{ "title": "ElectionTracker Intelligence — Senate and governor polling histories", "as_of": "2026-10-31", "release": "2026-10-31-history2", "election_day": "2026-11-03", "minimum_pollsters": 3, "methodology": { "window_days": 45, "recency_half_life_days": 14, "sample_reference_size": 1000, "sample_factor_limits": [ 0.7, 1.35 ], "registered_voter_factor": 0.75, "likely_voter_factor": 1, "pollster_policy": "one latest eligible general-election survey per distinct polling organization; independent published reports only; exclude unverifiable originals, internal/partisan surveys pending explicit review", "interpretation": "Averages of published candidate support, not modeled vote shares, election forecasts, probabilities of winning, or confidence intervals.", "comparability": "Alaska initial ranked-choice ballot shares are never combined with simulated final-round or unverified two-way head-to-head percentages; Georgia and North Carolina forced-choice 100% polls are listed but excluded from first-choice aggregates." }, "races": [ { "id": "tx-senate", "state": "Texas", "code": "TX", "race_name": "Texas U.S. Senate", "slug": "texas-2026", "candidates": { "dem": "James Talarico", "rep": "Ken Paxton" }, "polls": [ { "pollster": "Emerson College", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-01-10", "field_end": "2026-01-12", "published": "2026-01-15", "sample_size": 1165, "population": "RV", "dem": 46, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://emersoncollegepolling.com/texas-2026-poll/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. Hypothetical matchup before both primaries", "pollster_key": "emerson", "id": "tx-emerson-2026-01-12" }, { "pollster": "University of Houston Hobby School / YouGov", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-01-20", "field_end": "2026-01-31", "published": "2026-01-31", "sample_size": 1502, "population": "LV", "dem": 44, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites UH Hobby School release)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. Hypothetical matchup before primaries; other = Libertarian Ted Brown share as listed by aggregator", "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "tx-yougov-2026-01-31" }, { "pollster": "Public Policy Polling (D)", "sponsor": "Senate Majority PAC", "field_start": "2026-03-04", "field_end": "2026-03-05", "published": "2026-03-05", "sample_size": 576, "population": null, "dem": 47, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites Punchbowl News)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. Population listed as 'V' (voters)", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Senate Majority PAC, Democratic super PAC)", "pollster_key": "ppp", "id": "tx-ppp-2026-03-05" }, { "pollster": "Impact Research (D)", "sponsor": "Talarico campaign", "field_start": "2026-03-12", "field_end": "2026-03-17", "published": "2026-03-17", "sample_size": 900, "population": "LV", "dem": 44, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites Politico)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. other = Libertarian Ted Brown share as listed by aggregator", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Talarico campaign internal)", "pollster_key": "impact-research", "id": "tx-impact-research-2026-03-17" }, { "pollster": "University of Texas / Texas Politics Project", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-04-10", "field_end": "2026-04-20", "published": "2026-04-20", "sample_size": 1200, "population": "RV", "dem": 42, "rep": 34, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites UT/Texas Politics Project toplines)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head.", "pollster_key": "ut-tpp", "id": "tx-ut-tpp-2026-04-20" }, { "pollster": "Texas Public Opinion Research (D)", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-04-17", "field_end": "2026-04-20", "published": "2026-04-20", "sample_size": 1018, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 41, "source_url": "https://www.texastribune.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/TPOR-April-2026-TXSEN-poll.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. 270toWin lists n=1,865; release states 1,018 likely general-election voters", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Texas Public Opinion Research, Democratic-aligned firm)", "pollster_key": "tpor", "id": "tx-tpor-2026-04-20" }, { "pollster": "Texas Southern University", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-04-22", "field_end": "2026-05-06", "published": "2026-05-06", "sample_size": 1223, "population": "LV", "dem": 45, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://static1.squarespace.com/static/67aa7aa3e284b002cd6a420e/t/6a0addffcba58d0751053542/1779097087749/TSUTexasNov2026.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. Libertarian Ted Brown 2%; taken before Paxton won the May 26 runoff", "pollster_key": "tsu", "id": "tx-tsu-2026-05-06" }, { "pollster": "Public Policy Polling (D)", "sponsor": "Lone Star Rising PAC", "field_start": "2026-05-22", "field_end": "2026-05-23", "published": "2026-05-23", "sample_size": 643, "population": "RV", "dem": 45, "rep": 38, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites Politico-hosted PPP results)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. other = Libertarian Ted Brown share as listed by aggregator", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Lone Star Rising PAC, pro-Talarico)", "pollster_key": "ppp", "id": "tx-ppp-2026-05-23" }, { "pollster": "Texas Public Opinion Research (D)", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-05-27", "field_end": "2026-05-28", "published": "2026-05-28", "sample_size": 1670, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + 270toWin; cites TPOR release)", "matchup_note": "other = Libertarian Ted Brown share as listed by aggregator", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Texas Public Opinion Research, Democratic-aligned firm)", "pollster_key": "tpor", "id": "tx-tpor-2026-05-28" }, { "pollster": "Texas A&M University / ReconMR / Siena", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-06-01", "field_end": "2026-06-04", "published": "2026-06-04", "sample_size": 807, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites ReconMR crosstabs)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "nyt-siena", "id": "tx-nyt-siena-2026-06-04" }, { "pollster": "Quantus Insights", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-06-03", "field_end": "2026-06-04", "published": "2026-06-04", "sample_size": 800, "population": "LV", "dem": 43, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites Quantus Insights release)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "quantus", "id": "tx-quantus-2026-06-04" }, { "pollster": "University of Texas / Texas Politics Project", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-06-05", "field_end": "2026-06-12", "published": "2026-06-12", "sample_size": 1200, "population": "RV", "dem": 42, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/files/202608_POLL_TOPLINE-c5d4ba53.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "June figures shown as comparison column in Aug 2026 topline; other = Brown 3% (plus 'someone else' 3% listed separately)", "pollster_key": "ut-tpp", "id": "tx-ut-tpp-2026-06-12" }, { "pollster": "SoCal Strategies (R)", "sponsor": "Red Eagle Politics", "field_start": "2026-06-21", "field_end": "2026-06-21", "published": "2026-06-21", "sample_size": 800, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 49, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites SoCal Strategies Substack)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Red Eagle Politics, pro-Paxton)", "pollster_key": "socal-strategies", "id": "tx-socal-strategies-2026-06-21" }, { "pollster": "New York Times / Siena", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-06-19", "field_end": "2026-06-27", "published": "2026-06-27", "sample_size": 656, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites NYT/Siena toplines)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "nyt-siena", "id": "tx-nyt-siena-2026-06-27" }, { "pollster": "A2 Insights", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-06-23", "field_end": "2026-06-28", "published": "2026-06-28", "sample_size": 618, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + 270toWin; cites A2 Insights PDF)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Little-known pollster whose original release we could not inspect; listed for context, not averaged", "pollster_key": "a2-insights", "id": "tx-a2-insights-2026-06-28" }, { "pollster": "Texas Public Opinion Research (D)", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-07-15", "field_end": "2026-07-17", "published": "2026-07-17", "sample_size": 1048, "population": "LV", "dem": 45, "rep": 40, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites TPOR Substack)", "matchup_note": "other = Libertarian Ted Brown share as listed by aggregator", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Texas Public Opinion Research, Democratic-aligned firm)", "pollster_key": "tpor", "id": "tx-tpor-2026-07-17" }, { "pollster": "Fox News / Beacon–Shaw", "sponsor": "Fox News", "field_start": "2026-07-23", "field_end": "2026-07-27", "published": "2026-07-30", "sample_size": 1006, "population": "RV", "dem": 51, "rep": 48, "source_url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-gop-divisions-shape-texas-senate-race", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "fox", "id": "tx-fox-2026-07-27" }, { "pollster": "Texas Southern University", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-07-27", "field_end": "2026-07-30", "published": "2026-07-30", "sample_size": 1200, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites TSU release)", "matchup_note": "other = Libertarian Ted Brown share as listed by aggregator", "pollster_key": "tsu", "id": "tx-tsu-2026-07-30" }, { "pollster": "Texas A&M University / ReconMR / Siena", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-07-27", "field_end": "2026-07-30", "published": "2026-07-30", "sample_size": 619, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites ReconMR Texas Pulse release)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "nyt-siena", "id": "tx-nyt-siena-2026-07-30" }, { "pollster": "YouGov Blue (D)", "sponsor": "254 Labs", "field_start": "2026-07-15", "field_end": "2026-07-31", "published": "2026-07-31", "sample_size": 1001, "population": "RV", "dem": 48, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling; cites 254 Labs release)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (254 Labs / YouGov Blue, Democratic-aligned)", "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "tx-yougov-2026-07-31" }, { "pollster": "Emerson College", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-08-09", "field_end": "2026-08-10", "published": "2026-08-10", "sample_size": 1000, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites Emerson College release)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "emerson", "id": "tx-emerson-2026-08-10" }, { "pollster": "University of Texas / Texas Politics Project", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-08-05", "field_end": "2026-08-13", "published": "2026-08-13", "sample_size": 1200, "population": "RV", "dem": 42, "rep": 39, "source_url": "https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/files/202608_POLL_TOPLINE-c5d4ba53.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Libertarian Ted Brown 3%, someone else 1%; undecided = 'haven't thought about it enough'. RealClearPolling mislabels as 1,218 LV", "pollster_key": "ut-tpp", "id": "tx-ut-tpp-2026-08-13" }, { "pollster": "Texas Public Opinion Research (D)", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-08-21", "field_end": "2026-08-24", "published": "2026-08-24", "sample_size": 1000, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 42, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites TPOR Substack)", "matchup_note": "other = Libertarian Ted Brown share as listed by aggregator", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Texas Public Opinion Research, Democratic-aligned firm)", "pollster_key": "tpor", "id": "tx-tpor-2026-08-24" }, { "pollster": "Overton Insights (R)", "sponsor": "Texas Public Policy Foundation", "field_start": "2026-08-24", "field_end": "2026-08-26", "published": "2026-08-26", "sample_size": 1167, "population": "LV", "dem": 50.0, "rep": 50.0, "source_url": "https://overtoninsights.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Overton_Insights_Texas_Public_Policy_Foundation_Toplines_and_Demographics-3.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Forced-choice with leaners; initial ballot was Talarico 44.0, Paxton 43.4, undecided 12.6", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Texas Public Policy Foundation, conservative think tank)", "pollster_key": "overton-insights", "id": "tx-overton-insights-2026-08-26" }, { "pollster": "Fabrizio Ward (R) / Impact Research (D)", "sponsor": "AARP", "field_start": "2026-08-30", "field_end": "2026-09-01", "published": "2026-09-10", "sample_size": 895, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites AARP release)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Little-known pollster whose original release we could not inspect; listed for context, not averaged", "pollster_key": "fabrizio-ward", "id": "tx-fabrizio-ward-2026-09-01" }, { "pollster": "Univision / YouGov", "sponsor": "Univision News", "field_start": "2026-08-27", "field_end": "2026-09-04", "published": "2026-09-04", "sample_size": 1000, "population": "RV", "dem": 48, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://www.univision.com/noticias/politica/poll-univision-texas-2026", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "270toWin mislabels as LV; release says registered voters", "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "tx-yougov-2026-09-04" }, { "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-08", "field_end": "2026-09-09", "published": "2026-09-09", "sample_size": 1200, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites InsiderAdvantage toplines)", "matchup_note": "other = Libertarian Ted Brown share as listed by aggregator", "pollster_key": "insideradvantage", "id": "tx-insideradvantage-2026-09-09" }, { "pollster": "Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy", "sponsor": "Telemundo", "field_start": "2026-09-08", "field_end": "2026-09-10", "published": "2026-09-10", "sample_size": 625, "population": "RV", "dem": 46, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/28623723/tx926allvoterresults.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Libertarian Ted Brown 3%; registered voters who said they were likely to vote", "pollster_key": "mason-dixon", "id": "tx-mason-dixon-2026-09-10" }, { "pollster": "ReconMR / Siena", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-08", "field_end": "2026-09-11", "published": "2026-09-11", "sample_size": 614, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites ReconMR release)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "nyt-siena", "id": "tx-nyt-siena-2026-09-11" }, { "pollster": "SoCal Strategies", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-12", "field_end": "2026-09-13", "published": "2026-09-13", "sample_size": 649, "population": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites SoCal Strategies Substack)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Little-known pollster whose original release we could not inspect; listed for context, not averaged", "pollster_key": "socal-strategies", "id": "tx-socal-strategies-2026-09-13" }, { "pollster": "Emerson College", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-12", "field_end": "2026-09-14", "published": "2026-09-14", "sample_size": 1000, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites Emerson College release)", "matchup_note": "other = Libertarian Ted Brown share as listed by aggregator", "pollster_key": "emerson", "id": "tx-emerson-2026-09-14" }, { "pollster": "Trafalgar Group", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-15", "field_end": "2026-09-17", "published": "2026-09-17", "sample_size": 1079, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites Trafalgar report)", "matchup_note": "other = Libertarian Ted Brown share as listed by aggregator", "pollster_key": "trafalgar", "id": "tx-trafalgar-2026-09-17" }, { "pollster": "Texas Southern University", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-15", "field_end": "2026-09-19", "published": "2026-09-19", "sample_size": 1800, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites TSU release)", "matchup_note": "other = Libertarian Ted Brown share as listed by aggregator", "pollster_key": "tsu", "id": "tx-tsu-2026-09-19" }, { "pollster": "Marist University", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-17", "field_end": "2026-09-20", "published": "2026-09-20", "sample_size": 1139, "population": "RV", "dem": 50, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites Marist release)", "matchup_note": "Only RV figures published for this matchup", "pollster_key": "marist", "id": "tx-marist-2026-09-20" }, { "pollster": "Texas Public Opinion Research (D)", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-19", "field_end": "2026-09-22", "published": "2026-09-22", "sample_size": 1007, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites TPOR Substack)", "matchup_note": "other = Libertarian Ted Brown share as listed by aggregator", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Texas Public Opinion Research, Democratic-aligned firm)", "pollster_key": "tpor", "id": "tx-tpor-2026-09-22" }, { "pollster": "Stratus Intelligence (R)", "sponsor": "Texans for a Conservative Majority", "field_start": "2026-09-22", "field_end": "2026-09-24", "published": "2026-09-24", "sample_size": 856, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 48, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites Politico-hosted memo)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Texans for a Conservative Majority, Republican PAC)", "pollster_key": "stratus-intelligence", "id": "tx-stratus-intelligence-2026-09-24" }, { "pollster": "Big Data Poll", "sponsor": "Public Polling Project", "field_start": "2026-09-24", "field_end": "2026-09-26", "published": "2026-09-26", "sample_size": 698, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling; cites Big Data Poll blog)", "matchup_note": "other = third-party/other share as listed by aggregator", "pollster_key": "big-data", "id": "tx-big-data-2026-09-26" }, { "pollster": "Pulse Decision Science (R)", "sponsor": "Paxton campaign", "field_start": "2026-09-24", "field_end": "2026-09-27", "published": "2026-09-27", "sample_size": 800, "population": "LV", "dem": 45, "rep": 48, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites post on X)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Paxton campaign internal)", "pollster_key": "pulse-decision-science", "id": "tx-pulse-decision-science-2026-09-27" }, { "pollster": "UMass Lowell / YouGov", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-18", "field_end": "2026-09-28", "published": "2026-09-28", "sample_size": 850, "population": "LV", "dem": 45, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites UMass Lowell release)", "matchup_note": "other = Libertarian Ted Brown share as listed by aggregator", "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "tx-yougov-2026-09-28" }, { "pollster": "Guidant Polling & Strategy (R)", "sponsor": "Public First Action", "field_start": "2026-09-20", "field_end": "2026-09-28", "published": "2026-09-28", "sample_size": 800, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + 270toWin; cites NYT-hosted memo)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Public First Action, political advocacy group)", "pollster_key": "guidant-polling-strategy", "id": "tx-guidant-polling-strategy-2026-09-28" }, { "pollster": "Fox News / Beacon–Shaw", "sponsor": "Fox News", "field_start": "2026-09-24", "field_end": "2026-09-28", "published": "2026-10-01", "sample_size": 881, "population": "LV", "dem": 51, "rep": 49, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites Fox News topline)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Forced-choice result (undecided voters pushed, totals near 100%); listed but excluded from first-choice averages", "pollster_key": "fox", "id": "tx-fox-2026-09-28" }, { "pollster": "Rasmussen Reports", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-28", "field_end": "2026-09-29", "published": "2026-09-29", "sample_size": 1128, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling; cites Rasmussen toplines)", "matchup_note": "other = Libertarian Ted Brown share as listed by aggregator", "pollster_key": "rasmussen", "id": "tx-rasmussen-2026-09-29" }, { "pollster": "New York Times / Siena", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-21", "field_end": "2026-09-30", "published": "2026-10-03", "sample_size": 615, "population": "LV", "dem": 51, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites NYT/Siena toplines)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "nyt-siena", "id": "tx-nyt-siena-2026-09-30" }, { "pollster": "University of Texas / Texas Politics Project", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-25", "field_end": "2026-10-05", "published": "2026-10-05", "sample_size": 861, "population": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites UT/Texas Politics Project blog)", "matchup_note": "other = Libertarian Ted Brown share as listed by aggregator", "pollster_key": "ut-tpp", "id": "tx-ut-tpp-2026-10-05" }, { "pollster": "YouGov", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-28", "field_end": "2026-10-05", "published": "2026-10-05", "sample_size": 3625, "population": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_tx_20260921_lv.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "'Someone else' 2%, 1% will not vote in race; sponsor not stated in document", "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "tx-yougov-2026-10-05" }, { "pollster": "ReconMR / Siena", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-05", "field_end": "2026-10-08", "published": "2026-10-08", "sample_size": 617, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites ReconMR press release)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "nyt-siena", "id": "tx-nyt-siena-2026-10-08" }, { "pollster": "Trafalgar Group", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-06", "field_end": "2026-10-08", "published": "2026-10-08", "sample_size": 1086, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites Trafalgar report)", "matchup_note": "other = Libertarian Ted Brown share as listed by aggregator", "pollster_key": "trafalgar", "id": "tx-trafalgar-2026-10-08" }, { "pollster": "Marist University", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-08", "field_end": "2026-10-11", "published": "2026-10-11", "sample_size": null, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites Marist release)", "matchup_note": "LV n not published (1,196 is the RV sample); RV version 48-44 not used", "pollster_key": "marist", "id": "tx-marist-2026-10-11" }, { "pollster": "Quantus Insights", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-09", "field_end": "2026-10-11", "published": "2026-10-11", "sample_size": 854, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites Quantus Insights release)", "matchup_note": "other = Libertarian Ted Brown share as listed by aggregator; RealClearPolling lists n=839", "pollster_key": "quantus", "id": "tx-quantus-2026-10-11" }, { "pollster": "GS Strategy Group (R) / New River Strategies (D)", "sponsor": "Cook Political Report", "field_start": "2026-10-09", "field_end": "2026-10-13", "published": "2026-10-13", "sample_size": 934, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites Cook Political Report)", "matchup_note": "other = Libertarian Ted Brown share as listed by aggregator", "pollster_key": "cook-gs", "id": "tx-cook-gs-2026-10-13" }, { "pollster": "ActiVote", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-30", "field_end": "2026-10-14", "published": "2026-10-14", "sample_size": 400, "population": "LV", "dem": 51.9, "rep": 48.1, "source_url": "https://www.activote.net/polls/2026/tx-u-s-senate/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Field start per pollcheck.co.uk; ActiVote page gives only publish date", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Forced-choice result (undecided voters pushed, totals near 100%); listed but excluded from first-choice averages", "pollster_key": "activote", "id": "tx-activote-2026-10-14" }, { "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-13", "field_end": "2026-10-14", "published": "2026-10-14", "sample_size": 1200, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 49, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites InsiderAdvantage release)", "matchup_note": "other = Libertarian Ted Brown share as listed by aggregator", "pollster_key": "insideradvantage", "id": "tx-insideradvantage-2026-10-14" }, { "pollster": "Cor Strategies (R)", "sponsor": "Heritage Action", "field_start": "2026-10-10", "field_end": "2026-10-15", "published": "2026-10-15", "sample_size": 1409, "population": "LV", "dem": 44, "rep": 40, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites Daily Signal crosstabs)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Heritage Action, conservative advocacy group)", "pollster_key": "cor-strategies", "id": "tx-cor-strategies-2026-10-15" }, { "id": "tx-uh-oct15", "pollster": "University of Houston / Hobby School", "pollster_key": "uh-hobby", "sponsor": "University of Houston Hobby School", "field_start": "2026-10-10", "field_end": "2026-10-15", "published": "2026-10-19", "sample_size": 2000, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://www.uh.edu/news-events/stories/2026/october/10192026-hobby-texas-races.php", "source_kind": "university release", "matchup_note": "Three-way question included Brown (3%) and undecided (3%)." }, { "pollster": "CBS News / YouGov", "sponsor": "CBS News", "field_start": "2026-10-08", "field_end": "2026-10-16", "published": "2026-10-16", "sample_size": 1458, "population": "LV", "dem": 51, "rep": 49, "source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-senate-talarico-paxton-poll/", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "CBS article confirms dates and 1,492 RV total; LV n=1,458 and 51-49 from RealClearPolling/270toWin (chart numbers not in article text)", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Forced-choice result (undecided voters pushed, totals near 100%); listed but excluded from first-choice averages", "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "tx-yougov-2026-10-16" }, { "pollster": "Texas Public Opinion Research (D)", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-15", "field_end": "2026-10-18", "published": "2026-10-18", "sample_size": 969, "population": "LV", "dem": 51, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites TPOR Substack)", "matchup_note": "other = Libertarian Ted Brown share as listed by aggregator", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Texas Public Opinion Research, Democratic-aligned firm)", "pollster_key": "tpor", "id": "tx-tpor-2026-10-18" }, { "pollster": "Pollfinity Research", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-15", "field_end": "2026-10-18", "published": "2026-10-18", "sample_size": 278, "population": "RV", "dem": 48, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites Pollfinity release)", "matchup_note": "other = Libertarian Ted Brown share as listed by aggregator", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Little-known pollster whose original release we could not inspect; listed for context, not averaged", "pollster_key": "pollfinity-research", "id": "tx-pollfinity-research-2026-10-18" }, { "id": "tx-fox-oct19", "pollster": "Fox News / Beacon–Shaw", "pollster_key": "fox", "sponsor": "Fox News", "field_start": "2026-10-15", "field_end": "2026-10-19", "published": "2026-10-21", "sample_size": 1398, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 49, "source_url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-texas-senate-race-galloping-toward-photo-finish", "source_kind": "original poll coverage", "matchup_note": "Reported likely-voter matchup; 49% each." }, { "id": "tx-emerson-oct19", "pollster": "Emerson College / Nexstar", "pollster_key": "emerson", "sponsor": "Nexstar Media", "field_start": "2026-10-17", "field_end": "2026-10-19", "published": "2026-10-23", "sample_size": 1000, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://emersoncollegepolling.com/texas-2026-poll-toss-up/", "source_kind": "pollster release", "matchup_note": "First-choice question 48–46; the forced-lean follow-up (49–48) is deliberately not used." }, { "pollster": "Verasight / VoteHub", "sponsor": "VoteHub", "field_start": "2026-10-01", "field_end": "2026-10-20", "published": "2026-10-20", "sample_size": 509, "population": "LV", "dem": 47.6, "rep": 45.2, "source_url": "https://cdn.votehub.com/pdfs/VoteHub_Verasight_Oct_2026_Texas_Report_D8A925D0.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "LV with leaners; effective LV n=509 of 601 RV interviewed; Brown 1.4%, unsure 5.4% (0.4% missing)", "pollster_key": "votehub", "id": "tx-votehub-2026-10-20" }, { "pollster": "Univision / YouGov", "sponsor": "Univision News", "field_start": "2026-10-13", "field_end": "2026-10-21", "published": "2026-10-21", "sample_size": 1000, "population": "RV", "dem": 50, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling; cites Univision release)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "tx-yougov-2026-10-21" }, { "pollster": "ActiVote", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-17", "field_end": "2026-10-21", "published": "2026-10-21", "sample_size": 400, "population": "LV", "dem": 51.0, "rep": 49.0, "source_url": "https://www.activote.net/polls/2026/tx-u-s-senate/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Field dates per pollcheck.co.uk; ActiVote page gives only publish date", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Forced-choice result (undecided voters pushed, totals near 100%); listed but excluded from first-choice averages", "pollster_key": "activote", "id": "tx-activote-2026-10-21" }, { "pollster": "Rasmussen Reports", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-20", "field_end": "2026-10-21", "published": "2026-10-23", "sample_size": 965, "population": "LV", "dem": 45, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2026/election_2026_texas_senate", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Libertarian Ted Brown 5%", "pollster_key": "rasmussen", "id": "tx-rasmussen-2026-10-21" }, { "pollster": "Texas Southern University", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-21", "field_end": "2026-10-25", "published": "2026-10-25", "sample_size": 2000, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling; cites TSU release via WFAA)", "matchup_note": "other = Libertarian Ted Brown share as listed by aggregator", "pollster_key": "tsu", "id": "tx-tsu-2026-10-25" }, { "pollster": "YouGov Blue (D)", "sponsor": "254 Labs", "field_start": "2026-10-21", "field_end": "2026-10-26", "published": "2026-10-26", "sample_size": 1000, "population": "RV", "dem": 51, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites 254 Labs release)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (254 Labs / YouGov Blue, Democratic-aligned)", "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "tx-yougov-2026-10-26" }, { "pollster": "Data for Progress", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-23", "field_end": "2026-10-26", "published": "2026-10-30", "sample_size": 712, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/10/30/democratic-senate-candidates-lead-in-maine-michigan-and-texas", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Libertarian Ted Brown 2%; blog text gives Oct 23-27 field window for the 3-state batch; TX dates and n per pollcheck.co.uk", "pollster_key": "dfp", "id": "tx-dfp-2026-10-26" }, { "pollster": "CNN / SSRS", "sponsor": "CNN", "field_start": "2026-10-20", "field_end": "2026-10-27", "published": "2026-10-27", "sample_size": 923, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling; cites CNN/SSRS release)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "cnn-ssrs", "id": "tx-cnn-ssrs-2026-10-27" }, { "pollster": "A2 Insights", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-23", "field_end": "2026-10-27", "published": "2026-10-27", "sample_size": 631, "population": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites A2 Insights PDF)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Little-known pollster whose original release we could not inspect; listed for context, not averaged", "pollster_key": "a2-insights", "id": "tx-a2-insights-2026-10-27" }, { "pollster": "Quantus Insights", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-26", "field_end": "2026-10-28", "published": "2026-10-28", "sample_size": 1207, "population": "LV", "dem": 48.4, "rep": 49.4, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling; cites Quantus Insights release)", "matchup_note": "Libertarian Ted Brown 1.4%", "pollster_key": "quantus", "id": "tx-quantus-2026-10-28" }, { "pollster": "ActiVote", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-22", "field_end": "2026-10-28", "published": "2026-10-29", "sample_size": 400, "population": "LV", "dem": 52.1, "rep": 47.9, "source_url": "https://www.activote.net/polls/2026/tx-u-s-senate/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Forced-choice result (undecided voters pushed, totals near 100%); listed but excluded from first-choice averages", "pollster_key": "activote", "id": "tx-activote-2026-10-28" }, { "pollster": "KStrat", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-27", "field_end": "2026-10-30", "published": "2026-10-30", "sample_size": 900, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites KStrat press release)", "matchup_note": "Single-source (could not open KStrat release); other = Libertarian Ted Brown share as listed by aggregator", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Little-known pollster whose original release we could not inspect; listed for context, not averaged", "pollster_key": "kstrat", "id": "tx-kstrat-2026-10-30" } ] }, { "id": "me-senate", "state": "Maine", "code": "ME", "race_name": "Maine U.S. Senate", "slug": "maine-2026", "candidates": { "dem": "Troy Jackson", "rep": "Susan Collins" }, "polls": [ { "pollster": "Public Policy Polling (D)", "sponsor": "Graham Platner campaign", "field_start": "2026-07-07", "field_end": "2026-07-07", "published": "2026-07-07", "sample_size": 785, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/maine", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + Wikipedia polling table; cites Politico (archived))", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. Taken as Platner was withdrawing; Jackson not yet nominee", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Graham Platner campaign, testing replacement candidates)", "pollster_key": "ppp", "id": "me-ppp-2026-07-07" }, { "pollster": "Z to A Research (D)", "sponsor": "pro-Shah group", "field_start": "2026-07-07", "field_end": "2026-07-08", "published": "2026-07-08", "sample_size": 988, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 48, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/maine", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + Wikipedia polling table; cites NOTUS)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head.", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (group backing a rival Democratic contender (Shah))", "pollster_key": "z-to-a-research", "id": "me-z-to-a-research-2026-07-08" }, { "pollster": "University of New Hampshire Survey Center", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-07-15", "field_end": "2026-07-20", "published": "2026-07-20", "sample_size": 1178, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/maine", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + Wikipedia polling table; cites UNH Survey Center)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. Before Jackson's July 25 nomination", "pollster_key": "unh", "id": "me-unh-2026-07-20" }, { "pollster": "Hart Research (D)", "sponsor": "Senate Majority PAC", "field_start": "2026-07-27", "field_end": "2026-08-01", "published": "2026-08-01", "sample_size": 802, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/maine", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + Wikipedia polling table; cites Senate Majority PAC memo)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Senate Majority PAC, Democratic super PAC)", "pollster_key": "hart-research", "id": "me-hart-research-2026-08-01" }, { "pollster": "Fox News / Beacon–Shaw", "sponsor": "Fox News", "field_start": "2026-08-06", "field_end": "2026-08-10", "published": "2026-08-10", "sample_size": 1000, "population": "RV", "dem": 48, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/maine", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + Wikipedia polling table; cites Fox News)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "fox", "id": "me-fox-2026-08-10" }, { "pollster": "Abacus Data", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-08-26", "field_end": "2026-08-28", "published": "2026-08-28", "sample_size": 327, "population": "LV", "dem": 52, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/maine", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites Abacus Data release)", "matchup_note": "RV version (500 RV, 45-46) not used", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Little-known pollster whose original release we could not inspect; listed for context, not averaged", "pollster_key": "abacus-data", "id": "me-abacus-data-2026-08-28" }, { "pollster": "CNN / SSRS", "sponsor": "CNN", "field_start": "2026-08-31", "field_end": "2026-09-06", "published": "2026-09-06", "sample_size": 880, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/maine", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling; cites CNN/SSRS release)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "cnn-ssrs", "id": "me-cnn-ssrs-2026-09-06" }, { "pollster": "YouGov", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-02", "field_end": "2026-09-08", "published": "2026-09-08", "sample_size": 1335, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_me_20260902.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Sponsor not stated in document; RV version (1,378 RV, 46-44) not used", "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "me-yougov-2026-09-08" }, { "pollster": "Rasmussen Reports", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-08", "field_end": "2026-09-10", "published": "2026-09-10", "sample_size": 1033, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/maine", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling; cites Rasmussen Reports)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "rasmussen", "id": "me-rasmussen-2026-09-10" }, { "pollster": "UMass Lowell / YouGov", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-08-28", "field_end": "2026-09-14", "published": "2026-09-14", "sample_size": 650, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://www.uml.edu/research/public-opinion/polls/2026/2026-sept-maine-general.aspx", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "me-yougov-2026-09-14" }, { "pollster": "Quantus Insights", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-14", "field_end": "2026-09-15", "published": "2026-09-16", "sample_size": 621, "population": "LV", "dem": 47.4, "rep": 47.6, "source_url": "https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/09/16/poll-susan-collins-holds-narrow-lead-democrat-troy-jackson-maine/", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "With leaners; without leaners Collins 47.1, Jackson 46.4, undecided 5, other 1.5. 621 = ballot base of 644 LV", "pollster_key": "quantus", "id": "me-quantus-2026-09-15" }, { "pollster": "University of New Hampshire Survey Center", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-17", "field_end": "2026-09-21", "published": "2026-09-21", "sample_size": 1312, "population": "LV", "dem": 51, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/maine", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling; cites UNH Survey Center)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "unh", "id": "me-unh-2026-09-21" }, { "pollster": "New York Times / Siena", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-15", "field_end": "2026-09-22", "published": "2026-09-22", "sample_size": 619, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 49, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/maine", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling; cites New York Times)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "nyt-siena", "id": "me-nyt-siena-2026-09-22" }, { "pollster": "Fabrizio Ward (R) / Impact Research (D)", "sponsor": "AARP", "field_start": "2026-09-20", "field_end": "2026-09-22", "published": "2026-09-22", "sample_size": 982, "population": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/maine", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling; cites AARP release)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Little-known pollster whose original release we could not inspect; listed for context, not averaged", "pollster_key": "fabrizio-ward", "id": "me-fabrizio-ward-2026-09-22" }, { "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-22", "field_end": "2026-09-23", "published": "2026-09-23", "sample_size": 1200, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/maine", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling; cites InsiderAdvantage toplines)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "insideradvantage", "id": "me-insideradvantage-2026-09-23" }, { "pollster": "Maine People's Resource Center", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-25", "field_end": "2026-09-29", "published": "2026-09-29", "sample_size": 684, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/maine", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling; cites MPRC release)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Maine People's Resource Center, research arm of progressive Maine People's Alliance)", "pollster_key": "maine-people-s-resource-center", "id": "me-maine-people-s-resource-center-2026-09-29" }, { "pollster": "co/efficient", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-28", "field_end": "2026-09-30", "published": "2026-09-30", "sample_size": 1240, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 48, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/maine", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling; cites co/efficient battlegrounds page)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "coefficient", "id": "me-coefficient-2026-09-30" }, { "pollster": "CBS News / YouGov", "sponsor": "CBS News", "field_start": "2026-09-23", "field_end": "2026-10-01", "published": "2026-10-01", "sample_size": 1136, "population": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 50, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/maine", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling; cites CBS News)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Forced-choice result (undecided voters pushed, totals near 100%); listed but excluded from first-choice averages", "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "me-yougov-2026-10-01" }, { "pollster": "Trafalgar Group", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-29", "field_end": "2026-10-01", "published": "2026-10-01", "sample_size": 1091, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/maine", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling; cites Trafalgar Group)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "trafalgar", "id": "me-trafalgar-2026-10-01" }, { "id": "me-marist-oct04", "pollster": "Marist Poll", "pollster_key": "marist", "sponsor": "Marist College", "field_start": "2026-10-01", "field_end": "2026-10-04", "published": "2026-10-06", "sample_size": 1505, "population": "RV", "dem": 51, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/midterm-elections-in-maine-october-2026/", "source_kind": "pollster release", "matchup_note": "Registered voters, not likely voters; reduced weight and excluded by the LV-only filter." }, { "id": "me-gmu-oct05", "pollster": "Washington Post / GMU Schar", "pollster_key": "wapo-gmu", "sponsor": "The Washington Post / George Mason University", "field_start": "2026-09-30", "field_end": "2026-10-05", "published": "2026-10-09", "sample_size": 800, "population": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://schar.gmu.edu/news/2026-10/washington-post-schar-school-poll-finds-tight-senate-contest-maine", "source_kind": "university release", "matchup_note": "Likely-voter sample." }, { "pollster": "Rasmussen Reports", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-05", "field_end": "2026-10-08", "published": "2026-10-09", "sample_size": 804, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2026/election_2026_maine_senate", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "rasmussen", "id": "me-rasmussen-2026-10-08" }, { "pollster": "Suffolk University", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-08", "field_end": "2026-10-11", "published": "2026-10-11", "sample_size": 500, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/maine", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling; cites Suffolk University release)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "suffolk", "id": "me-suffolk-2026-10-11" }, { "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-13", "field_end": "2026-10-14", "published": "2026-10-14", "sample_size": 1200, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/maine", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling; cites InsiderAdvantage release)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "insideradvantage", "id": "me-insideradvantage-2026-10-14" }, { "id": "me-fox-oct20", "pollster": "Fox News / Beacon–Shaw", "pollster_key": "fox", "sponsor": "Fox News", "field_start": "2026-10-16", "field_end": "2026-10-20", "published": "2026-10-22", "sample_size": 1514, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 49, "source_url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-nail-biter-maine-senate-race", "source_kind": "original poll coverage", "matchup_note": "Likely-voter figures." }, { "pollster": "Echelon Insights", "sponsor": "NetChoice", "field_start": "2026-10-16", "field_end": "2026-10-23", "published": "2026-10-23", "sample_size": 413, "population": "LV", "dem": 51, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/maine", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites NetChoice topline)", "matchup_note": "Sponsor is a tech-industry trade group (not a party/campaign); pollster is Republican-aligned", "pollster_key": "echelon", "id": "me-echelon-2026-10-23" }, { "pollster": "Trafalgar Group", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-21", "field_end": "2026-10-23", "published": "2026-10-23", "sample_size": 1077, "population": "LV", "dem": 46.5, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/maine", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling; cites Trafalgar report)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "trafalgar", "id": "me-trafalgar-2026-10-23" }, { "pollster": "Marist University", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-22", "field_end": "2026-10-25", "published": "2026-10-25", "sample_size": null, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Marist-Poll_Maine-NOS-and-Tables_202610261228-3_43sjl2.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "LV n not published (1,449 is the RV sample; RealClearPolling mislabels it LV); RV version 53-44 not used", "pollster_key": "marist", "id": "me-marist-2026-10-25" }, { "pollster": "CNN / SSRS", "sponsor": "CNN", "field_start": "2026-10-20", "field_end": "2026-10-26", "published": "2026-10-26", "sample_size": 783, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/maine", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling; cites CNN/SSRS release)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "cnn-ssrs", "id": "me-cnn-ssrs-2026-10-26" }, { "pollster": "Data for Progress", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-23", "field_end": "2026-10-27", "published": "2026-10-30", "sample_size": 652, "population": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/10/30/democratic-senate-candidates-lead-in-maine-michigan-and-texas", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "n per pollcheck.co.uk (not in blog text)", "pollster_key": "dfp", "id": "me-dfp-2026-10-27" } ] }, { "id": "mi-senate", "state": "Michigan", "code": "MI", "race_name": "Michigan U.S. Senate", "slug": "michigan-2026", "candidates": { "dem": "Abdul El-Sayed", "rep": "Mike Rogers" }, "polls": [ { "pollster": "Glengariff Group", "sponsor": "Detroit News / WDIV-TV", "field_start": "2026-01-02", "field_end": "2026-01-06", "published": "2026-01-14", "sample_size": 600, "population": "LV", "dem": 41.6, "rep": 48.0, "source_url": "https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/local/2026/01/14/poll-michigan-voters-appear-to-favor-candidate-mike-rogers-for-us-senate/", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. Hypothetical; same poll also tested Stevens and McMorrow (not recorded)", "pollster_key": "glengariff", "id": "mi-glengariff-2026-01-06" }, { "pollster": "Emerson College", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-01-24", "field_end": "2026-01-25", "published": "2026-01-29", "sample_size": 1000, "population": "LV", "dem": 43, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://emersoncollegepolling.com/michigan-2026-poll-crowded-democratic-senate-primary-remains-wide-open/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. Hypothetical; RealClearPolling lists as RV, release says likely voters", "pollster_key": "emerson", "id": "mi-emerson-2026-01-25" }, { "pollster": "Glengariff Group", "sponsor": "Detroit Regional Chamber", "field_start": "2026-04-28", "field_end": "2026-05-01", "published": "2026-05-01", "sample_size": 600, "population": "LV", "dem": 40, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/michigan", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites Detroit Regional Chamber report)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. Hypothetical; aggregator lists a second version 42-45 not used", "pollster_key": "glengariff", "id": "mi-glengariff-2026-05-01" }, { "pollster": "Mitchell Research & Communications", "sponsor": "MIRS News", "field_start": "2026-05-01", "field_end": "2026-05-07", "published": "2026-05-07", "sample_size": 607, "population": "LV", "dem": 41, "rep": 42, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/michigan", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites MIRS/Mitchell press release)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head.", "pollster_key": "mitchell", "id": "mi-mitchell-2026-05-07" }, { "pollster": "TIPP Insights", "sponsor": "League of American Workers", "field_start": "2026-05-20", "field_end": "2026-05-23", "published": "2026-06-01", "sample_size": 1154, "population": "LV", "dem": 43, "rep": 42, "source_url": "https://tippinsights.com/league-of-american-workers-survey-michigan/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. LV n=1,154 per release; numbers from RealClearPolling/270toWin (toplines in spreadsheet)", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (League of American Workers, conservative group)", "pollster_key": "tipp", "id": "mi-tipp-2026-05-23" }, { "pollster": "Tulchin Research (D)", "sponsor": "Fighting for Michigan", "field_start": "2026-06-02", "field_end": "2026-06-04", "published": "2026-06-04", "sample_size": 500, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 41, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/michigan", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites memo on Google Drive)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head.", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Fighting for Michigan, pro-El-Sayed super PAC)", "pollster_key": "tulchin-research", "id": "mi-tulchin-research-2026-06-04" }, { "pollster": "Mitchell Research & Communications", "sponsor": "MIRS News", "field_start": "2026-06-11", "field_end": "2026-06-13", "published": "2026-06-13", "sample_size": 827, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 42, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/michigan", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites MIRS/Mitchell press release)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head.", "pollster_key": "mitchell", "id": "mi-mitchell-2026-06-13" }, { "pollster": "Zenith Research (D)", "sponsor": "Common Defense", "field_start": "2026-06-11", "field_end": "2026-06-14", "published": "2026-06-14", "sample_size": 602, "population": "LV", "dem": 45, "rep": 42, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/michigan", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + 270toWin; cites memo on Google Drive)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head.", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Common Defense, pro-El-Sayed group)", "pollster_key": "zenith-research", "id": "mi-zenith-research-2026-06-14" }, { "pollster": "Data for Progress (D)", "sponsor": "Working Families Party", "field_start": "2026-06-15", "field_end": "2026-06-22", "published": "2026-06-22", "sample_size": 709, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/michigan", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites WFP memo)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head.", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Working Families Party, pro-El-Sayed)", "pollster_key": "dfp", "id": "mi-dfp-2026-06-22" }, { "pollster": "Quantus Insights", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-06-29", "field_end": "2026-06-30", "published": "2026-06-30", "sample_size": 947, "population": "LV", "dem": 45, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/michigan", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites Quantus Insights release)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head.", "pollster_key": "quantus", "id": "mi-quantus-2026-06-30" }, { "pollster": "Glengariff Group", "sponsor": "Michigan Education Association / Business Leaders for Michigan", "field_start": "2026-07-22", "field_end": "2026-07-24", "published": "2026-07-24", "sample_size": 600, "population": "LV", "dem": 39, "rep": 49, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/michigan", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + 270toWin; cites MEA survey report)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. Co-sponsored by teachers' union and business group", "pollster_key": "glengariff", "id": "mi-glengariff-2026-07-24" }, { "pollster": "Mitchell Research & Communications", "sponsor": "MIRS News", "field_start": "2026-07-28", "field_end": "2026-07-29", "published": "2026-07-29", "sample_size": 672, "population": "LV", "dem": 45, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/michigan", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites Mitchell press release)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head.", "pollster_key": "mitchell", "id": "mi-mitchell-2026-07-29" }, { "pollster": "SoCal Strategies (R)", "sponsor": "Red Eagle Politics", "field_start": "2026-07-28", "field_end": "2026-07-30", "published": "2026-07-30", "sample_size": 640, "population": "LV", "dem": 41, "rep": 42, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/michigan", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites SoCal Strategies Substack)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head.", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Red Eagle Politics, conservative outlet)", "pollster_key": "socal-strategies", "id": "mi-socal-strategies-2026-07-30" }, { "pollster": "EPIC-MRA", "sponsor": "MIRS News", "field_start": "2026-07-24", "field_end": "2026-07-31", "published": "2026-07-31", "sample_size": 600, "population": "LV", "dem": 43, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/michigan", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites EPIC-MRA frequencies)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head.", "pollster_key": "epic-mra", "id": "mi-epic-mra-2026-07-31" }, { "pollster": "GBAO (D)", "sponsor": "Senate Majority PAC", "field_start": "2026-08-06", "field_end": "2026-08-10", "published": "2026-08-10", "sample_size": 800, "population": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/michigan", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites Politico-hosted memo)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Senate Majority PAC, Democratic super PAC)", "pollster_key": "gbao", "id": "mi-gbao-2026-08-10" }, { "pollster": "TIPP Insights", "sponsor": "League of American Workers", "field_start": "2026-08-06", "field_end": "2026-08-10", "published": "2026-08-10", "sample_size": 1215, "population": "LV", "dem": 45, "rep": 42, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/michigan", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites TIPP Insights release)", "matchup_note": "RV version (1,528 RV, 43-39) not used", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (League of American Workers, conservative group)", "pollster_key": "tipp", "id": "mi-tipp-2026-08-10" }, { "pollster": "Fox News / Beacon–Shaw", "sponsor": "Fox News", "field_start": "2026-08-06", "field_end": "2026-08-10", "published": "2026-08-13", "sample_size": 1006, "population": "RV", "dem": 47, "rep": 51, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/michigan", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites Fox News topline)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "fox", "id": "mi-fox-2026-08-10" }, { "pollster": "Fabrizio Ward (R) / Impact Research (D)", "sponsor": "AARP", "field_start": "2026-08-09", "field_end": "2026-08-11", "published": "2026-08-11", "sample_size": 877, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/michigan", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites AARP release)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Little-known pollster whose original release we could not inspect; listed for context, not averaged", "pollster_key": "fabrizio-ward", "id": "mi-fabrizio-ward-2026-08-11" }, { "pollster": "Susquehanna Polling & Research", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-08-11", "field_end": "2026-08-17", "published": "2026-08-17", "sample_size": 800, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 39, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/michigan", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites Susquehanna toplines)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "susquehanna", "id": "mi-susquehanna-2026-08-17" }, { "pollster": "Michigan State University / YouGov", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-08-10", "field_end": "2026-08-20", "published": "2026-08-20", "sample_size": 779, "population": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/michigan", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites MSU IPPSR release)", "matchup_note": "RV version (913 RV, 48-44) not used", "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "mi-yougov-2026-08-20" }, { "pollster": "EPIC-MRA", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-08-22", "field_end": "2026-08-28", "published": "2026-08-28", "sample_size": 600, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://ssl2002.webhosting.comcast.net/epic-mra/press/Stwd_Survey_Aug2026_Media_Freq.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Totals include leaners; pollster's separate 'simulated' allocation of undecideds (50-45) not used", "pollster_key": "epic-mra", "id": "mi-epic-mra-2026-08-28" }, { "pollster": "Abacus Data", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-08-26", "field_end": "2026-08-28", "published": "2026-08-28", "sample_size": 332, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/michigan", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites Abacus Data release)", "matchup_note": "RV version (500 RV, 48-41) not used", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Little-known pollster whose original release we could not inspect; listed for context, not averaged", "pollster_key": "abacus-data", "id": "mi-abacus-data-2026-08-28" }, { "pollster": "Glengariff Group", "sponsor": "Detroit News / WDIV-TV", "field_start": "2026-08-31", "field_end": "2026-09-03", "published": "2026-09-03", "sample_size": 600, "population": "LV", "dem": 44, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/michigan", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites Detroit News / ClickOnDetroit)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "glengariff", "id": "mi-glengariff-2026-09-03" }, { "pollster": "CNN / SSRS", "sponsor": "CNN", "field_start": "2026-08-31", "field_end": "2026-09-06", "published": "2026-09-06", "sample_size": 843, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/michigan", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites CNN/SSRS release)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "cnn-ssrs", "id": "mi-cnn-ssrs-2026-09-06" }, { "pollster": "Trafalgar Group", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-07", "field_end": "2026-09-09", "published": "2026-09-09", "sample_size": 1079, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/michigan", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites Trafalgar report)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "trafalgar", "id": "mi-trafalgar-2026-09-09" }, { "pollster": "Washington Post / George Mason", "sponsor": "Washington Post", "field_start": "2026-09-10", "field_end": "2026-09-14", "published": "2026-09-14", "sample_size": 803, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/michigan", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites Washington Post)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "wapo-gmu", "id": "mi-wapo-gmu-2026-09-14" }, { "pollster": "Emerson College", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-12", "field_end": "2026-09-14", "published": "2026-09-14", "sample_size": 1000, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/michigan", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites Emerson College release)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "emerson", "id": "mi-emerson-2026-09-14" }, { "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-16", "field_end": "2026-09-17", "published": "2026-09-17", "sample_size": 1200, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/michigan", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites InsiderAdvantage toplines)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "insideradvantage", "id": "mi-insideradvantage-2026-09-17" }, { "pollster": "Torchlight Strategies (R)", "sponsor": "Common Sense for America PAC", "field_start": "2026-09-15", "field_end": "2026-09-19", "published": "2026-09-19", "sample_size": 643, "population": "LV", "dem": 43, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/michigan", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites Washington Reporter)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Common Sense for America PAC, Republican-aligned)", "pollster_key": "torchlight-strategies", "id": "mi-torchlight-strategies-2026-09-19" }, { "pollster": "Suffolk University", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-16", "field_end": "2026-09-20", "published": "2026-09-20", "sample_size": 500, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 40, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/michigan", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites Suffolk University marginals)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "suffolk", "id": "mi-suffolk-2026-09-20" }, { "pollster": "Cygnal / Beacon Research", "sponsor": "Michigan Enjoyer", "field_start": "2026-09-18", "field_end": "2026-09-21", "published": "2026-09-21", "sample_size": 600, "population": "LV", "dem": 45, "rep": 40, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/michigan", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites enjoyer.com)", "matchup_note": "Sponsor's affiliation not verified", "pollster_key": "cygnal", "id": "mi-cygnal-2026-09-21" }, { "pollster": "New York Times / Siena", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-15", "field_end": "2026-09-22", "published": "2026-09-22", "sample_size": 605, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/michigan", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites NYT/Siena toplines)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "nyt-siena", "id": "mi-nyt-siena-2026-09-22" }, { "pollster": "GBAO (D)", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-19", "field_end": "2026-09-22", "published": "2026-09-22", "sample_size": 800, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/michigan", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites Politico Playbook)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (GBAO, Democratic firm; client not disclosed)", "pollster_key": "gbao", "id": "mi-gbao-2026-09-22" }, { "pollster": "Rasmussen Reports", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-22", "field_end": "2026-09-22", "published": "2026-09-24", "sample_size": 1099, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://www.newsweek.com/abdul-el-sayed-leading-in-michigan-with-republican-pollster-12490204", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "Libertarian Christensen 2%, U.S. Taxpayers Long 1%", "pollster_key": "rasmussen", "id": "mi-rasmussen-2026-09-22" }, { "pollster": "co/efficient", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-21", "field_end": "2026-09-23", "published": "2026-09-23", "sample_size": 843, "population": "LV", "dem": 45, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/mi/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Full ballot (Libertarian Christensen 2%); forced two-way 50-50 (used by RealClearPolling) not used", "pollster_key": "coefficient", "id": "mi-coefficient-2026-09-23" }, { "pollster": "Big Data Poll", "sponsor": "Public Polling Project", "field_start": "2026-09-22", "field_end": "2026-09-24", "published": "2026-09-24", "sample_size": 678, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 42, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/michigan", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling; cites Big Data Poll blog)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "big-data", "id": "mi-big-data-2026-09-24" }, { "pollster": "Guidant Polling & Strategy", "sponsor": "Public First Action", "field_start": "2026-09-20", "field_end": "2026-09-27", "published": "2026-09-27", "sample_size": 800, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/michigan", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + 270toWin; cites NYT-hosted memo)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Public First Action, political advocacy group)", "pollster_key": "guidant-polling-strategy", "id": "mi-guidant-polling-strategy-2026-09-27" }, { "pollster": "Marist University", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-24", "field_end": "2026-09-27", "published": "2026-09-27", "sample_size": 1235, "population": "RV", "dem": 51, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/michigan", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites Marist release)", "matchup_note": "Only RV figures listed by aggregators", "pollster_key": "marist", "id": "mi-marist-2026-09-27" }, { "pollster": "The Tyson Group (R)", "sponsor": "Alliance for a Better Future", "field_start": "2026-09-24", "field_end": "2026-09-27", "published": "2026-09-27", "sample_size": 600, "population": "LV", "dem": 44, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/michigan", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites sponsor memo)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Alliance for a Better Future, advocacy group)", "pollster_key": "tyson-group", "id": "mi-tyson-group-2026-09-27" }, { "id": "mi-fox-sep28", "pollster": "Fox News / Beacon–Shaw", "pollster_key": "fox", "sponsor": "Fox News", "field_start": "2026-09-24", "field_end": "2026-09-28", "published": "2026-09-30", "sample_size": null, "population": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 49, "source_url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-michigan-voters-split-between-el-sayed-rogers", "source_kind": "original poll coverage", "matchup_note": "Likely-voter results; published Sept. 30." }, { "pollster": "Trafalgar Group", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-28", "field_end": "2026-09-30", "published": "2026-09-30", "sample_size": 1085, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/michigan", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites Trafalgar report)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "trafalgar", "id": "mi-trafalgar-2026-09-30" }, { "pollster": "Z to A Research (D)", "sponsor": "Rust Belt Rising", "field_start": "2026-09-28", "field_end": "2026-10-01", "published": "2026-10-01", "sample_size": 483, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 42, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/michigan", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + 270toWin; cites post on X)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Rust Belt Rising, Democratic-aligned group)", "pollster_key": "z-to-a-research", "id": "mi-z-to-a-research-2026-10-01" }, { "pollster": "Mitchell Research & Communications", "sponsor": "Michigan TV stations (CBS Detroit et al.)", "field_start": "2026-10-01", "field_end": "2026-10-01", "published": "2026-10-01", "sample_size": 682, "population": "LV", "dem": 45.6, "rep": 41.4, "source_url": "https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5f14ae6fb2a20e01e9c6d608/t/6ac40987eb519d3ce159c107/1791232391610/Mitchell%2BMI%2BPoll%2BUS%2BSENATE%2BPress%2BRelease%2B1043PM%2B10-4-26_A.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "other = sum of four minor-party candidates (Christensen 3, Kristy 2, Long 1, Marsh 1); RealClearPolling lists n=680", "pollster_key": "mitchell", "id": "mi-mitchell-2026-10-01" }, { "id": "mi-yougov-oct05", "pollster": "YouGov", "pollster_key": "yougov", "sponsor": "YouGov", "field_start": "2026-09-28", "field_end": "2026-10-05", "published": "2026-10-07", "sample_size": 3949, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 48, "source_url": "https://yougov.com/en-us/articles/55703-new-polls-in-seven-states-show-tight-races-for-senate-and-governor-in-each-including-leads-for-talarico-brown-and-acton", "source_kind": "pollster research summary / public toplines", "matchup_note": "Primary YouGov release provides methodology; 49–48 cross-checked in public poll tables." }, { "pollster": "Quantus Insights", "sponsor": null, "field_start": null, "field_end": "2026-10-06", "published": "2026-10-06", "sample_size": 762, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://quantusinsights.org/f/michigan-senate-el-sayed-48-rogers-47-at-four-weeks-out", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Release says only 'October'; aggregators give Oct 5-6 field dates", "pollster_key": "quantus", "id": "mi-quantus-2026-10-06" }, { "pollster": "The Tyson Group (R)", "sponsor": "Alliance for a Better Future", "field_start": "2026-10-06", "field_end": "2026-10-08", "published": "2026-10-08", "sample_size": 600, "population": "LV", "dem": 44, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/michigan", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites sponsor memo)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Alliance for a Better Future, advocacy group)", "pollster_key": "tyson-group", "id": "mi-tyson-group-2026-10-08" }, { "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-09", "field_end": "2026-10-10", "published": "2026-10-10", "sample_size": 1200, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/michigan", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites InsiderAdvantage release)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "insideradvantage", "id": "mi-insideradvantage-2026-10-10" }, { "pollster": "Rasmussen Reports", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-12", "field_end": "2026-10-14", "published": "2026-10-16", "sample_size": 798, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2026/election_2026_michigan_senate", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Christensen (L) 2, Long (UST) 2, Marsh (G) 1", "pollster_key": "rasmussen", "id": "mi-rasmussen-2026-10-14" }, { "id": "mi-marist-oct18", "pollster": "Marist Poll", "pollster_key": "marist", "sponsor": "Marist College", "field_start": "2026-10-15", "field_end": "2026-10-18", "published": "2026-10-21", "sample_size": null, "population": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 48, "source_url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/midterm-elections-in-michigan-october-2026/", "source_kind": "pollster release", "matchup_note": "LV subsample size not confirmed; 1,185 is the registered-voter base, not entered as LV n." }, { "pollster": "Michigan State University / YouGov", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-02", "field_end": "2026-10-19", "published": "2026-10-19", "sample_size": 836, "population": "LV", "dem": 48.0, "rep": 45.5, "source_url": "https://ippsr.msu.edu/sites/default/files/soss/soss95.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "With leaners; initial ballot 47.7-44.2 (8.2 undecided/other); undecided here = 'undecided/neither'", "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "mi-yougov-2026-10-19" }, { "pollster": "Glengariff Group", "sponsor": "Detroit News / WDIV-TV", "field_start": "2026-10-19", "field_end": "2026-10-22", "published": "2026-10-22", "sample_size": 600, "population": "LV", "dem": 51, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/michigan", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling + 270toWin; cites ClickOnDetroit)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "glengariff", "id": "mi-glengariff-2026-10-22" }, { "id": "mi-insider-oct22", "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage", "pollster_key": "insideradvantage", "sponsor": "Unconfirmed", "field_start": "2026-10-21", "field_end": "2026-10-22", "published": "2026-10-23", "sample_size": 1200, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://www.pollingforecast.com/us/polls/1000933", "source_kind": "third-party listing, original release pending", "included": false, "matchup_note": "More recent poll listed by an aggregator; withheld until its original release is independently inspected." }, { "pollster": "Michigan State University / Verasight", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-08", "field_end": "2026-10-23", "published": "2026-10-23", "sample_size": 1383, "population": "LV", "dem": 51, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/michigan", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites MSU Political Science)", "matchup_note": "Aggregator lists a second version 48-42; this is its primary version. Single-source", "pollster_key": "votehub", "id": "mi-votehub-2026-10-23", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Found only on an aggregator; could not confirm against an original release" }, { "pollster": "RedBox Research (D)", "sponsor": "A Fight Worth Having", "field_start": "2026-10-20", "field_end": "2026-10-23", "published": "2026-10-23", "sample_size": 2696, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/michigan", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites sponsor site)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (A Fight Worth Having, Democratic-aligned super PAC)", "pollster_key": "redbox-research", "id": "mi-redbox-research-2026-10-23" }, { "pollster": "Data for Progress", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-23", "field_end": "2026-10-25", "published": "2026-10-30", "sample_size": 622, "population": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/10/30/democratic-senate-candidates-lead-in-maine-michigan-and-texas", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Third-party candidates each 1% or less; dates and n per pollcheck.co.uk", "pollster_key": "dfp", "id": "mi-dfp-2026-10-25" }, { "pollster": "CNN / SSRS", "sponsor": "CNN", "field_start": "2026-10-20", "field_end": "2026-10-27", "published": "2026-10-27", "sample_size": 768, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 42, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/michigan", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling; cites CNN/SSRS release)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "cnn-ssrs", "id": "mi-cnn-ssrs-2026-10-27" }, { "pollster": "Mitchell Research & Communications", "sponsor": "CBS Detroit and other Michigan TV stations", "field_start": "2026-10-26", "field_end": "2026-10-27", "published": "2026-10-28", "sample_size": 636, "population": "LV", "dem": 51, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/detroit/news/el-sayed-widens-lead-rogers-michigan-senate-poll/", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "Third-party candidates each 1% or less", "pollster_key": "mitchell", "id": "mi-mitchell-2026-10-27" }, { "pollster": "Upswing Research (D)", "sponsor": "Demand Justice", "field_start": "2026-10-24", "field_end": "2026-10-28", "published": "2026-10-28", "sample_size": 505, "population": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/michigan", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites post on X)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Demand Justice, progressive advocacy group)", "pollster_key": "upswing", "id": "mi-upswing-2026-10-28" }, { "pollster": "Rasmussen Reports", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-28", "field_end": "2026-10-29", "published": "2026-10-29", "sample_size": 745, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/michigan", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + RealClearPolling; cites Rasmussen Reports)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "rasmussen", "id": "mi-rasmussen-2026-10-29" } ] }, { "id": "nc-senate", "state": "North Carolina", "code": "NC", "race_name": "North Carolina U.S. Senate", "slug": "north-carolina-2026", "candidates": { "dem": "Roy Cooper", "rep": "Michael Whatley" }, "polls": [ { "pollster": "Change Research", "sponsor": "Carolina Forward", "field_start": "2026-01-05", "field_end": "2026-01-07", "published": "2026-01-07", "sample_size": 1105, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 42, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_North_Carolina#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Carolina Forward)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head.", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Carolina Forward, progressive advocacy group; Democratic-affiliated pollster)", "pollster_key": "change-research", "id": "nc-change-research-2026-01-07" }, { "pollster": "TIPP Insights", "sponsor": "League of American Workers", "field_start": "2026-01-12", "field_end": "2026-01-15", "published": "2026-01-15", "sample_size": 1512, "population": "RV", "dem": 48, "rep": 24, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_North_Carolina#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites TIPP Insights / League of American Workers)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. Sponsor per pollcheck.co.uk", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (League of American Workers; flagged (R) by Wikipedia)", "pollster_key": "tipp", "id": "nc-tipp-2026-01-15" }, { "pollster": "Change Research", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-01-31", "field_end": "2026-02-04", "published": "2026-02-04", "sample_size": 1069, "population": "RV", "dem": 50, "rep": 40, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_North_Carolina#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Change Research memo)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head.", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Democratic-affiliated Change Research; sponsor not disclosed; flagged (D) by Wikipedia and marked partisan by RealClearPolling)", "pollster_key": "change-research", "id": "nc-change-research-2026-02-04" }, { "pollster": "Nexus Strategies / Strategic Partners Solutions", "sponsor": "Healthier United", "field_start": "2026-03-08", "field_end": "2026-03-09", "published": "2026-03-09", "sample_size": 800, "population": "RV", "dem": 50, "rep": 32, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_North_Carolina#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Carolina Journal report)", "matchup_note": "Sponsor per pollcheck.co.uk; sponsor's political alignment not verified", "pollster_key": "nexus-strategies", "id": "nc-nexus-strategies-2026-03-09" }, { "pollster": "Public Policy Polling", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-03-13", "field_end": "2026-03-14", "published": "2026-03-14", "sample_size": 556, "population": null, "dem": 47, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_North_Carolina#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Public Policy Polling)", "matchup_note": "Population listed as 'V' (unclear); Democratic-affiliated firm, no sponsor disclosed", "pollster_key": "ppp", "id": "nc-ppp-2026-03-14" }, { "pollster": "Catawba College / YouGov", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-03-09", "field_end": "2026-03-18", "published": "2026-03-18", "sample_size": 1000, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 34, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_North_Carolina#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Catawba College)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "nc-yougov-2026-03-18" }, { "pollster": "Harper Polling", "sponsor": "The Carolina Journal (John Locke Foundation)", "field_start": "2026-03-22", "field_end": "2026-03-23", "published": "2026-03-23", "sample_size": 600, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 41, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_North_Carolina#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Carolina Journal)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Carolina Journal / John Locke Foundation, conservative think tank; Republican-affiliated pollster)", "pollster_key": "harper", "id": "nc-harper-2026-03-23" }, { "pollster": "Quantus Insights", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-03-31", "field_end": "2026-04-01", "published": "2026-04-01", "sample_size": 987, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_North_Carolina#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Quantus Insights)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "quantus", "id": "nc-quantus-2026-04-01" }, { "pollster": "High Point University / YouGov", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-03-26", "field_end": "2026-04-06", "published": "2026-04-06", "sample_size": 703, "population": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 42, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_North_Carolina#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites High Point University)", "matchup_note": "RV version (800 RV): Cooper 49, Whatley 39", "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "nc-yougov-2026-04-06" }, { "pollster": "Opinion Diagnostics", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-04-21", "field_end": "2026-04-24", "published": "2026-04-24", "sample_size": 830, "population": null, "dem": 50, "rep": 41, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_North_Carolina#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites The Center Square report)", "matchup_note": "Population listed as 'V' (unclear)", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (listed as Republican-sponsored (R) by Wikipedia; sponsor not named)", "pollster_key": "opinion-diagnostics", "id": "nc-opinion-diagnostics-2026-04-24" }, { "pollster": "Change Research", "sponsor": "Carolina Forward", "field_start": "2026-05-04", "field_end": "2026-05-08", "published": "2026-05-08", "sample_size": 957, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 42, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_North_Carolina#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Carolina Forward)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Carolina Forward, progressive advocacy group; Democratic-affiliated pollster)", "pollster_key": "change-research", "id": "nc-change-research-2026-05-08" }, { "pollster": "Harper Polling", "sponsor": "The Carolina Journal (John Locke Foundation)", "field_start": "2026-05-10", "field_end": "2026-05-11", "published": "2026-05-11", "sample_size": 600, "population": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 39, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_North_Carolina#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites The Center Square)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Carolina Journal / John Locke Foundation, conservative think tank (sponsor per RealClearPolling); Republican-affiliated pollster)", "pollster_key": "harper", "id": "nc-harper-2026-05-11" }, { "pollster": "Catawba College / YouGov", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-06-01", "field_end": "2026-06-10", "published": "2026-06-10", "sample_size": 905, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 34, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_North_Carolina#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Catawba College)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "nc-yougov-2026-06-10" }, { "pollster": "New York Times / Siena University", "sponsor": "The New York Times", "field_start": "2026-06-15", "field_end": "2026-06-27", "published": "2026-06-27", "sample_size": 601, "population": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_North_Carolina#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites New York Times)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "nyt-siena", "id": "nc-nyt-siena-2026-06-27" }, { "pollster": "Public Policy Polling", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-07-10", "field_end": "2026-07-11", "published": "2026-07-11", "sample_size": 759, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_North_Carolina#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Public Policy Polling)", "matchup_note": "Democratic-affiliated firm, self-released (no sponsor disclosed); RealClearPolling lists sample as RV", "pollster_key": "ppp", "id": "nc-ppp-2026-07-11" }, { "pollster": "Fox News / Beacon–Shaw", "sponsor": "Fox News", "field_start": "2026-07-23", "field_end": "2026-07-27", "published": "2026-07-27", "sample_size": 1005, "population": "RV", "dem": 53, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_North_Carolina#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Fox News)", "matchup_note": "Only an RV figure was released", "pollster_key": "fox", "id": "nc-fox-2026-07-27" }, { "pollster": "Elon University / YouGov", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-07-23", "field_end": "2026-07-31", "published": "2026-07-31", "sample_size": 466, "population": "LV", "dem": 53, "rep": 42, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_North_Carolina#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Elon University)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "nc-yougov-2026-07-31" }, { "pollster": "Change Research", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-07-29", "field_end": "2026-08-01", "published": "2026-08-01", "sample_size": 967, "population": null, "dem": 50, "rep": 41, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_North_Carolina#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Gary Pearce Substack)", "matchup_note": "Population listed as 'V' (unclear)", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Democratic-affiliated Change Research; sponsor not disclosed; flagged (D) by Wikipedia and marked partisan by RealClearPolling)", "pollster_key": "change-research", "id": "nc-change-research-2026-08-01" }, { "pollster": "Change Research", "sponsor": "Carolina Forward", "field_start": "2026-08-03", "field_end": "2026-08-06", "published": "2026-08-06", "sample_size": 915, "population": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_North_Carolina#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Carolina Forward)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Carolina Forward, progressive advocacy group; Democratic-affiliated pollster)", "pollster_key": "change-research", "id": "nc-change-research-2026-08-06" }, { "pollster": "Harper Polling", "sponsor": "The Carolina Journal (John Locke Foundation)", "field_start": "2026-08-09", "field_end": "2026-08-10", "published": "2026-08-10", "sample_size": 600, "population": "LV", "dem": 52, "rep": 39, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_North_Carolina#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Carolina Journal)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Carolina Journal / John Locke Foundation, conservative think tank; Republican-affiliated pollster)", "pollster_key": "harper", "id": "nc-harper-2026-08-10" }, { "pollster": "High Point University / YouGov", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-08-03", "field_end": "2026-08-12", "published": "2026-08-12", "sample_size": 660, "population": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_North_Carolina#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites High Point University)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "nc-yougov-2026-08-12" }, { "pollster": "Elon University / YouGov", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-08-21", "field_end": "2026-08-31", "published": "2026-08-31", "sample_size": 565, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 38, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_North_Carolina#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Elon University)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "nc-yougov-2026-08-31" }, { "pollster": "East Carolina University", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-08-31", "field_end": "2026-09-03", "published": "2026-09-03", "sample_size": 675, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 39, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_North_Carolina#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites East Carolina University)", "matchup_note": "Initial measure; alternate (forced-choice / leaners pushed) version: Cooper 52, Whatley 44", "pollster_key": "ecu", "id": "nc-ecu-2026-09-03" }, { "pollster": "The Trafalgar Group", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-08", "field_end": "2026-09-10", "published": "2026-09-10", "sample_size": 1084, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 42, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_North_Carolina#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites The Trafalgar Group)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "trafalgar", "id": "nc-trafalgar-2026-09-10" }, { "pollster": "Harper Polling", "sponsor": "The Carolina Journal (John Locke Foundation)", "field_start": "2026-09-13", "field_end": "2026-09-15", "published": "2026-09-17", "sample_size": 608, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 34, "source_url": "https://newsweek.com/gop-faces-devastating-north-carolina-poll-from-republican-pollster-12457781", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Carolina Journal / John Locke Foundation, conservative think tank; Republican-affiliated pollster)", "pollster_key": "harper", "id": "nc-harper-2026-09-15" }, { "pollster": "Catawba College / YouGov", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-04", "field_end": "2026-09-15", "published": "2026-09-30", "sample_size": 885, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 35, "source_url": "https://www.catawba.edu/news/all-news/2026/yougov-39/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Not in Wikipedia table. With leaners: Cooper 48, Whatley 37; other/undecided not broken out", "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "nc-yougov-2026-09-15" }, { "pollster": "High Point University", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-09", "field_end": "2026-09-16", "published": "2026-09-16", "sample_size": 706, "population": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 42, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_North_Carolina#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites High Point University)", "matchup_note": "RV version (813 RV): Cooper 49, Whatley 39", "pollster_key": "high-point", "id": "nc-high-point-2026-09-16" }, { "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-16", "field_end": "2026-09-17", "published": "2026-09-17", "sample_size": 1200, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_North_Carolina#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites InsiderAdvantage)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "insideradvantage", "id": "nc-insideradvantage-2026-09-17" }, { "pollster": "YouGov", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-15", "field_end": "2026-09-18", "published": "2026-09-18", "sample_size": 3742, "population": "LV", "dem": 53, "rep": 41, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_North_Carolina#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites YouGov)", "matchup_note": "Loose likely-voter version; strict LV (3,511): Cooper 54, Whatley 41; RV (3,864): 52-41", "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "nc-yougov-2026-09-18" }, { "pollster": "Opinion Diagnostics", "sponsor": "Common Cause North Carolina", "field_start": "2026-09-17", "field_end": "2026-09-20", "published": "2026-09-20", "sample_size": 857, "population": "LV", "dem": 51.3, "rep": 41.3, "source_url": "https://www.commoncause.org/north-carolina/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/CCNC-Sep-2026-Poll-Release-1.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Initial ballot, model of record; with leaners: Cooper 51.7, Whatley 43.5", "pollster_key": "opinion-diagnostics", "id": "nc-opinion-diagnostics-2026-09-20" }, { "pollster": "Fabrizio Ward (R) / Impact Research (D)", "sponsor": "AARP", "field_start": "2026-09-17", "field_end": "2026-09-20", "published": "2026-09-28", "sample_size": 1115, "population": "LV", "dem": 53, "rep": 42, "source_url": "https://www.newsweek.com/cooper-flips-trump-margin-with-independents-by-29-points-as-whatley-flops-12498753", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "Not in Wikipedia table. Other/undecided reported combined at 5%; pollcheck.co.uk lists n=1,806 (likely incl. 50+ oversample)", "pollster_key": "fabrizio-ward", "id": "nc-fabrizio-ward-2026-09-20" }, { "pollster": "Quantus Insights", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-21", "field_end": "2026-09-22", "published": "2026-09-22", "sample_size": 686, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_North_Carolina#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Quantus Insights)", "matchup_note": "RealClearPolling lists n=688", "pollster_key": "quantus", "id": "nc-quantus-2026-09-22" }, { "pollster": "Rasmussen Reports", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-22", "field_end": "2026-09-22", "published": "2026-09-24", "sample_size": 1047, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 41, "source_url": "https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2026/election_2026_north_carolina_senate", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Not in Wikipedia table. Other = Bray (L) 3%, Dublin (G) 1%", "pollster_key": "rasmussen", "id": "nc-rasmussen-2026-09-22" }, { "pollster": "Big Data Poll", "sponsor": "Public Polling Project (crowdfunded)", "field_start": "2026-09-27", "field_end": "2026-09-29", "published": "2026-09-30", "sample_size": 642, "population": "LV", "dem": 47.4, "rep": 35.2, "source_url": "https://www.bigdatapoll.com/blog/tar-heel-state-poll-roy-cooper-holds-solid-lead-over-michael-whatley-for-us-senate-in-north-carolina/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Not in Wikipedia table. Initial ballot; with leaners: Cooper 50.8, Whatley 38.5", "pollster_key": "big-data", "id": "nc-big-data-2026-09-29" }, { "pollster": "East Carolina University", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-30", "field_end": "2026-10-03", "published": "2026-10-08", "sample_size": 810, "population": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenews.com/pr/ecu-poll-cooper-s-lead-holds-at-7-points", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Initial measure; forced-choice / leaners pushed version: Cooper 53, Whatley 46", "pollster_key": "ecu", "id": "nc-ecu-2026-10-03" }, { "id": "nc-change-oct07", "pollster": "Change Research / Carolina Forward", "pollster_key": "change-research", "sponsor": "Carolina Forward", "field_start": "2026-10-01", "field_end": "2026-10-07", "published": "2026-10-13", "sample_size": 829, "population": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 40, "source_url": "https://carolinaforward.org/news/the-october-2026-carolina-forward-poll/", "source_kind": "commissioner release / downloadable toplines", "matchup_note": "Sponsored by Carolina Forward (advocacy group); see linked toplines for wording." }, { "id": "nc-elon-oct08", "pollster": "Elon University / YouGov", "pollster_key": "yougov", "sponsor": "Elon University", "field_start": "2026-09-29", "field_end": "2026-10-08", "published": "2026-10-20", "sample_size": null, "population": "LV", "dem": 52, "rep": 39, "source_url": "https://www.elon.edu/u/news/2026/10/20/final-elon-university-poll-before-election-day-cooper-has-double-digit-lead-over-whatley-in-nc-us-senate-race/", "source_kind": "university original release", "matchup_note": "52–39 first-choice likely-voter responses. 800 is the all-adults survey size; LV subsample n is not assumed." }, { "pollster": "The Trafalgar Group", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-08", "field_end": "2026-10-10", "published": "2026-10-10", "sample_size": 1091, "population": "LV", "dem": 48.8, "rep": 40.9, "source_url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/NC-Gen-Sen-Poll-Report-1011.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Other = Dublin 2.0% + Bray 1.4%", "pollster_key": "trafalgar", "id": "nc-trafalgar-2026-10-10" }, { "id": "nc-surveyusa-oct11", "pollster": "SurveyUSA / WRAL–WSOC", "pollster_key": "surveyusa", "sponsor": "WRAL-TV and WSOC-TV", "field_start": "2026-10-07", "field_end": "2026-10-11", "published": "2026-10-13", "sample_size": 643, "population": "LV", "dem": 54, "rep": 40, "source_url": "https://results.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0a876c84-9a95-4995-9218-82b1015f5d77", "source_kind": "pollster original report", "matchup_note": "First-choice responses; sample includes those already voted according to source." }, { "id": "nc-activote-oct20", "pollster": "ActiVote", "pollster_key": "activote", "sponsor": "ActiVote", "field_start": "2026-10-08", "field_end": "2026-10-20", "published": "2026-10-20", "sample_size": 400, "population": "LV", "dem": 56.9, "rep": 43.1, "source_url": "https://www.activote.net/polls/2026/nc-u-s-senate/2026-10-20", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Forced two-candidate 100% allocation; excluded from first-choice average.", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Different response format: forced two-candidate split without undecideds" }, { "pollster": "Harper Polling", "sponsor": "The Carolina Journal (John Locke Foundation)", "field_start": "2026-10-18", "field_end": "2026-10-20", "published": "2026-10-22", "sample_size": 600, "population": "LV", "dem": 49.4, "rep": 39.1, "source_url": "https://www.carolinajournal.com/polls/october-2026-coopers-lead-over-whatley-narrows-to-10-points-in-nc-senate-race/", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "Full ballot (Bray L 2.9, Dublin G 1.9); head-to-head: Cooper 51.6, Whatley 42.0", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Carolina Journal / John Locke Foundation, conservative think tank; Republican-affiliated pollster)", "pollster_key": "harper", "id": "nc-harper-2026-10-20" }, { "pollster": "High Point University / YouGov", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-01", "field_end": "2026-10-20", "published": "2026-10-28", "sample_size": 620, "population": "LV", "dem": 54, "rep": 40, "source_url": "https://www.highpoint.edu/blog/2026/10/hpu-yougov-poll-north-carolina-likely-voters-weigh-in-on-u-s-senate-race-and-more/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Undecided figure is 'unsure/would not vote'", "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "nc-yougov-2026-10-20" }, { "pollster": "Quantus Insights", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-24", "field_end": "2026-10-25", "published": "2026-10-25", "sample_size": 722, "population": "LV", "dem": 51, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/north-carolina", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites https://quantusinsights.org/polling/f/north-carolina-senate-cooper-holds-a-9-point-lead-over-whatley; original not opened); matches RealClearPolling", "matchup_note": "Headline version; other versions listed: 52-43 (722 LV), 53-44 and 54-45 (702 LV, likely head-to-head/leaners)", "pollster_key": "quantus", "id": "nc-quantus-2026-10-25" } ] }, { "id": "oh-senate", "state": "Ohio", "code": "OH", "race_name": "Ohio U.S. Senate", "slug": "ohio-2026", "candidates": { "dem": "Sherrod Brown", "rep": "Jon Husted" }, "polls": [ { "pollster": "EMC Research", "sponsor": "Ohio Environmental Council", "field_start": "2026-02-10", "field_end": "2026-02-22", "published": "2026-02-22", "sample_size": 1343, "population": "LV", "dem": 51, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Ohio#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Ohio Environmental Council)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head.", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Ohio Environmental Council, advocacy group; Democratic-affiliated pollster)", "pollster_key": "emc-research", "id": "oh-emc-research-2026-02-22" }, { "pollster": "OnMessage Public Strategies", "sponsor": "Insurance Watchdog Coalition", "field_start": "2026-03-03", "field_end": "2026-03-08", "published": "2026-03-08", "sample_size": 600, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Ohio#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Politico)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head.", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Insurance Watchdog Coalition, advocacy group; Republican-affiliated pollster)", "pollster_key": "onmessage-public-strategies", "id": "oh-onmessage-public-strategies-2026-03-08" }, { "pollster": "Quantus Insights", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-03-13", "field_end": "2026-03-14", "published": "2026-03-14", "sample_size": 784, "population": "LV", "dem": 44, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Ohio#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Quantus Insights)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head.", "pollster_key": "quantus", "id": "oh-quantus-2026-03-14" }, { "pollster": "Echelon Insights", "sponsor": "NetChoice", "field_start": "2026-04-03", "field_end": "2026-04-09", "published": "2026-04-09", "sample_size": 413, "population": "LV", "dem": 45, "rep": 51, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Ohio#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites NetChoice)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. Sponsor is a tech-industry trade group, not a party or campaign", "pollster_key": "echelon", "id": "oh-echelon-2026-04-09" }, { "pollster": "Bowling Green State University / YouGov", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-04-07", "field_end": "2026-04-14", "published": "2026-04-14", "sample_size": 1000, "population": "RV", "dem": 47, "rep": 50, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Ohio#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Bowling Green State University)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head.", "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "oh-yougov-2026-04-14" }, { "pollster": "Fox News / Beacon–Shaw", "sponsor": "Fox News", "field_start": "2026-05-28", "field_end": "2026-06-01", "published": "2026-06-01", "sample_size": 1015, "population": "RV", "dem": 53, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Ohio#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Fox News)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "fox", "id": "oh-fox-2026-06-01" }, { "pollster": "Tulchin Research", "sponsor": "John Kulewicz campaign (Democratic AG candidate)", "field_start": "2026-06-02", "field_end": "2026-06-04", "published": "2026-06-04", "sample_size": 600, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 42, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Ohio#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites NBC4)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (John Kulewicz, Democratic candidate for Attorney General)", "pollster_key": "tulchin-research", "id": "oh-tulchin-research-2026-06-04" }, { "pollster": "Fabrizio Ward (R) / Impact Research (D)", "sponsor": "AARP", "field_start": "2026-06-14", "field_end": "2026-06-16", "published": "2026-06-16", "sample_size": 800, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Ohio#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites AARP)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "fabrizio-ward", "id": "oh-fabrizio-ward-2026-06-16" }, { "pollster": "New York Times / Siena University", "sponsor": "The New York Times", "field_start": "2026-06-15", "field_end": "2026-06-28", "published": "2026-06-28", "sample_size": 601, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 50, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Ohio#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites New York Times)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "nyt-siena", "id": "oh-nyt-siena-2026-06-28" }, { "pollster": "Tulchin Research", "sponsor": "John Kulewicz campaign (Democratic AG candidate)", "field_start": "2026-07-29", "field_end": "2026-08-04", "published": "2026-08-04", "sample_size": 600, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Ohio#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites DocumentCloud memo)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (John Kulewicz, Democratic candidate for Attorney General)", "pollster_key": "tulchin-research", "id": "oh-tulchin-research-2026-08-04" }, { "pollster": "Fox News / Beacon–Shaw", "sponsor": "Fox News", "field_start": "2026-08-06", "field_end": "2026-08-10", "published": "2026-08-10", "sample_size": 1008, "population": "RV", "dem": 53, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Ohio#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Fox News)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "fox", "id": "oh-fox-2026-08-10" }, { "pollster": "Abacus Data", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-08-26", "field_end": "2026-08-28", "published": "2026-08-28", "sample_size": 306, "population": "LV", "dem": 52, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Ohio#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Abacus Data)", "matchup_note": "RV version (500 RV): Brown 53, Husted 43", "pollster_key": "abacus-data", "id": "oh-abacus-data-2026-08-28" }, { "pollster": "Concord Public Opinion Partners", "sponsor": "Democrats for Education Reform (per pollcheck.co.uk)", "field_start": "2026-08-29", "field_end": "2026-08-31", "published": "2026-08-31", "sample_size": 504, "population": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 40, "source_url": "https://concordpublicopinionpartners.org/polls/ohio-ge-2026", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Not in Wikipedia table. Sponsor attribution unconfirmed on the release itself", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Democrats for Education Reform per pollcheck.co.uk; release page names no sponsor)", "pollster_key": "concord-public-opinion-partners", "id": "oh-concord-public-opinion-partners-2026-08-31" }, { "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-08", "field_end": "2026-09-09", "published": "2026-09-09", "sample_size": 1200, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 42, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Ohio#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites InsiderAdvantage)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "insideradvantage", "id": "oh-insideradvantage-2026-09-09" }, { "pollster": "Bowling Green State University / YouGov", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-01", "field_end": "2026-09-10", "published": "2026-09-10", "sample_size": 1000, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Ohio#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Bowling Green State University)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "oh-yougov-2026-09-10" }, { "pollster": "The Trafalgar Group", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-14", "field_end": "2026-09-16", "published": "2026-09-16", "sample_size": 1085, "population": "LV", "dem": 45, "rep": 42, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Ohio#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites The Trafalgar Group)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "trafalgar", "id": "oh-trafalgar-2026-09-16" }, { "pollster": "Quantus Insights", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-21", "field_end": "2026-09-23", "published": "2026-09-23", "sample_size": 695, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Ohio#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Quantus Insights)", "matchup_note": "Alternate version: Brown 46, Husted 45, other 4, undecided 6", "pollster_key": "quantus", "id": "oh-quantus-2026-09-23" }, { "pollster": "Rasmussen Reports", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-22", "field_end": "2026-09-23", "published": "2026-09-23", "sample_size": 1115, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Ohio#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Rasmussen Reports)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "rasmussen", "id": "oh-rasmussen-2026-09-23" }, { "pollster": "Suffolk University", "sponsor": "USA Today", "field_start": "2026-09-23", "field_end": "2026-09-27", "published": "2026-09-27", "sample_size": 500, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Ohio#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Suffolk University / USA Today)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "suffolk", "id": "oh-suffolk-2026-09-27" }, { "pollster": "Marist University", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-24", "field_end": "2026-09-27", "published": "2026-09-27", "sample_size": 1298, "population": "RV", "dem": 51, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Ohio#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Marist Poll)", "matchup_note": "Only an RV figure listed", "pollster_key": "marist", "id": "oh-marist-2026-09-27" }, { "pollster": "Big Data Poll", "sponsor": "Public Polling Project (crowdfunded)", "field_start": "2026-09-26", "field_end": "2026-09-27", "published": "2026-09-27", "sample_size": 680, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Ohio#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Big Data Poll)", "matchup_note": "Alternate LV version: Brown 46, Husted 41, other 8, undecided 6; RV (735): 45-41", "pollster_key": "big-data", "id": "oh-big-data-2026-09-27" }, { "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-28", "field_end": "2026-09-29", "published": "2026-09-29", "sample_size": 1200, "population": "LV", "dem": 44, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Ohio#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites InsiderAdvantage)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "insideradvantage", "id": "oh-insideradvantage-2026-09-29" }, { "pollster": "YouGov", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-18", "field_end": "2026-09-30", "published": "2026-09-30", "sample_size": 3780, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Ohio#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites YouGov)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "oh-yougov-2026-09-30" }, { "pollster": "New York Times / Siena University", "sponsor": "The New York Times", "field_start": "2026-09-22", "field_end": "2026-10-01", "published": "2026-10-01", "sample_size": 616, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Ohio#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites New York Times)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "nyt-siena", "id": "oh-nyt-siena-2026-10-01" }, { "pollster": "CNN / SSRS", "sponsor": "CNN", "field_start": "2026-09-29", "field_end": "2026-10-05", "published": "2026-10-05", "sample_size": 760, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Ohio#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites CNN)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "cnn-ssrs", "id": "oh-cnn-ssrs-2026-10-05" }, { "pollster": "co/efficient", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-05", "field_end": "2026-10-06", "published": "2026-10-06", "sample_size": 925, "population": "LV", "dem": 45, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Ohio#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites co/efficient)", "matchup_note": "Alternate version: Brown 43, Husted 44, other 4, undecided 9", "pollster_key": "coefficient", "id": "oh-coefficient-2026-10-06" }, { "id": "oh-bgsu-oct09", "pollster": "Bowling Green State / YouGov", "pollster_key": "yougov", "sponsor": "Bowling Green State University", "field_start": "2026-09-29", "field_end": "2026-10-09", "published": "2026-10-16", "sample_size": 1000, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 42, "source_url": "https://www.bgsu.edu/arts-and-sciences/democracy-and-public-policy-research-network/bgsu-poll.html", "source_kind": "university original toplines", "matchup_note": "University/YouGov poll of 1,000 likely voters; nonresponse not reassigned." }, { "pollster": "GS Strategy Group (R) / New River Strategies (D)", "sponsor": "Cook Political Report", "field_start": "2026-10-09", "field_end": "2026-10-13", "published": "2026-10-13", "sample_size": 959, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://www.cookpolitical.com/system/files/2026-10/1112%20CPR%20Senate%20Battleground%20Poll%20Topline.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Not in Wikipedia table. Includes leaners; other = Redpath (L) 3%, Levy (I) 4%", "pollster_key": "cook-gs", "id": "oh-cook-gs-2026-10-13" }, { "pollster": "Rasmussen Reports", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-12", "field_end": "2026-10-14", "published": "2026-10-19", "sample_size": 901, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 49, "source_url": "https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2026/election_2026_ohio_senate", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Not in Wikipedia table", "pollster_key": "rasmussen", "id": "oh-rasmussen-2026-10-14" }, { "pollster": "ActiVote", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-26", "field_end": "2026-10-18", "published": "2026-10-18", "sample_size": 400, "population": "LV", "dem": 49.8, "rep": 50.2, "source_url": "https://www.activote.net/polls/2026/oh-u-s-senate/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "forced-choice / leaners pushed (two-way result sums to 100%); app-based panel; not in Wikipedia table", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Forced-choice result (undecided voters pushed, totals near 100%); listed but excluded from first-choice averages", "pollster_key": "activote", "id": "oh-activote-2026-10-18" }, { "id": "oh-marist-oct18", "pollster": "Marist Poll", "pollster_key": "marist", "sponsor": "Marist University", "field_start": "2026-10-15", "field_end": "2026-10-18", "published": "2026-10-20", "sample_size": null, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/midterm-elections-in-ohio-october-2026/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Likely-voter subsample size not inferred from full registered-voter base." }, { "id": "oh-fox-oct19", "pollster": "Fox News / Beacon–Shaw", "pollster_key": "fox", "sponsor": "Fox News", "field_start": "2026-10-15", "field_end": "2026-10-19", "published": "2026-10-21", "sample_size": 1592, "population": "LV", "dem": 52, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-gender-gap-pocketbook-pain-shape-ohio-senate-race", "source_kind": "original news outlet poll report", "matchup_note": "Likely voters, survey sample n=1,592." }, { "pollster": "Verasight / VoteHub", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-01", "field_end": "2026-10-20", "published": "2026-10-20", "sample_size": 531, "population": "LV", "dem": 47.5, "rep": 43.6, "source_url": "https://cdn.votehub.com/pdfs/VoteHub_Verasight_Oct_2026_Ohio_Report_D1CB7735.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Not in Wikipedia table. LV with leaners (Redpath 1.1, Levy 1.0); initial LV: Brown 45.4, Husted 40.7; n is effective LV n", "pollster_key": "votehub", "id": "oh-votehub-2026-10-20" }, { "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-21", "field_end": "2026-10-22", "published": "2026-10-22", "sample_size": 1200, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/ohio-special", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-senate-surveys-mi-el-sayed-47-rogers-46-ia-hinson-47-turek-45-oh-brown-47-husted-44/; original not opened); numbers match release headline", "matchup_note": "Not in Wikipedia table", "pollster_key": "insideradvantage", "id": "oh-insideradvantage-2026-10-22" }, { "pollster": "RedBox Research", "sponsor": "A Fight Worth Having (super PAC)", "field_start": "2026-10-20", "field_end": "2026-10-23", "published": "2026-10-25", "sample_size": 2998, "population": "LV", "dem": 46.9, "rep": 44.2, "source_url": "https://afightworthhaving.com/polling/2026/ohio", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Not in Wikipedia table. Other = Levy 1.2, Redpath 0.9, someone else 0.8; also prefer not to answer 1.4", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (A Fight Worth Having, Democratic-aligned super PAC)", "pollster_key": "redbox-research", "id": "oh-redbox-research-2026-10-23" }, { "pollster": "Echelon Insights", "sponsor": "NetChoice", "field_start": "2026-10-16", "field_end": "2026-10-23", "published": "2026-10-27", "sample_size": 508, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://netchoice.org/netchoice-echelon-insights-poll-voters-rank-ai-regulation-far-behind-cost-of-living-want-one-national-ai-standard/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Not in Wikipedia table. Other = Levy 2%, Redpath (L) 1%; sponsor is a tech-industry trade group", "pollster_key": "echelon", "id": "oh-echelon-2026-10-23" }, { "pollster": "Suffolk University", "sponsor": "USA Today Network Ohio", "field_start": "2026-10-21", "field_end": "2026-10-26", "published": "2026-10-28", "sample_size": 500, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/other-states/2026/10_28_2026_ohio_press_release.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Not in Wikipedia table", "pollster_key": "suffolk", "id": "oh-suffolk-2026-10-26" } ] }, { "id": "ia-senate", "state": "Iowa", "code": "IA", "race_name": "Iowa U.S. Senate", "slug": "iowa-2026", "candidates": { "dem": "Josh Turek", "rep": "Ashley Hinson" }, "polls": [ { "pollster": "Change Research", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-01-08", "field_end": "2026-01-11", "published": "2026-01-11", "sample_size": 1108, "population": "LV", "dem": 41, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Iowa#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites X/Twitter post by Ben Jacobs)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head.", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Democratic-affiliated Change Research; sponsor not disclosed; flagged (D) by Wikipedia)", "pollster_key": "change-research", "id": "ia-change-research-2026-01-11" }, { "pollster": "GQR", "sponsor": "Josh Turek campaign", "field_start": "2026-03-10", "field_end": "2026-03-16", "published": "2026-03-16", "sample_size": 1200, "population": "LV", "dem": 43, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Iowa#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Politico)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head.", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Josh Turek campaign)", "pollster_key": "gqr", "id": "ia-gqr-2026-03-16" }, { "pollster": "Echelon Insights", "sponsor": "NetChoice", "field_start": "2026-04-03", "field_end": "2026-04-09", "published": "2026-04-09", "sample_size": 377, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Iowa#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites NetChoice)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. Sponsor is a tech-industry trade group, not a party or campaign", "pollster_key": "echelon", "id": "ia-echelon-2026-04-09" }, { "pollster": "Public Policy Polling", "sponsor": "DSCC", "field_start": "2026-06-03", "field_end": "2026-06-04", "published": "2026-06-04", "sample_size": 557, "population": "RV", "dem": 46, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Iowa#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Politico)", "matchup_note": "RealClearPolling lists sample as LV", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (DSCC (Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee))", "pollster_key": "ppp", "id": "ia-ppp-2026-06-04" }, { "pollster": "Global Strategy Group", "sponsor": "Josh Turek campaign", "field_start": "2026-06-08", "field_end": "2026-06-11", "published": "2026-06-11", "sample_size": 1000, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Iowa#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Politico)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Josh Turek campaign)", "pollster_key": "global-strategy-group", "id": "ia-global-strategy-group-2026-06-11" }, { "pollster": "Cygnal", "sponsor": "Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation", "field_start": "2026-06-16", "field_end": "2026-06-19", "published": "2026-06-19", "sample_size": 600, "population": "LV", "dem": 44, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Iowa#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Iowans for Tax Relief)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation, conservative advocacy group; Republican-affiliated pollster)", "pollster_key": "cygnal", "id": "ia-cygnal-2026-06-19" }, { "pollster": "New York Times / Siena University", "sponsor": "The New York Times", "field_start": "2026-06-15", "field_end": "2026-06-27", "published": "2026-06-27", "sample_size": 600, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 48, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Iowa#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites New York Times)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "nyt-siena", "id": "ia-nyt-siena-2026-06-27" }, { "pollster": "Fox News / Beacon–Shaw", "sponsor": "Fox News", "field_start": "2026-06-23", "field_end": "2026-06-27", "published": "2026-06-27", "sample_size": 1003, "population": "RV", "dem": 50, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Iowa#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Fox News)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "fox", "id": "ia-fox-2026-06-27" }, { "pollster": "Emerson College", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-08-02", "field_end": "2026-08-04", "published": "2026-08-04", "sample_size": 712, "population": "LV", "dem": 45, "rep": 48, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Iowa#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Emerson College)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "emerson", "id": "ia-emerson-2026-08-04" }, { "pollster": "Suffolk University", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-08-20", "field_end": "2026-08-23", "published": "2026-08-23", "sample_size": 500, "population": "LV", "dem": 41, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Iowa#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Suffolk University)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "suffolk", "id": "ia-suffolk-2026-08-23" }, { "pollster": "Abacus Data", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-08-26", "field_end": "2026-08-28", "published": "2026-08-28", "sample_size": 323, "population": "LV", "dem": 54, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Iowa#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Abacus Data)", "matchup_note": "RV version (500 RV): Turek 52, Hinson 46", "pollster_key": "abacus-data", "id": "ia-abacus-data-2026-08-28" }, { "pollster": "Global Strategy Group", "sponsor": "Josh Turek campaign", "field_start": "2026-08-27", "field_end": "2026-08-31", "published": "2026-08-31", "sample_size": 800, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 42, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/iowa", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites Global Strategy Group memo (cdn.sanity.io); original not opened)", "matchup_note": "Not in Wikipedia or RealClearPolling tables", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Josh Turek campaign)", "pollster_key": "global-strategy-group", "id": "ia-global-strategy-group-2026-08-31" }, { "pollster": "Emerson College", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-08-31", "field_end": "2026-09-01", "published": "2026-09-01", "sample_size": 750, "population": "LV", "dem": 45, "rep": 50, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Iowa#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Emerson College)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "emerson", "id": "ia-emerson-2026-09-01" }, { "pollster": "YouGov", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-03", "field_end": "2026-09-08", "published": "2026-09-08", "sample_size": 2127, "population": "LV", "dem": 45, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/iowa_election_20260903.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Not in Wikipedia table. Loose LV; 'will not vote in race' 1%; strict LV (2,041): Turek 47, Hinson 43, other 1, undecided 8", "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "ia-yougov-2026-09-08" }, { "pollster": "Rasmussen Reports", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-08", "field_end": "2026-09-10", "published": "2026-09-10", "sample_size": 1031, "population": "LV", "dem": 45, "rep": 40, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/iowa", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2026/iowa_senate_turek_leads_by_5_points; original not opened); matches RealClearPolling", "matchup_note": "Not in Wikipedia table", "pollster_key": "rasmussen", "id": "ia-rasmussen-2026-09-10" }, { "pollster": "Cygnal", "sponsor": "Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation", "field_start": "2026-09-09", "field_end": "2026-09-11", "published": "2026-09-11", "sample_size": 500, "population": "LV", "dem": 42.9, "rep": 42.9, "source_url": "https://itrfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/ITR-Foundation-Poll-Toplines-09-11-2026.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Not in Wikipedia table. Other = Laehn (L) 3.6%", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation, conservative advocacy group; Republican-affiliated pollster)", "pollster_key": "cygnal", "id": "ia-cygnal-2026-09-11" }, { "pollster": "co/efficient", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-14", "field_end": "2026-09-16", "published": "2026-09-16", "sample_size": 831, "population": "LV", "dem": 42, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/iowa", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/ia/; original not opened)", "matchup_note": "Not in Wikipedia table. Alternate version: Turek 43, Hinson 48 (used by RealClearPolling)", "pollster_key": "coefficient", "id": "ia-coefficient-2026-09-16" }, { "pollster": "The Trafalgar Group", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-16", "field_end": "2026-09-18", "published": "2026-09-18", "sample_size": 1089, "population": "LV", "dem": 42.1, "rep": 44.0, "source_url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/IA-Midterms-Full-Report-0918.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Not in Wikipedia table. Other = Laehn 3.4%", "pollster_key": "trafalgar", "id": "ia-trafalgar-2026-09-18" }, { "pollster": "Marist University", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-17", "field_end": "2026-09-20", "published": "2026-09-22", "sample_size": 1050, "population": "RV", "dem": 50, "rep": 42, "source_url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/2026-midterm-elections-in-iowa-september-2026/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Not in Wikipedia table. Only an RV figure released", "pollster_key": "marist", "id": "ia-marist-2026-09-20" }, { "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-22", "field_end": "2026-09-23", "published": "2026-09-23", "sample_size": 1200, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/iowa", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites https://insideradvantage.com/ia-topline-tabs/; original not opened); matches RealClearPolling", "matchup_note": "Not in Wikipedia table", "pollster_key": "insideradvantage", "id": "ia-insideradvantage-2026-09-23" }, { "pollster": "Fox News / Beacon–Shaw", "sponsor": "Fox News", "field_start": "2026-09-24", "field_end": "2026-09-28", "published": "2026-10-01", "sample_size": 1008, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-turek-hinson-close-iowa-senate-race", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "Not in Wikipedia table. RV (1,204): Turek 50, Hinson 46", "pollster_key": "fox", "id": "ia-fox-2026-09-28" }, { "pollster": "Quantus Insights", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-28", "field_end": "2026-09-29", "published": "2026-09-29", "sample_size": 738, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/iowa", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites https://quantusinsights.org/f/quantus-insights-hinson-holds-narrow-edge-in-iowa-senate-race; original not opened); matches RealClearPolling", "matchup_note": "Not in Wikipedia table. Other versions listed: 47-49 and 49-51 (Turek-Hinson)", "pollster_key": "quantus", "id": "ia-quantus-2026-09-29" }, { "pollster": "Rasmussen Reports", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-28", "field_end": "2026-09-30", "published": "2026-09-30", "sample_size": 1048, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/iowa", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2026/election_2026_iowa_senate2; original not opened); matches RealClearPolling", "matchup_note": "Not in Wikipedia table", "pollster_key": "rasmussen", "id": "ia-rasmussen-2026-09-30" }, { "id": "ia-siena-oct01", "pollster": "New York Times / Siena", "pollster_key": "nyt-siena", "sponsor": "New York Times", "field_start": "2026-09-24", "field_end": "2026-10-01", "published": "2026-10-03", "sample_size": null, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 48, "source_url": "https://sri.siena.edu/2026/10/03/nytimes-siena-poll-of-likely-voters-senate-races/", "source_kind": "university poll release", "matchup_note": "Likely-voter result, sample size not confirmed from HTML release." }, { "pollster": "Suffolk University", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-01", "field_end": "2026-10-04", "published": "2026-10-04", "sample_size": 500, "population": "LV", "dem": 48.0, "rep": 43.6, "source_url": "https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/other-states/2026/10_7_2026_iowa_statewide_marginals.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Not in Wikipedia table. Other = Laehn (L) 2.2%; refused 0.6%", "pollster_key": "suffolk", "id": "ia-suffolk-2026-10-04" }, { "id": "ia-cnn-oct05", "pollster": "CNN / SSRS", "pollster_key": "cnn-ssrs", "sponsor": "CNN", "field_start": "2026-09-29", "field_end": "2026-10-05", "published": "2026-10-08", "sample_size": 801, "population": "LV", "dem": 43, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/cnc/date/2026-10-08/segment/01", "source_kind": "commissioning outlet broadcast transcript", "matchup_note": "CNN/SSRS likely-voter figures 43–45; reported sample size cross-checked against polling listings." }, { "id": "ia-emerson-oct06", "pollster": "Emerson College / Nexstar", "pollster_key": "emerson", "sponsor": "Nexstar Media", "field_start": "2026-10-05", "field_end": "2026-10-06", "published": "2026-10-09", "sample_size": 650, "population": "LV", "dem": 45, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://emersoncollegepolling.com/iowa-2026-poll-u-s-senate-race-tightens-sand-maintains-edge-for-governor/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "First-choice multi-candidate ballot; Libertarian Thomas Laehn 2%, undecided 7%." }, { "id": "ia-marist-oct11", "pollster": "Marist Poll", "pollster_key": "marist", "sponsor": "Marist University", "field_start": "2026-10-08", "field_end": "2026-10-11", "published": "2026-10-15", "sample_size": null, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/2026-midterm-elections-in-iowa-october-2026/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "LV topline; 1,100 is all-RV base, not assumed LV sample size." }, { "pollster": "YouGov", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-06", "field_end": "2026-10-12", "published": "2026-10-12", "sample_size": 2245, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/iowa", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_ia_20261006_lv.pdf; original not opened); matches RealClearPolling", "matchup_note": "Not in Wikipedia table", "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "ia-yougov-2026-10-12" }, { "pollster": "NPA Polling", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-08", "field_end": "2026-10-12", "published": "2026-10-12", "sample_size": 678, "population": "LV", "dem": 44, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://backend.natpublicaffairs.com/media/Iowa_General_Election_Memo_101526.3.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Not in Wikipedia table. Three-way ballot with Laehn (L) 4%; head-to-head: Turek 47, Hinson 48", "pollster_key": "npa-polling", "id": "ia-npa-polling-2026-10-12" }, { "pollster": "GS Strategy Group (R) / New River Strategies (D)", "sponsor": "Cook Political Report", "field_start": "2026-10-09", "field_end": "2026-10-13", "published": "2026-10-13", "sample_size": 602, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://www.cookpolitical.com/system/files/2026-10/1112%20CPR%20Senate%20Battleground%20Poll%20Topline.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Not in Wikipedia table. Includes leaners; other = Laehn (L) 8%", "pollster_key": "cook-gs", "id": "ia-cook-gs-2026-10-13" }, { "pollster": "The Trafalgar Group", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-13", "field_end": "2026-10-15", "published": "2026-10-15", "sample_size": 1094, "population": "LV", "dem": 44.2, "rep": 45.9, "source_url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/IA-Midterms-Report-1017.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Not in Wikipedia table. Other = Laehn 3.5%", "pollster_key": "trafalgar", "id": "ia-trafalgar-2026-10-15" }, { "pollster": "co/efficient", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-15", "field_end": "2026-10-19", "published": "2026-10-19", "sample_size": 863, "population": "LV", "dem": 45, "rep": 48, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/iowa", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/ia/; original not opened)", "matchup_note": "Not in Wikipedia table. Alternate version: Turek 46, Hinson 49 (used by RealClearPolling)", "pollster_key": "coefficient", "id": "ia-coefficient-2026-10-19" }, { "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-21", "field_end": "2026-10-22", "published": "2026-10-22", "sample_size": 1200, "population": "LV", "dem": 45, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-senate-surveys-mi-el-sayed-47-rogers-46-ia-hinson-47-turek-45-oh-brown-47-husted-44/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Not in Wikipedia table", "pollster_key": "insideradvantage", "id": "ia-insideradvantage-2026-10-22" }, { "pollster": "Echelon Insights", "sponsor": "NetChoice", "field_start": "2026-10-16", "field_end": "2026-10-23", "published": "2026-10-27", "sample_size": 403, "population": "LV", "dem": 45, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://netchoice.org/netchoice-echelon-insights-poll-voters-rank-ai-regulation-far-behind-cost-of-living-want-one-national-ai-standard/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "with Libertarian Laehn at 7%; not in Wikipedia table; sponsor is a tech-industry trade group", "pollster_key": "echelon", "id": "ia-echelon-2026-10-23" }, { "pollster": "co/efficient", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-28", "field_end": "2026-10-28", "published": "2026-10-28", "sample_size": 1020, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 48, "source_url": "https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/ia/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Not in Wikipedia table. Full ballot (Laehn L 1%); head-to-head: Turek 46, Hinson 48, undecided 6", "pollster_key": "coefficient", "id": "ia-coefficient-2026-10-28" } ] }, { "id": "nh-senate", "state": "New Hampshire", "code": "NH", "race_name": "New Hampshire U.S. Senate", "slug": "new-hampshire-2026", "candidates": { "dem": "Chris Pappas", "rep": "John E. Sununu" }, "polls": [ { "pollster": "University of New Hampshire Survey Center", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-01-15", "field_end": "2026-01-19", "published": "2026-01-21", "sample_size": 2053, "population": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://www.ellisinsight.com/2026/01/26/", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. Other/undecided per Wikipedia table", "pollster_key": "unh", "id": "nh-unh-2026-01-19" }, { "pollster": "yes. every kid.", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-01-28", "field_end": "2026-01-29", "published": "2026-01-29", "sample_size": 563, "population": "LV", "dem": 45, "rep": 41, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites yes. every kid. release)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. Sponsor is an education advocacy group (not a party/campaign); original release not located", "pollster_key": "yes-every-kid", "id": "nh-yes-every-kid-2026-01-29" }, { "pollster": "Saint Anselm College Survey Center", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-03-16", "field_end": "2026-03-18", "published": "2026-03-18", "sample_size": 1491, "population": "RV", "dem": 46, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Saint Anselm College)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. RV only", "pollster_key": "saint-anselm", "id": "nh-saint-anselm-2026-03-18" }, { "pollster": "Emerson College", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-03-21", "field_end": "2026-03-23", "published": "2026-03-26", "sample_size": 1000, "population": "LV", "dem": 45, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://emersoncollegepolling.com/new-hampshire-2026-sununu-leads-gop-nomination-ties-pappas-for-senate/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head.", "pollster_key": "emerson", "id": "nh-emerson-2026-03-23" }, { "pollster": "University of New Hampshire Survey Center", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-04-17", "field_end": "2026-04-21", "published": "2026-04-23", "sample_size": 1129, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 42, "source_url": "https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1943&context=survey_center_polls", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. 1,129 likely general-election voters of 1,295 total respondents", "pollster_key": "unh", "id": "nh-unh-2026-04-21" }, { "pollster": "University of New Hampshire Survey Center", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-06-18", "field_end": "2026-06-23", "published": "2026-06-30", "sample_size": 2232, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites UNH Survey Center; topline 47-44 confirmed by NHPR)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. 2,396 total respondents per NHPR; 2,232 LV per Wikipedia", "pollster_key": "unh", "id": "nh-unh-2026-06-23" }, { "pollster": "Saint Anselm College Survey Center", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-06-24", "field_end": "2026-06-25", "published": "2026-06-25", "sample_size": 1614, "population": "RV", "dem": 47, "rep": 41, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Saint Anselm College)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. RV only", "pollster_key": "saint-anselm", "id": "nh-saint-anselm-2026-06-25" }, { "pollster": "Peak Insights", "sponsor": "NRSC", "field_start": "2026-06-24", "field_end": "2026-06-27", "published": "2026-06-27", "sample_size": 500, "population": "LV", "dem": 43, "rep": 42, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Peak Insights)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head.", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (NRSC)", "pollster_key": "peak-insights", "id": "nh-peak-insights-2026-06-27" }, { "pollster": "Saint Anselm College Survey Center", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-08-17", "field_end": "2026-08-18", "published": "2026-08-20", "sample_size": 1411, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 41, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Saint Anselm College)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head.", "pollster_key": "saint-anselm", "id": "nh-saint-anselm-2026-08-18" }, { "pollster": "University of New Hampshire Survey Center", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-08-20", "field_end": "2026-08-24", "published": "2026-08-26", "sample_size": 1878, "population": "LV", "dem": 43, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://www.newsweek.com/chris-pappas-reverses-polling-trend-in-new-hampshire-senate-race-12485786", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head.", "pollster_key": "unh", "id": "nh-unh-2026-08-24" }, { "pollster": "Fabrizio, Lee & Associates", "sponsor": "NRSC", "field_start": "2026-08-27", "field_end": "2026-08-30", "published": "2026-08-30", "sample_size": 600, "population": "LV", "dem": 36, "rep": 37, "source_url": "https://www.newsweek.com/chris-pappas-reverses-polling-trend-in-new-hampshire-senate-race-12485786", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. Other reported as under 4%; Wikipedia lists 4", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (NRSC)", "pollster_key": "fabrizio", "id": "nh-fabrizio-2026-08-30" }, { "pollster": "Rasmussen Reports", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-08", "field_end": "2026-09-10", "published": "2026-09-10", "sample_size": 1000, "population": "LV", "dem": 45, "rep": 34, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Rasmussen Reports)", "matchup_note": "Fieldwork began on the Sept 8 primary day", "pollster_key": "rasmussen", "id": "nh-rasmussen-2026-09-10" }, { "pollster": "co/efficient", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-09", "field_end": "2026-09-11", "published": "2026-09-11", "sample_size": 958, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://www.newsweek.com/chris-pappas-reverses-polling-trend-in-new-hampshire-senate-race-12485786", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "coefficient", "id": "nh-coefficient-2026-09-11" }, { "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-16", "field_end": "2026-09-17", "published": "2026-09-18", "sample_size": 1200, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 40, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites InsiderAdvantage)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "insideradvantage", "id": "nh-insideradvantage-2026-09-17" }, { "id": "nh-unh-sep21", "pollster": "University of New Hampshire", "pollster_key": "unh", "sponsor": "UNH Survey Center", "field_start": "2026-09-15", "field_end": "2026-09-21", "published": "2026-09-24", "sample_size": 1418, "population": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 42, "source_url": "https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/1005/", "source_kind": "university original research listing / cross-checked toplines", "matchup_note": "UNH September Granite State Poll; original university listing and published table." }, { "pollster": "New York Times/Siena College", "sponsor": "The New York Times", "field_start": "2026-09-15", "field_end": "2026-09-22", "published": "2026-09-24", "sample_size": 613, "population": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites The New York Times)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "nyt-siena", "id": "nh-nyt-siena-2026-09-22" }, { "pollster": "Trafalgar Group", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-26", "field_end": "2026-09-27", "published": "2026-09-27", "sample_size": 1082, "population": "LV", "dem": 47.4, "rep": 40.5, "source_url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/NH-Midterms-Survey-Report-0927.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Other = Laplante 1.1%. Wikipedia lists Sept 23-25, n=1,090, 46-42; original report shows Sept 26-27, n=1,082", "pollster_key": "trafalgar", "id": "nh-trafalgar-2026-09-27" }, { "pollster": "Saint Anselm College (NH Institute of Politics)", "sponsor": "AARP", "field_start": "2026-09-28", "field_end": "2026-09-29", "published": "2026-10-06", "sample_size": 1042, "population": "LV", "dem": 51, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://www.aarp.org/pri/topics/voter-research/politics/2026-midterm-election-poll-new-hampshire/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Includes oversample of voters 50+", "pollster_key": "saint-anselm", "id": "nh-saint-anselm-2026-09-29" }, { "pollster": "Rasmussen Reports", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-02", "field_end": "2026-10-04", "published": "2026-10-04", "sample_size": 979, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://www.newsweek.com/gops-sununu-surges-in-bid-to-flip-democrats-new-hampshire-senate-seat-12526638", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "Other = Laplante (Constitution) 3%", "pollster_key": "rasmussen", "id": "nh-rasmussen-2026-10-04" }, { "id": "nh-yougov-oct05", "pollster": "YouGov", "pollster_key": "yougov", "sponsor": "YouGov", "field_start": "2026-09-28", "field_end": "2026-10-05", "published": "2026-10-07", "sample_size": 1520, "population": "LV", "dem": 51, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://yougov.com/en-us/articles/55703-new-polls-in-seven-states-show-tight-races-for-senate-and-governor-in-each-including-leads-for-talarico-brown-and-acton", "source_kind": "pollster research release and survey links; topline cross-checked with public polls", "matchup_note": "Direct archive lists October 2026 New Hampshire General Election; figures cross-checked to published poll listings." }, { "pollster": "NPA Polling (National Public Affairs)", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-08", "field_end": "2026-10-12", "published": "2026-10-16", "sample_size": 600, "population": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://backend.natpublicaffairs.com/media/NH_General_Election_Memo_101526.2.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Three-way ballot with Laplante 4% (incl. leaners); head-to-head version 50-45", "pollster_key": "npa-polling", "id": "nh-npa-polling-2026-10-12" }, { "pollster": "UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion / YouGov", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-02", "field_end": "2026-10-19", "published": "2026-10-19", "sample_size": 600, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 41, "source_url": "https://www.uml.edu/research/public-opinion/polls/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "nh-yougov-2026-10-19" }, { "id": "nh-anselm-oct20", "pollster": "Saint Anselm College", "pollster_key": "saint-anselm", "sponsor": "Saint Anselm College", "field_start": "2026-10-19", "field_end": "2026-10-20", "published": "2026-10-22", "sample_size": 1672, "population": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://www.anselm.edu/about/anselmian-hub/news/new-saint-anselm-college-poll-finds-democrats-leading-congressional-races-affordability-concerns-shape-election-landscape", "source_kind": "university original release", "matchup_note": "Online survey drawn from registered-voter sample; likely-voter measure." }, { "pollster": "Rasmussen Reports", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-20", "field_end": "2026-10-23", "published": "2026-10-26", "sample_size": 970, "population": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2026/election_2026_new_hampshire_senate", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Other = Laplante (Constitution) 4%, Tim Harris (I) 1%", "pollster_key": "rasmussen", "id": "nh-rasmussen-2026-10-23" } ] }, { "id": "ga-senate", "state": "Georgia", "code": "GA", "race_name": "Georgia U.S. Senate", "slug": "georgia-2026", "candidates": { "dem": "Jon Ossoff", "rep": "Mike Collins" }, "polls": [ { "pollster": "Emerson College", "sponsor": "Nexstar Media", "field_start": "2026-02-28", "field_end": "2026-03-02", "published": "2026-03-05", "sample_size": 1000, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://emersoncollegepolling.com/georgia-2026-poll-senator-ossoff-starts-re-election-near-50-and-outpaces-gop-field/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. Pre-primary hypothetical", "pollster_key": "emerson", "id": "ga-emerson-2026-03-02" }, { "pollster": "Echelon Insights", "sponsor": "NetChoice", "field_start": "2026-04-03", "field_end": "2026-04-09", "published": "2026-04-09", "sample_size": 407, "population": "LV", "dem": 51, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://netchoice.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/NetChoice-Apr-2026-National-Antitrust-Survey-Topline.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. Georgia sample within NetChoice multi-state survey", "pollster_key": "echelon", "id": "ga-echelon-2026-04-09" }, { "pollster": "Fox News / Beacon–Shaw", "sponsor": "Fox News", "field_start": "2026-06-23", "field_end": "2026-06-27", "published": "2026-07-01", "sample_size": 1002, "population": "RV", "dem": 56, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2026/07/fox_june-23-27-2026_complete_georgia_topline_july-1-release.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "RV only; no LV figure published", "pollster_key": "fox", "id": "ga-fox-2026-06-27" }, { "pollster": "Wick", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-06-27", "field_end": "2026-06-30", "published": "2026-06-30", "sample_size": 1175, "population": "LV", "dem": 46.7, "rep": 42.9, "source_url": "https://wick.io/research-georgia-election-survey-june-2026", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "wick", "id": "ga-wick-2026-06-30" }, { "pollster": "Fabrizio Ward (R) / Impact Research (D)", "sponsor": "AARP", "field_start": "2026-07-13", "field_end": "2026-07-16", "published": "2026-07-16", "sample_size": 1060, "population": "LV", "dem": 52, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://www.newsweek.com/jon-ossoff-vs-mike-collins-new-gop-poll-gives-race-update-50-days-out-12441633", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "Undecided 5 per Wikipedia table", "pollster_key": "fabrizio-ward", "id": "ga-fabrizio-ward-2026-07-16" }, { "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-08-16", "field_end": "2026-08-17", "published": "2026-08-18", "sample_size": 800, "population": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://www.newsweek.com/jon-ossoff-vs-mike-collins-new-gop-poll-gives-race-update-50-days-out-12441633", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "insideradvantage", "id": "ga-insideradvantage-2026-08-17" }, { "pollster": "Trafalgar Group", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-10", "field_end": "2026-09-12", "published": "2026-09-12", "sample_size": 1091, "population": "LV", "dem": 49.4, "rep": 42.8, "source_url": "https://www.newsweek.com/jon-ossoff-vs-mike-collins-new-gop-poll-gives-race-update-50-days-out-12441633", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "Other = Libertarian Allen Buckley 1.3%", "pollster_key": "trafalgar", "id": "ga-trafalgar-2026-09-12" }, { "pollster": "Rasmussen Reports", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-14", "field_end": "2026-09-14", "published": "2026-09-15", "sample_size": 1019, "population": "LV", "dem": 51, "rep": 42, "source_url": "https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2026/election_2026_georgia_senate", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "rasmussen", "id": "ga-rasmussen-2026-09-14" }, { "pollster": "Quantus Insights", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-14", "field_end": "2026-09-16", "published": "2026-09-16", "sample_size": 645, "population": "LV", "dem": 48.2, "rep": 44.4, "source_url": "https://www.newsweek.com/jon-ossoff-extends-lead-over-mike-collins-in-georgia-senate-race-poll-12552612", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "Wikipedia also lists a second version 49-45", "pollster_key": "quantus", "id": "ga-quantus-2026-09-16" }, { "id": "ga-yougov-sep18", "pollster": "YouGov", "pollster_key": "yougov", "sponsor": "YouGov", "field_start": "2026-09-15", "field_end": "2026-09-18", "published": "2026-09-23", "sample_size": 3303, "population": "LV", "dem": 52, "rep": 42, "source_url": "https://yougov.com/en-us/survey-results", "source_kind": "pollster archive; polling topline cross-checked", "matchup_note": "Pollster primary archive links September 2026 Georgia General Election results." }, { "id": "ga-bigdata-sep23", "pollster": "BIG DATA POLL / Public Polling Project", "pollster_key": "big-data", "sponsor": "Public Polling Project", "field_start": "2026-09-21", "field_end": "2026-09-23", "published": "2026-09-24", "sample_size": 678, "population": "LV", "dem": 52.2, "rep": 41.0, "source_url": "https://www.bigdatapoll.com/blog/peach-state-poll-jon-ossoff-opens-up-lead-over-mike-collins-in-georgia/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Initial first-choice likely-voter ballot, NOT undecided-leaned 55.4–44.6; crowdfunded Public Polling Project." }, { "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-22", "field_end": "2026-09-23", "published": "2026-09-25", "sample_size": 1200, "population": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 42, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites InsiderAdvantage)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "insideradvantage", "id": "ga-insideradvantage-2026-09-23" }, { "id": "ga-trafalgar-oct09", "pollster": "Trafalgar Group", "pollster_key": "trafalgar", "sponsor": "Unconfirmed", "field_start": "2026-10-07", "field_end": "2026-10-09", "published": "2026-10-10", "sample_size": 1101, "population": "LV", "dem": 51, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/senate/2026/georgia", "source_kind": "secondary poll listing", "matchup_note": "51–43 in public archives; excluded until original report reviewed.", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Original pollster release not independently reviewed" }, { "id": "ga-ajc-uga-oct15", "pollster": "University of Georgia / AJC", "pollster_key": "ajc-uga", "sponsor": "Atlanta Journal-Constitution", "field_start": "2026-10-07", "field_end": "2026-10-15", "published": "2026-10-22", "sample_size": 1000, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 40, "source_url": "https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/10/ajc-poll-ossoff-leads-collins-in-georgias-us-senate-race/", "source_kind": "commissioning outlet original poll report", "matchup_note": "12% undecided; AJC-commissioned University of Georgia survey." }, { "id": "ga-quantus-oct17", "pollster": "Quantus Insights", "pollster_key": "quantus", "sponsor": "Quantus Insights", "field_start": "2026-10-15", "field_end": "2026-10-17", "published": "2026-10-19", "sample_size": 755, "population": "LV", "dem": 52, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/senate/2026/georgia", "source_kind": "secondary poll listing; primary topline unverified", "matchup_note": "52–45 reported in RCP and DDHQ public records; not counted until original memo verified.", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Original pollster topline not independently reviewed" }, { "id": "ga-activote-oct20", "pollster": "ActiVote", "pollster_key": "activote", "sponsor": "ActiVote", "field_start": "2026-10-06", "field_end": "2026-10-20", "published": "2026-10-20", "sample_size": 400, "population": "LV", "dem": 54, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://www.activote.net/polls/2026/ga-u-s-senate/", "source_kind": "pollster release", "matchup_note": "Forced two-candidate 100% response; withheld from first-choice aggregation.", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Different response format: forced two-candidate split without undecideds" } ] }, { "id": "ak-senate", "state": "Alaska", "code": "AK", "race_name": "Alaska U.S. Senate", "slug": "alaska-2026", "candidates": { "dem": "Mary Peltola", "rep": "Dan Sullivan" }, "polls": [ { "pollster": "Alaska Survey Research", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-01-08", "field_end": "2026-01-11", "published": "2026-01-11", "sample_size": null, "population": "LV", "dem": 48.0, "rep": 46.4, "source_url": "https://alaskasurveyresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/202526-Winter-Alaska-Survey-Report.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. Two-way head-to-head (pre-candidacy); Dan J. Sullivan not in question. Report sample 1,988 RV; Senate question asked of a likely-voter subset whose size isn't stated", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Two-way or simulated final-round result, not first-choice support", "pollster_key": "asr", "id": "ak-asr-2026-01-11" }, { "pollster": "Public Policy Polling", "sponsor": "DSCC", "field_start": "2026-01-16", "field_end": "2026-01-17", "published": "2026-01-17", "sample_size": 611, "population": null, "dem": 49, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Politico/Newsweek)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. Two-way head-to-head; commissioned by the DSCC (partisan); sample described as 'voters'; Dan J. Sullivan not in question", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Two-way or simulated final-round result, not first-choice support", "pollster_key": "ppp", "id": "ak-ppp-2026-01-17" }, { "pollster": "Alaska Survey Research", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-03-19", "field_end": "2026-03-22", "published": "2026-03-22", "sample_size": 1340, "population": "LV", "dem": 48.8, "rep": 43.5, "source_url": "https://alaskasurveyresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/Memo-Senate-March.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. RCV first choice with Miklos 5.2%, Diener 2.4% (n = general-election voters); Dan J. Sullivan not in question", "pollster_key": "asr", "id": "ak-asr-2026-03-22" }, { "pollster": "Alaska Survey Research", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-04-16", "field_end": "2026-04-19", "published": "2026-04-23", "sample_size": 1946, "population": "LV", "dem": 49.1, "rep": 42.5, "source_url": "https://alaskasurveyresearch.com/peltola-vs-sullivan-april-2026/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. RCV first choice with Ryan 5.2%, Hill 3.2%; Dan J. Sullivan not in question", "pollster_key": "asr", "id": "ak-asr-2026-04-19" }, { "pollster": "Alaska Survey Research", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-05-14", "field_end": "2026-05-17", "published": "2026-05-17", "sample_size": 1401, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Alaska Survey Research)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. First choice; Heikes 3%, other 5%; Dan J. Sullivan not listed", "pollster_key": "asr", "id": "ak-asr-2026-05-17" }, { "pollster": "Alaska Survey Research", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-06-04", "field_end": "2026-06-07", "published": "2026-06-07", "sample_size": 1393, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Alaska Survey Research)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. First choice; Heikes 4%, other 3%; Dan J. Sullivan not listed", "pollster_key": "asr", "id": "ak-asr-2026-06-07" }, { "pollster": "New York Times/Siena College", "sponsor": "The New York Times", "field_start": "2026-06-15", "field_end": "2026-06-29", "published": "2026-06-29", "sample_size": 593, "population": "LV", "dem": 45, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://www.newsweek.com/dan-sullivan-within-striking-distance-of-mary-peltola-in-alaska-senate-race-12311449", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. First round only; no Dan J. Sullivan figure reported", "pollster_key": "nyt-siena", "id": "ak-nyt-siena-2026-06-29" }, { "pollster": "Data for Progress", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-07-28", "field_end": "2026-08-04", "published": "2026-08-04", "sample_size": 605, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 41, "source_url": "https://www.filesforprogress.org/datasets/2026/8/dfp_alaska_aug_2026.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. First choice incl. Dan J. Sullivan Jr. 4%, Heikes 3%; final RCV round 53-47. Wikipedia lists Peltola at 45%, original toplines show 47%", "pollster_key": "dfp", "id": "ak-dfp-2026-08-04" }, { "pollster": "Alaska Survey Research", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-08-02", "field_end": "2026-08-05", "published": "2026-08-05", "sample_size": 1371, "population": "LV", "dem": 50.8, "rep": 49.2, "source_url": "https://newsweek.com/mary-peltola-chances-beating-dan-sullivans-alaska-12369384", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. Final RCV round only; first-choice figures not published", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Two-way or simulated final-round result, not first-choice support", "pollster_key": "asr", "id": "ak-asr-2026-08-05" }, { "pollster": "Alaska Survey Research", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-08-20", "field_end": "2026-08-23", "published": "2026-08-23", "sample_size": 1495, "population": "LV", "dem": 50.6, "rep": 49.4, "source_url": "https://www.juneauindependent.com/post/peltola-won-primary-by-8-but-new-poll-shows-general-election-race-tied-with-sen-sullivan", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "Final RCV round only", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Two-way or simulated final-round result, not first-choice support", "pollster_key": "asr", "id": "ak-asr-2026-08-23" }, { "id": "ak-aarp-sep11", "pollster": "Fabrizio Ward / Impact Research", "pollster_key": "fabrizio-ward", "sponsor": "AARP", "field_start": "2026-09-08", "field_end": "2026-09-11", "published": "2026-09-17", "sample_size": 800, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 41, "source_url": "https://www.aarp.org/pri/topics/voter-research/politics/2026-midterm-election-poll-alaska/", "source_kind": "commissioning organization original report", "matchup_note": "Initial first-choice ballot support (46–41); simulated final round 53–47 is intentionally not used." }, { "pollster": "Alaska Survey Research", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-10", "field_end": "2026-09-12", "published": "2026-09-22", "sample_size": 1352, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://political.org/2026-senate-elections/", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "First choice incl. Dan J. Sullivan Jr. 4%, Heikes 4%; final RCV 52-48", "pollster_key": "asr", "id": "ak-asr-2026-09-12" }, { "pollster": "Rasmussen Reports", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-13", "field_end": "2026-09-14", "published": "2026-09-15", "sample_size": 1188, "population": "LV", "dem": 39, "rep": 39, "source_url": "https://political.org/2026-senate-elections/", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "Incl. Dan J. Sullivan Jr. 7%, Heikes 6%", "pollster_key": "rasmussen", "id": "ak-rasmussen-2026-09-14" }, { "pollster": "co/efficient", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-14", "field_end": "2026-09-17", "published": "2026-09-17", "sample_size": 799, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 48, "source_url": "https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/ak/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "First-choice ballot incl. Dan J. Sullivan Jr. 1%, Heikes 1%; head-to-head version Sullivan 49-46", "pollster_key": "coefficient", "id": "ak-coefficient-2026-09-17" }, { "pollster": "Trafalgar Group", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-22", "field_end": "2026-09-24", "published": "2026-09-26", "sample_size": 1079, "population": "LV", "dem": 45.5, "rep": 46.8, "source_url": "https://political.org/2026-senate-elections/", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "Incl. Dan J. Sullivan Jr. 2.8%, Heikes 0.7%", "pollster_key": "trafalgar", "id": "ak-trafalgar-2026-09-24" }, { "pollster": "Quantus Insights", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-28", "field_end": "2026-09-30", "published": "2026-10-02", "sample_size": 758, "population": "LV", "dem": 45.5, "rep": 46.1, "source_url": "https://www.newsweek.com/alaska-polls-democrats-senate-dan-sullivan-mary-peltola-12529985", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "Not confirmed whether Dan J. Sullivan/Heikes were offered; ~8% undecided or other", "pollster_key": "quantus", "id": "ak-quantus-2026-09-30" }, { "id": "ak-siena-oct01", "pollster": "New York Times / Siena", "pollster_key": "nyt-siena", "sponsor": "New York Times", "field_start": "2026-09-24", "field_end": "2026-10-01", "published": "2026-10-03", "sample_size": null, "population": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://sri.siena.edu/2026/10/03/nytimes-siena-poll-of-likely-voters-senate-races/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Two-candidate topline not confirmed as the same 4-candidate first-choice question; exclude.", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Survey ballot format not verified as comparable to four-candidate initial choices" }, { "pollster": "Alaska Survey Research", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-01", "field_end": "2026-10-03", "published": "2026-10-07", "sample_size": 1512, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://www.newsweek.com/dan-sullivan-mary-peltola-alaska-pols-debate-12574508", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "Four-way first choice incl. Dan J. Sullivan Jr. 5%, Heikes 3%; final RCV 51-49", "pollster_key": "asr", "id": "ak-asr-2026-10-03" }, { "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-09", "field_end": "2026-10-10", "published": "2026-10-11", "sample_size": 1200, "population": "LV", "dem": 48.2, "rep": 42.6, "source_url": "https://www.newsweek.com/mary-peltola-is-pulling-ahead-in-the-final-stretch-against-dan-sullivan-12592675", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "Four-way first choice incl. Dan J. Sullivan 1.7%, Heikes 2.2%; final RCV 50.1-48.0", "pollster_key": "insideradvantage", "id": "ak-insideradvantage-2026-10-10" }, { "pollster": "Public Policy Polling", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-14", "field_end": "2026-10-15", "published": "2026-10-15", "sample_size": 578, "population": "RV", "dem": 48, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://political.org/2026-senate-elections/", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "Two-way head-to-head; Dan J. Sullivan not in question; sponsor not reported", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Two-way or simulated final-round result, not first-choice support", "pollster_key": "ppp", "id": "ak-ppp-2026-10-15" }, { "pollster": "Rasmussen Reports", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-12", "field_end": "2026-10-15", "published": "2026-10-19", "sample_size": 775, "population": "LV", "dem": 44, "rep": 42, "source_url": "https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2026/election_2026_alaska_senate", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Incl. Dan J. Sullivan 3%, Heikes 4%", "pollster_key": "rasmussen", "id": "ak-rasmussen-2026-10-15" }, { "id": "ak-dfp-oct16", "pollster": "Data for Progress", "pollster_key": "dfp", "sponsor": "Data for Progress", "field_start": "2026-10-08", "field_end": "2026-10-16", "published": "2026-10-20", "sample_size": 694, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/10/20/every-statewide-race-in-alaska-is-close-as-7-in-10-voters-worry-about-affording-gas-and-food", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Initial first-choice support on a 4-candidate ranked-choice ballot; NOT the simulated final round (51–49)." }, { "pollster": "Alaska Survey Research", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-26", "field_end": "2026-10-29", "published": "2026-10-30", "sample_size": 1326, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://political.org/2026-senate-elections/", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "First choice incl. Dan J. Sullivan Jr. 3%, Heikes 3%; final RCV 51-49", "pollster_key": "asr", "id": "ak-asr-2026-10-29" } ], "editorial_note": "Alaska uses ranked-choice voting. Included surveys represent initial first-choice support only, not a simulated final round. The two-way Siena release is visible for context but excluded from the first-choice average." }, { "id": "ks-senate", "state": "Kansas", "code": "KS", "race_name": "Kansas U.S. Senate", "slug": "kansas-2026", "candidates": { "dem": "Adam Hamilton", "rep": "Roger Marshall" }, "polls": [ { "pollster": "Tavern Research", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-01-26", "field_end": "2026-01-28", "published": "2026-04-17", "sample_size": 1013, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 54, "source_url": "https://sunflowerstatejournal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Toplines-KS-surv-20260125_195205.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. Online panel, MoE 4.0%; no undecided option. Same survey tested Hamilton as an independent: Hamilton 51, Marshall 49.", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Tavern Research, Democratic-aligned firm; sponsor not disclosed)", "pollster_key": "tavern-research", "id": "ks-tavern-research-2026-01-28" }, { "pollster": "GBAO", "sponsor": "Adam Hamilton campaign", "field_start": "2026-07-08", "field_end": "2026-07-13", "published": "2026-07-13", "sample_size": 600, "population": "LV", "dem": 43, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Kansas#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Politico); read via pollcheck.co.uk mirror of that table", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. Taken before the Aug 4 Democratic primary.", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Hamilton campaign internal)", "pollster_key": "gbao", "id": "ks-gbao-2026-07-13" }, { "pollster": "Public Policy Polling", "sponsor": "Senate Majority PAC", "field_start": "2026-08-07", "field_end": "2026-08-08", "published": "2026-08-12", "sample_size": 569, "population": "LV", "dem": 45, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://sunflowerstatejournal.com/democratic-poll-shows-u-s-senate-race-tight/", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "Sunflower State Journal describes the sponsor only as a Democratic super PAC; sponsor name and LV population per Wikipedia table.", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Senate Majority PAC, Democratic super PAC)", "pollster_key": "ppp", "id": "ks-ppp-2026-08-08" }, { "pollster": "Global Strategy Group", "sponsor": "People over Politics Action", "field_start": "2026-08-12", "field_end": "2026-08-16", "published": "2026-08-16", "sample_size": 800, "population": "LV", "dem": 44, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://www.thedailybeast.com/loyal-republican-abandons-donald-trump-to-back-dem-in-ruby-red-state/", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "Other = Libertarian David Graham. Dates, sample and sponsor name per Wikipedia table; Daily Beast confirms 44-43 from a Democratic sponsor.", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (People over Politics Action, Democratic-aligned)", "pollster_key": "global-strategy-group", "id": "ks-global-strategy-group-2026-08-16" }, { "pollster": "co/efficient", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-08", "field_end": "2026-09-10", "published": "2026-09-10", "sample_size": 915, "population": "LV", "dem": 44, "rep": 49, "source_url": "https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/ks/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Other = Libertarian David Graham 2%. Republican-aligned firm, self-released; states it is not sponsored by any candidate, party or IE group. MoE 3.22%.", "pollster_key": "coefficient", "id": "ks-coefficient-2026-09-10" }, { "pollster": "Global Strategy Group", "sponsor": "Democratic Attorneys General Association", "field_start": "2026-09-13", "field_end": "2026-09-16", "published": "2026-09-16", "sample_size": 800, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://politicalwire.com/2026/10/02/adam-hamilton-leads-in-kansas-senate-race/", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "Full ballot with Libertarian Graham 5%; head-to-head version Hamilton 49, Marshall 47. Memo dated Oct 1 per its filename; dates and sample per Wikipedia table.", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Democratic Attorneys General Association)", "pollster_key": "global-strategy-group", "id": "ks-global-strategy-group-2026-09-16" }, { "pollster": "Emerson College", "sponsor": "Nexstar Media", "field_start": "2026-09-15", "field_end": "2026-09-16", "published": "2026-09-18", "sample_size": 750, "population": "LV", "dem": 45, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://emersoncollegepolling.com/kansas-2026/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Other = Libertarian David Graham 4%. MoE 3.6%.", "pollster_key": "emerson", "id": "ks-emerson-2026-09-16" }, { "pollster": "New York Times / Siena", "sponsor": "The New York Times", "field_start": "2026-09-22", "field_end": "2026-09-30", "published": "2026-10-03", "sample_size": 605, "population": "LV", "dem": 45, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://sri.siena.edu/2026/10/03/nytimes-siena-poll-of-likely-voters-senate-races/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Full ballot with Libertarian David Graham at 3%. Head-to-head version: Marshall 47, Hamilton 46.", "pollster_key": "nyt-siena", "id": "ks-nyt-siena-2026-09-30" }, { "pollster": "Trafalgar Group", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-29", "field_end": "2026-10-01", "published": "2026-10-01", "sample_size": 1095, "population": "LV", "dem": 44.4, "rep": 43.5, "source_url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/KS-Midterms-Report-1001.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Other = Libertarian David C. Graham 2.0%. MoE 2.9%.", "pollster_key": "trafalgar", "id": "ks-trafalgar-2026-10-01" }, { "pollster": "GBAO", "sponsor": "Adam Hamilton campaign", "field_start": "2026-09-30", "field_end": "2026-10-04", "published": "2026-10-04", "sample_size": 600, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 41, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Kansas#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Politico); read via pollcheck.co.uk mirror of that table", "matchup_note": "Full ballot with Libertarian Graham 7%; head-to-head version Hamilton 49, Marshall 44.", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Hamilton campaign internal)", "pollster_key": "gbao", "id": "ks-gbao-2026-10-04" }, { "pollster": "YouGov", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-24", "field_end": "2026-10-04", "published": "2026-10-06", "sample_size": 2255, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_ks_20260921_lv.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "'Someone else' 1%, 'will not vote in this race' 1%. Sponsor not named in release. MoE 3.2%.", "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "ks-yougov-2026-10-04" }, { "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-09", "field_end": "2026-10-10", "published": "2026-10-10", "sample_size": 1200, "population": "LV", "dem": 47.5, "rep": 46.7, "source_url": "https://www.newsweek.com/republicans-get-new-midterm-warning-sign-as-kansas-senate-race-shifts-12569771", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "Other = Libertarian David C. Graham 3.4%. Pollster headline rounds to Hamilton 48, Marshall 47. MoE 2.83%.", "pollster_key": "insideradvantage", "id": "ks-insideradvantage-2026-10-10" }, { "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-13", "field_end": "2026-10-14", "published": "2026-10-15", "sample_size": 1200, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 48, "source_url": "https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-senate-surveys-texas-paxton-49-talarico-48-kansas-marshall-48-hamilton-47-maine-jackson-49-collins-47/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "MoE 2.83%. Graham/undecided not reported on the release page.", "pollster_key": "insideradvantage", "id": "ks-insideradvantage-2026-10-14" }, { "pollster": "RedBox Research", "sponsor": "A Fight Worth Having (super PAC)", "field_start": "2026-10-20", "field_end": "2026-10-23", "published": "2026-10-25", "sample_size": 1301, "population": "LV", "dem": 45.0, "rep": 45.7, "source_url": "https://afightworthhaving.com/polling/2026/kansas", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Other = Libertarian Graham 3.0%. MoE 3.2.", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (A Fight Worth Having super PAC; RedBox is its in-house polling unit)", "pollster_key": "redbox-research", "id": "ks-redbox-research-2026-10-23" }, { "pollster": "Washington Post / George Mason", "sponsor": "The Washington Post", "field_start": "2026-10-22", "field_end": "2026-10-26", "published": "2026-10-30", "sample_size": 801, "population": "LV", "dem": 52, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://mishtalk.com/economics/two-new-kansas-senate-polls-and-the-betting-markets-reaction/", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "With Libertarian David Graham at 4%. The Post cautioned that cooperation was much higher among registered Democrats than Republicans (32% vs 12% completed after an interviewer's call) and said there is good reason to suspect the poll overestimates Democratic support. MoE 3.9.", "pollster_key": "wapo-gmu", "id": "ks-wapo-gmu-2026-10-26" }, { "pollster": "CNN / SSRS", "sponsor": "CNN", "field_start": "2026-10-20", "field_end": "2026-10-27", "published": "2026-10-29", "sample_size": 838, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/maine-kansas-senate-races-neck-and-neck-democrats-lead-texas-michigan-poll-shows", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "Telephone; likely voters drawn from a random registered-voter sample. MoE 4.5.", "pollster_key": "cnn-ssrs", "id": "ks-cnn-ssrs-2026-10-27" }, { "pollster": "Emerson College", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-26", "field_end": "2026-10-28", "published": "2026-10-30", "sample_size": 800, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://emersoncollegepolling.com/october-2026-kansas-poll-hamilton-maintains-edge-over-marshall/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Other = Libertarian David Graham 3%. With leaners: Hamilton 50, Marshall 47. Voters who already voted: Hamilton 66-32; yet to vote: Marshall 48-45. MoE 3.5.", "pollster_key": "emerson", "id": "ks-emerson-2026-10-28" } ] }, { "id": "sc-senate", "state": "South Carolina", "code": "SC", "race_name": "South Carolina U.S. Senate", "slug": "south-carolina-2026", "candidates": { "dem": "Annie Andrews", "rep": "Darline Graham" }, "polls": [ { "pollster": "Impact Research", "sponsor": "Annie Andrews campaign", "field_start": "2026-08-14", "field_end": "2026-08-22", "published": "2026-08-22", "sample_size": 900, "population": "LV", "dem": 42, "rep": 39, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Impact Research memo via Max Cohen on X; sponsor per pollcheck.co.uk)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. Taken before the Aug 25 GOP runoff (Darline Graham vs Ralph Norman)", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Annie Andrews campaign internal)", "pollster_key": "impact-research", "id": "sc-impact-research-2026-08-22" }, { "pollster": "Impact Research", "sponsor": "Annie Andrews campaign", "field_start": "2026-08-18", "field_end": "2026-08-24", "published": "2026-08-24", "sample_size": 700, "population": "LV", "dem": 41, "rep": 41, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Impact Research memo on drannieandrews.com)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. Taken before the Aug 25 GOP runoff", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Annie Andrews campaign internal)", "pollster_key": "impact-research", "id": "sc-impact-research-2026-08-24" }, { "pollster": "Abacus Data", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-08-26", "field_end": "2026-08-28", "published": "2026-09-02", "sample_size": 306, "population": "LV", "dem": 42, "rep": 55, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Abacus Data)", "matchup_note": "Five-state Abacus survey paid for by Abacus Data; SC likely-voter subsample. RV version (500 RV): Andrews 48, Graham 47 (not recorded). Abacus article text does not print the SC head-to-head; numbers per Wikipedia and pollcheck.co.uk", "pollster_key": "abacus-data", "id": "sc-abacus-data-2026-08-28" }, { "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-08", "field_end": "2026-09-09", "published": "2026-09-09", "sample_size": 1200, "population": "LV", "dem": 43, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://www.newsweek.com/lindsey-grahams-longtime-republican-held-senate-seat-at-risk-12537546", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "Wikipedia labels this row (R); kept as an independent commercial pollster, consistent with other races", "pollster_key": "insideradvantage", "id": "sc-insideradvantage-2026-09-09" }, { "pollster": "Rasmussen Reports", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-14", "field_end": "2026-09-14", "published": "2026-09-14", "sample_size": 1006, "population": "LV", "dem": 43, "rep": 48, "source_url": "https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/election_2026/south_carolina_senate_graham_leads_by_5_points", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites Rasmussen Reports release)", "matchup_note": "Single-source; original release not opened", "pollster_key": "rasmussen", "id": "sc-rasmussen-2026-09-14" }, { "pollster": "Trafalgar Group", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-23", "field_end": "2026-09-25", "published": "2026-09-25", "sample_size": 1087, "population": "LV", "dem": 42.3, "rep": 43.4, "source_url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/SC-Midterms-Survey-Report-0926.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "270toWin lists the sample as 1,089; release says 1,087", "pollster_key": "trafalgar", "id": "sc-trafalgar-2026-09-25" }, { "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-28", "field_end": "2026-09-29", "published": "2026-09-29", "sample_size": 1200, "population": "LV", "dem": 45, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://www.newsweek.com/lindsey-grahams-longtime-republican-held-senate-seat-at-risk-12537546", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "Other + undecided = 9% combined (270toWin)", "pollster_key": "insideradvantage", "id": "sc-insideradvantage-2026-09-29" }, { "pollster": "Rasmussen Reports", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-05", "field_end": "2026-10-08", "published": "2026-10-09", "sample_size": 837, "population": "LV", "dem": 45, "rep": 49, "source_url": "https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2026/election_2026_south_carolina_senate", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "rasmussen", "id": "sc-rasmussen-2026-10-08" }, { "pollster": "Trafalgar Group", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-16", "field_end": "2026-10-18", "published": "2026-10-18", "sample_size": 1095, "population": "LV", "dem": 45.6, "rep": 48.6, "source_url": "https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/SC-Midterms-Survey-Report-1019.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Whitener (L) 3.9%, Hackett (C) 0.8%", "pollster_key": "trafalgar", "id": "sc-trafalgar-2026-10-18" }, { "pollster": "Impact Research", "sponsor": "Fresh Start SC (pro-Andrews super PAC)", "field_start": "2026-10-15", "field_end": "2026-10-21", "published": "2026-10-22", "sample_size": 800, "population": "LV", "dem": 45, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://freshstartpac.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/SC-Senate-Track-Public-Memo.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Whitener 3%, Hackett 2%", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Fresh Start SC, super PAC supporting Annie Andrews)", "pollster_key": "impact-research", "id": "sc-impact-research-2026-10-21" }, { "pollster": "East Carolina University", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-19", "field_end": "2026-10-24", "published": "2026-10-29", "sample_size": 955, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 51, "source_url": "https://surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenews.com/pr/ecu-poll-finds-graham-leading-andrews-by-four-points", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "ecu", "id": "sc-ecu-2026-10-24" }, { "pollster": "The Citadel", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-14", "field_end": "2026-10-25", "published": "2026-10-25", "sample_size": 890, "population": "LV", "dem": 39, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://poll.citadel.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/The-Citadel-Poll-Oct2026.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Standard ballot (Q12). Version offering a Ralph Norman write-in (Q16): Graham 42, Andrews 39, Norman 2, undecided 14. RV (1,009): Graham 35, Andrews 40 (not recorded)", "pollster_key": "citadel", "id": "sc-citadel-2026-10-25" }, { "pollster": "Targoz Market Research", "sponsor": "South Carolina Policy Council", "field_start": "2026-10-16", "field_end": "2026-10-25", "published": "2026-10-25", "sample_size": 895, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://www.foxcarolina.com/2026/10/26/new-poll-shows-neck-and-neck-senate-race-double-digit-lead-governor-sc-midterms/", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "895 likely or already-voted voters out of 1,200 RV; Whitener 2%, Hackett 1%", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (South Carolina Policy Council, free-market policy group)", "pollster_key": "targoz-market-research", "id": "sc-targoz-market-research-2026-10-25" }, { "pollster": "New York Times / Siena", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-19", "field_end": "2026-10-26", "published": "2026-10-28", "sample_size": 707, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 48, "source_url": "https://abcnews4.com/news/local/new-nytsiena-poll-shows-sc-senate-race-tied-as-andrews-graham-deadlocked-at-48", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "Field dates and sample per pollcheck.co.uk/270toWin (NYT toplines not openable); other+undecided 4% combined", "pollster_key": "nyt-siena", "id": "sc-nyt-siena-2026-10-26" }, { "pollster": "Patinkin Research Strategies", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-27", "field_end": "2026-10-29", "published": "2026-10-29", "sample_size": 500, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://static1.squarespace.com/static/54512d3ce4b07de69d8320c7/t/6ae4c78764ecea053693b5e4/1793378183635/PRS.SCStatewidePoll.Toplines.103026.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Hackett 3%, Whitener 3%, someone else 2%. Topline document does not state RV/LV; LV per pollcheck.co.uk", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Patinkin Research Strategies, Democratic-aligned firm; sponsor not disclosed)", "pollster_key": "patinkin-research-strategies", "id": "sc-patinkin-research-strategies-2026-10-29" } ], "office": "senate", "page": "/races/senate/south-carolina-2026.html" }, { "id": "ne-senate", "state": "Nebraska", "code": "NE", "race_name": "Nebraska U.S. Senate", "slug": "nebraska-2026", "candidates": { "dem": "Dan Osborn", "rep": "Pete Ricketts" }, "polls": [ { "pollster": "Impact Research", "sponsor": "Dan Osborn campaign", "field_start": "2026-02-02", "field_end": "2026-02-05", "published": "2026-02-18", "sample_size": 600, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 48, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Nebraska#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Osborn for Senate release of Impact Research poll)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head.", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Dan Osborn campaign internal)", "pollster_key": "impact-research", "id": "ne-impact-research-2026-02-05" }, { "pollster": "Tavern Research", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-05-08", "field_end": "2026-05-11", "published": "2026-05-11", "sample_size": 1165, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 42, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Nebraska#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Tavern Research release)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. Taken before the May 12 primary", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Tavern Research, Democratic-aligned firm; sponsor not disclosed)", "pollster_key": "tavern-research", "id": "ne-tavern-research-2026-05-11" }, { "pollster": "Impact Research", "sponsor": "Dan Osborn campaign", "field_start": "2026-08-09", "field_end": "2026-08-13", "published": "2026-08-13", "sample_size": 600, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Nebraska#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Omaha World-Herald, Aug 26)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Dan Osborn campaign internal)", "pollster_key": "impact-research", "id": "ne-impact-research-2026-08-13" }, { "pollster": "GBAO", "sponsor": "Working Class Majority PAC", "field_start": "2026-09-03", "field_end": "2026-09-08", "published": "2026-09-08", "sample_size": 800, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/nebraska", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites Working Class Majority PAC memo)", "matchup_note": "Single-source; memo not opened", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Working Class Majority PAC, supports Osborn)", "pollster_key": "gbao", "id": "ne-gbao-2026-09-08" }, { "pollster": "SurveyUSA", "sponsor": "Grant Forbes, LLC (per pollcheck.co.uk)", "field_start": "2026-09-08", "field_end": "2026-09-13", "published": "2026-09-13", "sample_size": 503, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 42, "source_url": "https://newsweek.com/pete-ricketts-nebraska-state-trump-won-12567170", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "Other + undecided = 12% combined (270toWin). Sponsor named only by pollcheck.co.uk; SurveyUSA report page did not load", "pollster_key": "surveyusa", "id": "ne-surveyusa-2026-09-13" }, { "pollster": "co/efficient", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-28", "field_end": "2026-09-30", "published": "2026-09-30", "sample_size": 1113, "population": "LV", "dem": 40, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/ne/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Full ballot: Marvin 2, Richards 1, Conboy 1. Head-to-head question: Ricketts 48, Osborn 43, undecided 8 (not recorded)", "pollster_key": "coefficient", "id": "ne-coefficient-2026-09-30" }, { "pollster": "YouGov", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-24", "field_end": "2026-10-03", "published": "2026-10-03", "sample_size": 1809, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://newsweek.com/pete-ricketts-nebraska-state-trump-won-12567170", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "270toWin lists 1,808 LV", "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "ne-yougov-2026-10-03" }, { "pollster": "NPA Polling (National Public Affairs)", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-02", "field_end": "2026-10-05", "published": "2026-10-05", "sample_size": 800, "population": "LV", "dem": 43, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://backend.natpublicaffairs.com/media/NE_Tracker_R2_Trend_Memo_102226.7.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Round 1 figures as restated in NPA's Round 2 trend memo. Head-to-head: Ricketts 49, Osborn 46 (not recorded)", "pollster_key": "npa-polling", "id": "ne-npa-polling-2026-10-05" }, { "pollster": "NPA Polling (National Public Affairs)", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-15", "field_end": "2026-10-18", "published": "2026-10-18", "sample_size": 598, "population": "LV", "dem": 43, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://backend.natpublicaffairs.com/media/NE_Tracker_R2_Trend_Memo_102226.7.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Full ballot incl. leaners: Marvin 2, Richards 1, Conboy 2. Head-to-head: Ricketts 50, Osborn 47 (not recorded)", "pollster_key": "npa-polling", "id": "ne-npa-polling-2026-10-18" }, { "pollster": "Concord Public Opinion Partners", "sponsor": "Education Reform Now Advocacy", "field_start": "2026-10-15", "field_end": "2026-10-18", "published": "2026-10-18", "sample_size": 500, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 41, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/nebraska", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites Concord Public Opinion Partners release)", "matchup_note": "Single-source; release not opened", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Education Reform Now Advocacy, advocacy group (sponsor per pollcheck.co.uk))", "pollster_key": "concord-public-opinion-partners", "id": "ne-concord-public-opinion-partners-2026-10-18" }, { "pollster": "Impact Research", "sponsor": "Dan Osborn campaign", "field_start": "2026-10-14", "field_end": "2026-10-20", "published": "2026-10-20", "sample_size": 600, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 49, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/nebraska", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites Impact Research memo)", "matchup_note": "Memo also reports a second version: Osborn 48, Ricketts 50 (not recorded); memo could not be opened", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Dan Osborn campaign internal)", "pollster_key": "impact-research", "id": "ne-impact-research-2026-10-20" }, { "pollster": "GBAO", "sponsor": "Working Class Majority PAC", "field_start": "2026-10-18", "field_end": "2026-10-22", "published": "2026-10-22", "sample_size": 800, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/nebraska", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites DDHQ poll listing)", "matchup_note": "Single-source; memo not opened", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Working Class Majority PAC, supports Osborn)", "pollster_key": "gbao", "id": "ne-gbao-2026-10-22" }, { "pollster": "Echelon Insights", "sponsor": "NetChoice", "field_start": "2026-10-16", "field_end": "2026-10-23", "published": "2026-10-27", "sample_size": 407, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://netchoice.org/netchoice-echelon-insights-poll-voters-rank-ai-regulation-far-behind-cost-of-living-want-one-national-ai-standard/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Richards 2, Conboy 1; MoE +/-6.3", "pollster_key": "echelon", "id": "ne-echelon-2026-10-23" }, { "pollster": "New York Times / Siena", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-23", "field_end": "2026-10-29", "published": "2026-10-31", "sample_size": 809, "population": "LV", "dem": 43, "rep": 49, "source_url": "https://sri.siena.edu/2026/10/31/nytimes-siena-poll-of-likely-nebraska-voters/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Siena post gives toplines only; field dates and sample per pollcheck.co.uk (NYT toplines not openable)", "pollster_key": "nyt-siena", "id": "ne-nyt-siena-2026-10-29" } ], "office": "senate", "page": "/races/senate/nebraska-2026.html", "dem_party": "I", "editorial_note": "Independent Dan Osborn is shown in purple; there is no Democrat in this race." }, { "id": "ga-governor", "state": "Georgia", "code": "GAGOV", "race_name": "Georgia Governor", "slug": "georgia-2026", "candidates": { "dem": "Keisha Lance Bottoms", "rep": "Rick Jackson" }, "polls": [ { "pollster": "Echelon Insights", "sponsor": "NetChoice", "field_start": "2026-04-03", "field_end": "2026-04-09", "published": "2026-04-09", "sample_size": 407, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Georgia_gubernatorial_election#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites NetChoice multi-state survey)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. Pre-runoff hypothetical; Georgia sample within NetChoice survey", "pollster_key": "echelon", "id": "gagov-echelon-2026-04-09" }, { "pollster": "Concord Public Opinion Partners (D)", "sponsor": "Education Reform Now Advocacy", "field_start": "2026-05-30", "field_end": "2026-06-02", "published": "2026-06-02", "sample_size": 510, "population": "LV", "dem": 53, "rep": 38, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Georgia_gubernatorial_election#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Concord Public Opinion Partners / Education Reform Now Advocacy)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. Pre-runoff hypothetical", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Education Reform Now Advocacy; Democratic firm flagged (D) by Wikipedia)", "pollster_key": "concord-public-opinion-partners", "id": "gagov-concord-public-opinion-partners-2026-06-02" }, { "pollster": "Fox News / Beacon–Shaw", "sponsor": "Fox News", "field_start": "2026-06-23", "field_end": "2026-06-27", "published": "2026-06-27", "sample_size": 1002, "population": "RV", "dem": 52, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Georgia_gubernatorial_election#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Fox News)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "fox", "id": "gagov-fox-2026-06-27" }, { "pollster": "Wick", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-06-27", "field_end": "2026-06-30", "published": "2026-06-30", "sample_size": 1175, "population": "LV", "dem": 43, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Georgia_gubernatorial_election#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Wick)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "wick", "id": "gagov-wick-2026-06-30" }, { "pollster": "State Navigate", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-07-10", "field_end": "2026-07-13", "published": "2026-07-13", "sample_size": 448, "population": "LV", "dem": 51, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Georgia_gubernatorial_election#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites State Navigate)", "matchup_note": "Wikipedia also lists a second version at Bottoms 50, Jackson 43, 7% undecided", "pollster_key": "state-navigate", "id": "gagov-state-navigate-2026-07-13" }, { "pollster": "Fabrizio Ward (R) / Impact Research (D)", "sponsor": "AARP", "field_start": "2026-07-13", "field_end": "2026-07-16", "published": "2026-07-16", "sample_size": 1060, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Georgia_gubernatorial_election#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites AARP)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "fabrizio-ward", "id": "gagov-fabrizio-ward-2026-07-16" }, { "pollster": "Quantus Insights", "sponsor": "Natural Gas Association of Georgia", "field_start": "2026-07-29", "field_end": "2026-08-01", "published": "2026-08-01", "sample_size": 815, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Georgia_gubernatorial_election#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Quantus Insights)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "quantus", "id": "gagov-quantus-2026-08-01" }, { "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-08-16", "field_end": "2026-08-17", "published": "2026-08-17", "sample_size": 800, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Georgia_gubernatorial_election#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites InsiderAdvantage)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "insideradvantage", "id": "gagov-insideradvantage-2026-08-17" }, { "pollster": "Rasmussen Reports", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-14", "field_end": "2026-09-14", "published": "2026-09-14", "sample_size": 1019, "population": "LV", "dem": 45, "rep": 48, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Georgia_gubernatorial_election#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Rasmussen Reports)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "rasmussen", "id": "gagov-rasmussen-2026-09-14" }, { "pollster": "YouGov", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-15", "field_end": "2026-09-18", "published": "2026-09-18", "sample_size": 3299, "population": "LV", "dem": 44, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Georgia_gubernatorial_election#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites YouGov)", "matchup_note": "Wikipedia also lists a 3,069 LV model (Jackson 47, Bottoms 44) and 3,414 RV (Jackson 45, Bottoms 44)", "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "gagov-yougov-2026-09-18" }, { "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-22", "field_end": "2026-09-23", "published": "2026-09-23", "sample_size": 1200, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 48, "source_url": "https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-georgia-survey-jackson-leads-by-two-in-race-for-governor-ossoff-leads-by-eight-in-senate-contest/", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites InsiderAdvantage); release URL from pollcheck.co.uk, not opened", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "insideradvantage", "id": "gagov-insideradvantage-2026-09-23" }, { "pollster": "Big Data Poll", "sponsor": "Public Polling Project", "field_start": "2026-09-21", "field_end": "2026-09-23", "published": "2026-09-24", "sample_size": 678, "population": "LV", "dem": 46.7, "rep": 48.7, "source_url": "https://www.bigdatapoll.com/blog/peach-state-poll-jon-ossoff-opens-up-lead-over-mike-collins-in-georgia/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "LV initial ballot; with leaners Jackson 50.5, Bottoms 49.5. RV (712): Jackson 47.6, Bottoms 45.7", "pollster_key": "big-data", "id": "gagov-big-data-2026-09-23" }, { "pollster": "InsiderAdvantage", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-12", "field_end": "2026-10-13", "published": "2026-10-14", "sample_size": 800, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 49, "source_url": "https://jamesmagazinega.com/2026/10/14/georgia-governors-poll-from-insideradvantage-jackson-maintains-slight-edge/", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "insideradvantage", "id": "gagov-insideradvantage-2026-10-13" }, { "pollster": "University of Georgia SPIA", "sponsor": "The Atlanta Journal-Constitution", "field_start": "2026-10-07", "field_end": "2026-10-15", "published": "2026-10-20", "sample_size": 1000, "population": "LV", "dem": 45, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/ajcuga-poll-bottoms-jackson-dead-heat-georgia-governor-race/76TN3NROXRG4HDILVYDUMJS4RQ/", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "ajc-uga", "id": "gagov-ajc-uga-2026-10-15" }, { "pollster": "Quantus Insights", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-15", "field_end": "2026-10-17", "published": "2026-10-19", "sample_size": 755, "population": "LV", "dem": 47.5, "rep": 49.0, "source_url": "https://www.atlantanewsfirst.com/2026/10/19/new-georgia-poll-ossoff-leads-by-nearly-7-jackson-dolezal-cling-narrow-edges/", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "With undecided leaners pushed; initial ballot had Jackson +1.6 with 4.5% undecided (exact candidate shares not reported in the story)", "pollster_key": "quantus", "id": "gagov-quantus-2026-10-17" }, { "pollster": "ActiVote", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-06", "field_end": "2026-10-20", "published": "2026-10-20", "sample_size": 400, "population": "LV", "dem": 48.5, "rep": 51.5, "source_url": "https://www.activote.net/polls/2026/ga-governor/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Two-candidate shares summing to 100%", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Forced-choice result (undecided voters pushed, totals near 100%); listed but excluded from first-choice averages", "pollster_key": "activote", "id": "gagov-activote-2026-10-20" }, { "pollster": "Echelon Insights", "sponsor": "NetChoice", "field_start": "2026-10-16", "field_end": "2026-10-23", "published": "2026-10-27", "sample_size": 508, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 48, "source_url": "https://netchoice.org/netchoice-echelon-insights-poll-voters-rank-ai-regulation-far-behind-cost-of-living-want-one-national-ai-standard/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Georgia sample within NetChoice multi-state survey", "pollster_key": "echelon", "id": "gagov-echelon-2026-10-23" }, { "pollster": "State Navigate", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-23", "field_end": "2026-10-27", "published": "2026-10-28", "sample_size": 679, "population": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://articles.statenavigate.com/ga/keisha-lance-bottoms-holds-narrow-lead-in-georgia-governor-race/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "state-navigate", "id": "gagov-state-navigate-2026-10-27" } ], "office": "governor", "page": "/races/governor/georgia-2026.html" }, { "id": "wi-governor", "state": "Wisconsin", "code": "WIGOV", "race_name": "Wisconsin Governor", "slug": "wisconsin-2026", "candidates": { "dem": "David Crowley", "rep": "Tom Tiffany" }, "polls": [ { "pollster": "TIPP Insights", "sponsor": "League of American Workers", "field_start": "2026-03-13", "field_end": "2026-03-19", "published": "2026-03-19", "sample_size": 1175, "population": "LV", "dem": 42, "rep": 41, "source_url": "https://tippinsights.com/league-of-american-workers-survey-wisconsin-3/", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites TIPP Insights / League of American Workers)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. Pre-primary hypothetical", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (League of American Workers, conservative group; flagged (R) by Wikipedia)", "pollster_key": "tipp", "id": "wigov-tipp-2026-03-19" }, { "pollster": "RMG Research", "sponsor": "Institute for Reforming Government", "field_start": "2026-07-20", "field_end": "2026-07-24", "published": "2026-07-24", "sample_size": 800, "population": "RV", "dem": 46, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://reforminggovernment.org/irg-poll-inflation-still-rules-free-markets-still-win-race-still-open/", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites RMG Research); sponsor per pollcheck.co.uk", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. Pre-primary hypothetical", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Little-known pollster whose original release we could not inspect; listed for context, not averaged", "pollster_key": "rmg-research", "id": "wigov-rmg-research-2026-07-24" }, { "pollster": "GBAO (D)", "sponsor": "Protect Our Wisconsin PAC (DGA-backed)", "field_start": "2026-07-30", "field_end": "2026-08-03", "published": "2026-08-03", "sample_size": 800, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000019f-f6da-d9b2-a7bf-fedf3b250000", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Politico-hosted memo); sponsor per pollcheck.co.uk", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. Pre-primary hypothetical", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Protect Our Wisconsin PAC, backed by the Democratic Governors Association)", "pollster_key": "gbao", "id": "wigov-gbao-2026-08-03" }, { "pollster": "Platform Communications", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-08-12", "field_end": "2026-08-13", "published": "2026-08-16", "sample_size": 500, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://www.wpr.org/news/crowley-leading-tiffany-four-points-new-poll", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "Conducted by Platform's Keith Gilkes (R) with Democratic strategist Tanya Bjork; no sponsor stated; Wikipedia flags (R)", "pollster_key": "platform-communications", "id": "wigov-platform-communications-2026-08-13" }, { "pollster": "TIPP Insights", "sponsor": "League of American Workers", "field_start": "2026-08-14", "field_end": "2026-08-18", "published": "2026-08-18", "sample_size": 1199, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://tippinsights.com/league-of-american-workers-survey-wisconsin-4/", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites TIPP Insights / League of American Workers)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (League of American Workers, conservative group; flagged (R) by Wikipedia)", "pollster_key": "tipp", "id": "wigov-tipp-2026-08-18" }, { "pollster": "Marquette University Law School", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-08-12", "field_end": "2026-08-20", "published": "2026-08-26", "sample_size": 738, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2026/08/26/marquette-law-poll-finds-crowley-leading-tiffany-among-likely-voters-tied-among-all-registered-voters/", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Marquette Law School); release URL from pollcheck.co.uk", "matchup_note": "LV figure; RV (891): 44-44", "pollster_key": "marquette", "id": "wigov-marquette-2026-08-20" }, { "pollster": "Marquette University Law School", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-16", "field_end": "2026-09-23", "published": "2026-09-30", "sample_size": 692, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2026/09/30/mlsp91-press-release/", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Marquette Law School); release URL from pollcheck.co.uk", "matchup_note": "LV figure; RV (843): Crowley 46, Tiffany 45", "pollster_key": "marquette", "id": "wigov-marquette-2026-09-23" }, { "pollster": "Z to A Research (D)", "sponsor": "Rust Belt Rising", "field_start": "2026-09-28", "field_end": "2026-10-01", "published": "2026-10-01", "sample_size": 662, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://x.com/rbrtraining/status/2108302504446337272", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Rust Belt Rising post on X); sponsor per pollcheck.co.uk", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Rust Belt Rising, Democratic-aligned group)", "pollster_key": "z-to-a-research", "id": "wigov-z-to-a-research-2026-10-01" }, { "pollster": "YouGov", "sponsor": "City Forward Collective / CFC Action Fund", "field_start": "2026-09-22", "field_end": "2026-10-09", "published": "2026-10-16", "sample_size": 1715, "population": "A", "dem": 46, "rep": 42, "source_url": "https://cityforwardcollective.org/new-wisconsin-poll-wisconsinites-back-public-school-options-and-equal-accountability/", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites City Forward Collective release)", "matchup_note": "All adults; release cites 2,000 adults overall, Wikipedia lists 1,715 for this question", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (City Forward Collective / CFC Action Fund; flagged (D) by Wikipedia)", "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "wigov-yougov-2026-10-09" }, { "pollster": "Marquette University Law School", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-14", "field_end": "2026-10-22", "published": "2026-10-28", "sample_size": 668, "population": "LV", "dem": 51, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2026/10/28/mlsp92-press-release/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "LV figure; RV (818): Crowley 47, Tiffany 44, 9% undecided", "pollster_key": "marquette", "id": "wigov-marquette-2026-10-22" }, { "pollster": "Wick", "sponsor": "League of American Workers", "field_start": "2026-10-19", "field_end": "2026-10-23", "published": "2026-10-23", "sample_size": 1213, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://wick.io/law-wisconsin-poll", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites Wick / League of American Workers release; release page opened but numbers not readable; original not opened)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (League of American Workers, conservative group)", "pollster_key": "wick", "id": "wigov-wick-2026-10-23" } ], "office": "governor", "page": "/races/governor/wisconsin-2026.html" }, { "id": "nv-governor", "state": "Nevada", "code": "NVGOV", "race_name": "Nevada Governor", "slug": "nevada-2026", "candidates": { "dem": "Aaron Ford", "rep": "Joe Lombardo" }, "polls": [ { "pollster": "Hart Research (D)", "sponsor": "The Majority Institute", "field_start": "2026-02-11", "field_end": "2026-02-17", "published": "2026-02-17", "sample_size": 800, "population": "LV", "dem": 43, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://crookedmedia.substack.com/p/what-a-day-mar-a-uh-oh", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Crooked Media); sponsor per pollcheck.co.uk", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. Pre-primary hypothetical", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (The Majority Institute, Democratic-aligned)", "pollster_key": "hart-research", "id": "nvgov-hart-research-2026-02-17" }, { "pollster": "Noble Predictive Insights", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-03-10", "field_end": "2026-03-13", "published": "2026-03-27", "sample_size": 845, "population": "RV", "dem": 38, "rep": 39, "source_url": "https://www.noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/nvgov-lombardo-keeps-pace-with-ford-as-undecideds-hold-the-balance", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Noble Predictive Insights)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. Pre-primary hypothetical", "pollster_key": "noble-predictive-insights", "id": "nvgov-noble-predictive-insights-2026-03-13" }, { "pollster": "Global Strategy Group (D)", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-05-05", "field_end": "2026-05-11", "published": "2026-05-11", "sample_size": 700, "population": "LV", "dem": 42, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Nevada_gubernatorial_election#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Global Strategy Group via Jacob Rubashkin on X)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. Pre-primary hypothetical", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Global Strategy Group, Democratic firm; client not confirmed)", "pollster_key": "global-strategy-group", "id": "nvgov-global-strategy-group-2026-05-11" }, { "pollster": "Public Opinion Strategies (R)", "sponsor": "Republican Governors Association", "field_start": "2026-06-27", "field_end": "2026-06-29", "published": "2026-06-29", "sample_size": null, "population": "LV", "dem": 42, "rep": 51, "source_url": "https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/three-gop-polls-show-lombardo-with-sizable-lead-in-nevada-governors-race", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites The Nevada Independent)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Republican Governors Association / pro-Lombardo)", "pollster_key": "public-opinion-strategies", "id": "nvgov-public-opinion-strategies-2026-06-29" }, { "pollster": "Public Policy Polling (D)", "sponsor": "Democratic Governors Association", "field_start": "2026-07-15", "field_end": "2026-07-16", "published": "2026-07-22", "sample_size": 558, "population": "LV", "dem": 44, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://democraticgovernors.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/NevadaPPPpoll07222026.pdf", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites The Nevada Independent)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Democratic Governors Association)", "pollster_key": "ppp", "id": "nvgov-ppp-2026-07-16" }, { "pollster": "Tarrance Group (R)", "sponsor": "Better Nevada PAC / Republican Governors Association", "field_start": "2026-07-25", "field_end": "2026-07-29", "published": "2026-07-29", "sample_size": null, "population": "LV", "dem": 43, "rep": 50, "source_url": "https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/three-gop-polls-show-lombardo-with-sizable-lead-in-nevada-governors-race", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites The Nevada Independent); sponsor per pollcheck.co.uk", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Better Nevada PAC, Lombardo's political operation, and RGA)", "pollster_key": "tarrance-group", "id": "nvgov-tarrance-group-2026-07-29" }, { "pollster": "Emerson College", "sponsor": "KLAS-TV", "field_start": "2026-09-05", "field_end": "2026-09-08", "published": "2026-09-10", "sample_size": 680, "population": "LV", "dem": 44, "rep": 42, "source_url": "https://emersoncollegepolling.com/nevada-2026-poll-ford-and-lombardo/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Other 2% per Wikipedia's table", "pollster_key": "emerson", "id": "nvgov-emerson-2026-09-08" }, { "pollster": "Noble Predictive Insights", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-22", "field_end": "2026-09-26", "published": "2026-10-06", "sample_size": 708, "population": "LV", "dem": 40, "rep": 42, "source_url": "https://www.noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/lombardo-tries-to-escape-trump-s-orbit-up-2-over-ford", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Noble Predictive Insights)", "matchup_note": "LV figure; RV (800) was Lombardo 38, Ford 37", "pollster_key": "noble-predictive-insights", "id": "nvgov-noble-predictive-insights-2026-09-26" }, { "pollster": "Concord Public Opinion Partners", "sponsor": "Education Reform Now Advocacy", "field_start": "2026-09-26", "field_end": "2026-09-30", "published": "2026-09-30", "sample_size": 565, "population": "LV", "dem": 42, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://concordpublicopinionpartners.org/polls/nevada-ge-2026", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites Concord Public Opinion Partners release; original not opened)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Education Reform Now Advocacy, Democratic-aligned)", "pollster_key": "concord-public-opinion-partners", "id": "nvgov-concord-public-opinion-partners-2026-09-30" }, { "pollster": "Global Strategy Group", "sponsor": "Aaron Ford campaign", "field_start": "2026-10-08", "field_end": "2026-10-13", "published": "2026-10-15", "sample_size": 700, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 48, "source_url": "https://data.ddhq.io/polls/2026/10/19/Global-Strategy-Group/Aaron-Ford-Nevada-2026-10-08-2026-10-13", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "Memo hosted by Decision Desk HQ", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Aaron Ford campaign internal)", "pollster_key": "global-strategy-group", "id": "nvgov-global-strategy-group-2026-10-13" }, { "pollster": "RedBox Research", "sponsor": "A Fight Worth Having (super PAC)", "field_start": "2026-10-20", "field_end": "2026-10-23", "published": "2026-10-25", "sample_size": 1470, "population": "LV", "dem": 45.6, "rep": 42.6, "source_url": "https://afightworthhaving.com/polling/2026/nevada", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Other = Danielle Ford 2.4, someone else 0.3, None of these candidates 2.7", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (A Fight Worth Having, a super PAC; RedBox is its polling unit)", "pollster_key": "redbox-research", "id": "nvgov-redbox-research-2026-10-23" }, { "pollster": "Hart Research (D)", "sponsor": "A More Affordable Nevada (DGA-backed)", "field_start": "2026-10-20", "field_end": "2026-10-25", "published": "2026-10-25", "sample_size": 950, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://hub.nationaljournal.com/wednesday-morning-quarterbacking", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (A More Affordable Nevada, backed by the Democratic Governors Association)", "pollster_key": "hart-research", "id": "nvgov-hart-research-2026-10-25" }, { "pollster": "Noble Predictive Insights", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-26", "field_end": "2026-10-28", "published": "2026-10-30", "sample_size": 487, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://www.noblepredictiveinsights.com/post/nevada-poll-of-record-lombardo-ford-deadlocked-at-47", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Other = Danielle Ford 1, another candidate 1", "pollster_key": "noble-predictive-insights", "id": "nvgov-noble-predictive-insights-2026-10-28" } ], "office": "governor", "page": "/races/governor/nevada-2026.html" }, { "id": "ks-governor", "state": "Kansas", "code": "KSGOV", "race_name": "Kansas Governor", "slug": "kansas-2026", "candidates": { "dem": "Cindy Holscher", "rep": "Ty Masterson" }, "polls": [ { "pollster": "Global Strategy Group", "sponsor": "Cindy Holscher campaign", "field_start": "2026-08-13", "field_end": "2026-08-16", "published": "2026-08-16", "sample_size": 600, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://sunflowerstatejournal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/KS_Gov-Memo_D08.26.26.docx.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "GSG memo (MoE 4.0%) does not name the client; sponsor per pollcheck.co.uk and Sunflower State Journal (poll released by Holscher).", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Holscher campaign internal)", "pollster_key": "global-strategy-group", "id": "ksgov-global-strategy-group-2026-08-16" }, { "pollster": "co/efficient", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-08", "field_end": "2026-09-10", "published": "2026-09-10", "sample_size": 915, "population": "LV", "dem": 43, "rep": 51, "source_url": "https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/ks/", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + 270toWin; cites co/efficient release)", "matchup_note": "270toWin lists 6% other/undecided combined; MoE 3.2%.", "pollster_key": "coefficient", "id": "ksgov-coefficient-2026-09-10" }, { "pollster": "Global Strategy Group", "sponsor": "Democratic Attorneys General Association", "field_start": "2026-09-13", "field_end": "2026-09-16", "published": "2026-09-16", "sample_size": 800, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://static.politico.com/0f/52/d84e43ae45cf803b787113de4d91/daga-ks-interested-parties-memo-10-01-26.pdf", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites DAGA memo via Politico)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Democratic Attorneys General Association)", "pollster_key": "global-strategy-group", "id": "ksgov-global-strategy-group-2026-09-16" }, { "pollster": "Emerson College", "sponsor": "Nexstar Media", "field_start": "2026-09-15", "field_end": "2026-09-16", "published": "2026-09-18", "sample_size": 750, "population": "LV", "dem": 44, "rep": 51, "source_url": "https://emersoncollegepolling.com/kansas-2026/", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + 270toWin; cites Emerson release)", "matchup_note": "MoE 3.6%.", "pollster_key": "emerson", "id": "ksgov-emerson-2026-09-16" }, { "pollster": "New York Times / Siena", "sponsor": "The New York Times", "field_start": "2026-09-22", "field_end": "2026-09-30", "published": "2026-10-03", "sample_size": 605, "population": "LV", "dem": 44, "rep": 49, "source_url": "https://www.newsweek.com/governor-races-shift-toward-democrats-in-states-trump-won-by-double-digits-12627211", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "Newsweek: don't know/refused 7%, another candidate under 0.5% (recorded as 0). MoE 4.6%.", "pollster_key": "nyt-siena", "id": "ksgov-nyt-siena-2026-09-30" }, { "pollster": "YouGov", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-24", "field_end": "2026-10-04", "published": "2026-10-06", "sample_size": 2255, "population": "LV", "dem": 44, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://www.newsweek.com/governor-races-shift-toward-democrats-in-states-trump-won-by-double-digits-12627211", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "MoE 3.2%. Release PDF: https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_ks_20260921_lv.pdf (270toWin lists n=2,252).", "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "ksgov-yougov-2026-10-04" }, { "pollster": "Global Strategy Group", "sponsor": "Cindy Holscher campaign", "field_start": "2026-10-18", "field_end": "2026-10-21", "published": "2026-10-21", "sample_size": 600, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://globalstrategygroup.app.box.com/s/vwojuwfb4y52lmvw4r5c5b60svfyrmqc", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites GSG memo)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Holscher campaign internal)", "pollster_key": "global-strategy-group", "id": "ksgov-global-strategy-group-2026-10-21" }, { "pollster": "RedBox Research", "sponsor": "A Fight Worth Having (super PAC)", "field_start": "2026-10-20", "field_end": "2026-10-23", "published": "2026-10-25", "sample_size": 1301, "population": "LV", "dem": 45.6, "rep": 48.0, "source_url": "https://afightworthhaving.com/polling/2026/kansas", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Also 1.1% prefer not to answer, 0.2% did not vote in this race.", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (A Fight Worth Having, super PAC)", "pollster_key": "redbox-research", "id": "ksgov-redbox-research-2026-10-23" }, { "pollster": "CNN / SSRS", "sponsor": "CNN", "field_start": "2026-10-20", "field_end": "2026-10-26", "published": "2026-10-29", "sample_size": 838, "population": "LV", "dem": 45, "rep": 50, "source_url": "https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/28856723-cnn-poll-conducted-by-ssrs-kansas-october/", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites CNN/SSRS release)", "matchup_note": "Original document could not be opened; numbers from pollcheck.co.uk only. Field end may be Oct 27 (the same survey's Senate entry elsewhere lists Oct 20-27).", "pollster_key": "cnn-ssrs", "id": "ksgov-cnn-ssrs-2026-10-26" }, { "pollster": "Washington Post / George Mason", "sponsor": "The Washington Post", "field_start": "2026-10-22", "field_end": "2026-10-26", "published": "2026-10-30", "sample_size": 801, "population": "LV", "dem": 51, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/tablet/2026/10/30/oct-22-26-2026-washington-post-schar-school-kansas-poll/", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites Washington Post release); D+6 margin confirmed by mishtalk.com summary", "matchup_note": "Post noted much higher cooperation among registered Democrats than Republicans in this sample.", "pollster_key": "wapo-gmu", "id": "ksgov-wapo-gmu-2026-10-26" }, { "pollster": "Emerson College", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-26", "field_end": "2026-10-28", "published": "2026-10-30", "sample_size": 800, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 50, "source_url": "https://emersoncollegepolling.com/october-2026-kansas-poll-hamilton-maintains-edge-over-marshall/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "With undecideds' leanings allocated: Masterson 53, Holscher 48. MoE 3.5%.", "pollster_key": "emerson", "id": "ksgov-emerson-2026-10-28" } ], "office": "governor", "page": "/races/governor/kansas-2026.html" }, { "id": "oh-governor", "state": "Ohio", "code": "OHGOV", "race_name": "Ohio Governor", "slug": "ohio-2026", "candidates": { "dem": "Amy Acton", "rep": "Vivek Ramaswamy" }, "polls": [ { "pollster": "EMC Research", "sponsor": "Ohio Environmental Council", "field_start": "2026-02-10", "field_end": "2026-02-22", "published": "2026-02-22", "sample_size": 1343, "population": "LV", "dem": 53, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://theoec.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/OEC-Ohio-Survey-Results-2026.pdf", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (Wikipedia + pollcheck.co.uk + 270toWin; cites OEC release)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. MoE 2.7%.", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Ohio Environmental Council, advocacy group; Democratic-affiliated pollster)", "pollster_key": "emc-research", "id": "ohgov-emc-research-2026-02-22" }, { "pollster": "Quantus Insights", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-03-13", "field_end": "2026-03-14", "published": "2026-03-14", "sample_size": 809, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://quantusinsights.org/f/quantus-insights-ohio-voters-signal-competitive-2026-environment", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (Wikipedia + pollcheck.co.uk + 270toWin; cites Quantus Insights release)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. MoE 3.8%.", "pollster_key": "quantus", "id": "ohgov-quantus-2026-03-14" }, { "pollster": "Echelon Insights", "sponsor": "NetChoice", "field_start": "2026-04-03", "field_end": "2026-04-09", "published": "2026-04-09", "sample_size": 413, "population": "LV", "dem": 44, "rep": 49, "source_url": "https://netchoice.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/NetChoice-Apr-2026-National-Antitrust-Survey-Topline.pdf", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (Wikipedia + pollcheck.co.uk + 270toWin; cites NetChoice topline)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. MoE 5.8%.", "pollster_key": "echelon", "id": "ohgov-echelon-2026-04-09" }, { "pollster": "Bowling Green State University / YouGov", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-04-07", "field_end": "2026-04-14", "published": "2026-04-14", "sample_size": 1000, "population": "RV", "dem": 47, "rep": 48, "source_url": "https://scholarworks.bgsu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1021&context=depo", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (Wikipedia + pollcheck.co.uk + 270toWin; cites BGSU release)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. 270toWin lists MoE 3.9%; Wikipedia 4.5%.", "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "ohgov-yougov-2026-04-14" }, { "pollster": "Fox News / Beacon–Shaw", "sponsor": "Fox News", "field_start": "2026-05-28", "field_end": "2026-06-01", "published": "2026-06-03", "sample_size": 1015, "population": "RV", "dem": 50, "rep": 49, "source_url": "https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2026/06/fox_may-28-june-1-2026_complete_ohio_topline_june-3-release.pdf", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (Wikipedia + pollcheck.co.uk + 270toWin; cites Fox News topline)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "fox", "id": "ohgov-fox-2026-06-01" }, { "pollster": "Tulchin Research", "sponsor": "John Kulewicz campaign (Democratic AG candidate)", "field_start": "2026-06-02", "field_end": "2026-06-04", "published": "2026-06-04", "sample_size": 600, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://www.nbc4i.com/news/your-local-election-hq/new-poll-shows-democratic-candidates-ahead-in-ohio/", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (Wikipedia + pollcheck.co.uk; cites NBC4)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (John Kulewicz campaign, Democratic AG candidate)", "pollster_key": "tulchin-research", "id": "ohgov-tulchin-research-2026-06-04" }, { "pollster": "Fabrizio Ward (R) / Impact Research (D)", "sponsor": "AARP", "field_start": "2026-06-14", "field_end": "2026-06-16", "published": "2026-06-25", "sample_size": 800, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://www.aarp.org/press/releases/2026-06-25-ohio-poll-50-voters-key-tight-senate-governor-races/", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (Wikipedia + pollcheck.co.uk + 270toWin; cites AARP release)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Little-known pollster whose original release we could not inspect; listed for context, not averaged", "pollster_key": "fabrizio-ward", "id": "ohgov-fabrizio-ward-2026-06-16" }, { "pollster": "New York Times / Siena", "sponsor": "The New York Times", "field_start": "2026-06-15", "field_end": "2026-06-28", "published": "2026-07-01", "sample_size": 601, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/07/01/polls/times-siena-ohio-poll-toplines.html", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (Wikipedia + pollcheck.co.uk + 270toWin; cites NYT/Siena toplines)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "nyt-siena", "id": "ohgov-nyt-siena-2026-06-28" }, { "pollster": "Tulchin Research", "sponsor": "John Kulewicz campaign (Democratic AG candidate)", "field_start": "2026-07-29", "field_end": "2026-08-04", "published": "2026-08-04", "sample_size": 600, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/28549388-oh-sen-gov-ag-tulchin-research-for-john-kulewicz/", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (Wikipedia + pollcheck.co.uk; cites Tulchin memo)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (John Kulewicz campaign, Democratic AG candidate)", "pollster_key": "tulchin-research", "id": "ohgov-tulchin-research-2026-08-04" }, { "pollster": "Fox News / Beacon–Shaw", "sponsor": "Fox News", "field_start": "2026-08-06", "field_end": "2026-08-10", "published": "2026-08-13", "sample_size": 1008, "population": "RV", "dem": 48, "rep": 50, "source_url": "https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2026/08/fox_august-6-10-2026_ohio_topline_august-13-release.pdf", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (Wikipedia + pollcheck.co.uk + 270toWin; cites Fox News topline)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "fox", "id": "ohgov-fox-2026-08-10" }, { "pollster": "Concord Public Opinion Partners", "sponsor": "Democrats for Education Reform", "field_start": "2026-08-29", "field_end": "2026-08-31", "published": "2026-08-31", "sample_size": 504, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 37, "source_url": "https://concordpublicopinionpartners.org/polls/ohio-ge-2026", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk only; cites Concord release)", "matchup_note": "Not listed on Wikipedia or 270toWin.", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Democrats for Education Reform; Democratic-affiliated pollster)", "pollster_key": "concord-public-opinion-partners", "id": "ohgov-concord-public-opinion-partners-2026-08-31" }, { "pollster": "Bowling Green State University / YouGov", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-01", "field_end": "2026-09-10", "published": "2026-09-10", "sample_size": 1000, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://scholarworks.bgsu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1027&context=depo", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (Wikipedia + pollcheck.co.uk + 270toWin; cites BGSU release)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "ohgov-yougov-2026-09-10" }, { "pollster": "Marist University", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-24", "field_end": "2026-09-27", "published": "2026-09-27", "sample_size": 1298, "population": "RV", "dem": 50, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/midterm-elections-in-ohio-september-2026/", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (Wikipedia + pollcheck.co.uk + 270toWin; cites Marist release)", "matchup_note": "Only a registered-voter figure was found for September.", "pollster_key": "marist", "id": "ohgov-marist-2026-09-27" }, { "pollster": "Big Data Poll", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-26", "field_end": "2026-09-27", "published": "2026-09-27", "sample_size": 680, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 48, "source_url": "https://www.bigdatapoll.com/blog/buckeye-state-poll-sherrod-brown-leads-jon-husted-for-us-senate-in-ohio/", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (Wikipedia + pollcheck.co.uk + 270toWin; cites Big Data Poll release)", "matchup_note": "Same survey's other LV version: Ramaswamy 46, Acton 44 (3 other, 7 undecided); RV (n=735) versions 47-46 and 45-43.", "pollster_key": "big-data", "id": "ohgov-big-data-2026-09-27" }, { "pollster": "Suffolk University", "sponsor": "USA Today", "field_start": "2026-09-23", "field_end": "2026-09-27", "published": "2026-09-29", "sample_size": 500, "population": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 41, "source_url": "https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/other-states/2026/9_29_2026_ohio_embargoed_marginals_part_1.pdf", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (Wikipedia + pollcheck.co.uk + 270toWin; cites Suffolk marginals)", "matchup_note": "MoE 4.4%.", "pollster_key": "suffolk", "id": "ohgov-suffolk-2026-09-27" }, { "pollster": "YouGov", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-18", "field_end": "2026-09-30", "published": "2026-09-30", "sample_size": 3780, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_oh_20260921_lv.pdf", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (Wikipedia + pollcheck.co.uk + 270toWin; cites YouGov release)", "matchup_note": "270toWin lists n=3,777.", "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "ohgov-yougov-2026-09-30" }, { "pollster": "New York Times / Siena", "sponsor": "The New York Times", "field_start": "2026-09-22", "field_end": "2026-10-01", "published": "2026-10-03", "sample_size": 616, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/10/03/polls/times-siena-ohio-poll-crosstabs.html", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (Wikipedia + pollcheck.co.uk + 270toWin; cites NYT/Siena crosstabs)", "matchup_note": "MoE 4.5%.", "pollster_key": "nyt-siena", "id": "ohgov-nyt-siena-2026-10-01" }, { "pollster": "CNN / SSRS", "sponsor": "CNN", "field_start": "2026-09-29", "field_end": "2026-10-05", "published": "2026-10-08", "sample_size": 760, "population": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 42, "source_url": "https://edition.cnn.com/2026/10/08/politics/cnn-polls-ohio-iowa-senate-governor-midterms", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (Wikipedia + pollcheck.co.uk + 270toWin; cites CNN report)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "cnn-ssrs", "id": "ohgov-cnn-ssrs-2026-10-05" }, { "pollster": "co/efficient", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-05", "field_end": "2026-10-06", "published": "2026-10-06", "sample_size": 925, "population": "LV", "dem": 43, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/oh/", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (Wikipedia + pollcheck.co.uk + 270toWin; cites co/efficient release)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "coefficient", "id": "ohgov-coefficient-2026-10-06" }, { "pollster": "Bowling Green State University / YouGov", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-29", "field_end": "2026-10-09", "published": "2026-10-09", "sample_size": 1000, "population": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://scholarworks.bgsu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1028&context=depo", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (Wikipedia + pollcheck.co.uk + 270toWin; cites BGSU release)", "matchup_note": "270toWin links article=1030 for this release; other/undecided listed as 6% combined by 270toWin.", "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "ohgov-yougov-2026-10-09" }, { "pollster": "GS Strategy Group (R) / New River Strategies (D)", "sponsor": "Cook Political Report", "field_start": "2026-10-09", "field_end": "2026-10-13", "published": "2026-10-13", "sample_size": 959, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/survey-research/battleground-district-project/senate-battleground-district-project-october", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + 270toWin; cites Cook Political Report)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "cook-gs", "id": "ohgov-cook-gs-2026-10-13" }, { "pollster": "Marist University", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-15", "field_end": "2026-10-18", "published": "2026-10-20", "sample_size": null, "population": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 43, "source_url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/midterm-elections-in-ohio-october-2026/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Likely-voter sample size not stated (registered voters n=1,176; LV MoE 4.5%). pollcheck.co.uk shows LV 51-43, but Marist's release says 50-43.", "pollster_key": "marist", "id": "ohgov-marist-2026-10-18" }, { "pollster": "ActiVote", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-27", "field_end": "2026-10-19", "published": "2026-10-19", "sample_size": 400, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 51, "source_url": "https://www.activote.net/polls/2026/oh-governor/", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + 270toWin; cites ActiVote)", "matchup_note": "Integer toplines per aggregators; ActiVote's later release describes this reading as Ramaswamy +2.8.", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Little-known pollster whose original release we could not inspect; listed for context, not averaged", "pollster_key": "activote", "id": "ohgov-activote-2026-10-19" }, { "pollster": "Fox News / Beacon–Shaw", "sponsor": "Fox News", "field_start": "2026-10-15", "field_end": "2026-10-19", "published": "2026-10-21", "sample_size": 1592, "population": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 48, "source_url": "https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2026/10/fox_october-15-19-2026_ohio_topline_october-21-release.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "RV version (n=2,005): Acton 51, Ramaswamy 47.", "pollster_key": "fox", "id": "ohgov-fox-2026-10-19" }, { "pollster": "Verasight / VoteHub", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-01", "field_end": "2026-10-20", "published": "2026-10-20", "sample_size": 531, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://cdn.votehub.com/pdfs/VoteHub_Verasight_Oct_2026_Ohio_Report_D1CB7735.pdf", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + 270toWin; cites VoteHub report)", "matchup_note": "Another version in the same report: 44-44.", "pollster_key": "votehub", "id": "ohgov-votehub-2026-10-20" }, { "pollster": "Echelon Insights", "sponsor": "NetChoice", "field_start": "2026-10-16", "field_end": "2026-10-23", "published": "2026-10-23", "sample_size": 508, "population": "LV", "dem": 45, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://netchoice.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/NetChoice-October-2026-Antitrust-Tech-Survey-Topline.pdf", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk + 270toWin; cites NetChoice topline)", "matchup_note": "MoE 5.2%.", "pollster_key": "echelon", "id": "ohgov-echelon-2026-10-23" }, { "pollster": "RedBox Research", "sponsor": "A Fight Worth Having (super PAC)", "field_start": "2026-10-20", "field_end": "2026-10-23", "published": "2026-10-23", "sample_size": 2998, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://afightworthhaving.com/polling/2026/ohio", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites A Fight Worth Having release)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (A Fight Worth Having, Democratic-aligned super PAC)", "pollster_key": "redbox-research", "id": "ohgov-redbox-research-2026-10-23" }, { "pollster": "Suffolk University", "sponsor": "USA Today Network Ohio", "field_start": "2026-10-21", "field_end": "2026-10-26", "published": "2026-10-28", "sample_size": 500, "population": "LV", "dem": 48.0, "rep": 44.0, "source_url": "https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/other-states/2026/10_28_2026_ohio_statewide_marginals.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Other = Libertarian Don Kissick 3.6% + write-in 0.4%; refused 0.8%.", "pollster_key": "suffolk", "id": "ohgov-suffolk-2026-10-26" }, { "pollster": "ActiVote", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-16", "field_end": "2026-10-31", "published": "2026-10-31", "sample_size": 400, "population": "LV", "dem": 50.8, "rep": 49.2, "source_url": "https://www.activote.net/polls/2026/oh-governor/2026-10-31/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "MoE 4.9%; no undecided reported.", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Forced-choice result (undecided voters pushed, totals near 100%); listed but excluded from first-choice averages", "pollster_key": "activote", "id": "ohgov-activote-2026-10-31" } ], "office": "governor", "page": "/races/governor/ohio-2026.html" }, { "id": "tx-governor", "state": "Texas", "code": "TXGOV", "race_name": "Texas Governor", "slug": "texas-2026", "candidates": { "dem": "Gina Hinojosa", "rep": "Greg Abbott" }, "polls": [ { "pollster": "Emerson College", "sponsor": "Nexstar Media", "field_start": "2026-01-10", "field_end": "2026-01-12", "published": "2026-01-12", "sample_size": 1165, "population": "RV", "dem": 42, "rep": 50, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Texas_gubernatorial_election#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Emerson College)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head. Hypothetical matchup before March 3 primaries", "pollster_key": "emerson", "id": "txgov-emerson-2026-01-12" }, { "pollster": "University of Houston Hobby School / YouGov", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-01-20", "field_end": "2026-01-31", "published": "2026-01-31", "sample_size": 1502, "population": "LV", "dem": 42, "rep": 49, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Texas_gubernatorial_election#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites University of Houston)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head.", "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "txgov-yougov-2026-01-31" }, { "pollster": "GBAO (D)", "sponsor": "Hinojosa campaign", "field_start": "2026-01-26", "field_end": "2026-02-03", "published": "2026-02-03", "sample_size": 1000, "population": "LV", "dem": 43, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Texas_gubernatorial_election#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites GBAO memo)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head.", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Hinojosa campaign internal)", "pollster_key": "gbao", "id": "txgov-gbao-2026-02-03" }, { "pollster": "University of Texas / Texas Politics Project", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-02-02", "field_end": "2026-02-16", "published": "2026-02-16", "sample_size": 1300, "population": "RV", "dem": 35, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Texas_gubernatorial_election#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites UT/Texas Politics Project)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head.", "pollster_key": "ut-tpp", "id": "txgov-ut-tpp-2026-02-16" }, { "pollster": "UT Tyler", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-02-13", "field_end": "2026-02-22", "published": "2026-02-22", "sample_size": 1117, "population": "RV", "dem": 41, "rep": 49, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Texas_gubernatorial_election#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites UT Tyler)", "matchup_note": "Pre-nomination head-to-head.", "pollster_key": "ut-tyler", "id": "txgov-ut-tyler-2026-02-22" }, { "pollster": "University of Texas / Texas Politics Project", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-04-10", "field_end": "2026-04-20", "published": "2026-04-20", "sample_size": 1200, "population": "RV", "dem": 38, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Texas_gubernatorial_election#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites UT/Texas Politics Project)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "ut-tpp", "id": "txgov-ut-tpp-2026-04-20" }, { "pollster": "Slingshot Strategies (D)", "sponsor": "Texas Public Opinion Research", "field_start": "2026-04-17", "field_end": "2026-04-20", "published": "2026-04-20", "sample_size": 1018, "population": "LV", "dem": 43, "rep": 48, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Texas_gubernatorial_election#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Texas Tribune-hosted TPOR release)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Texas Public Opinion Research, Democratic-aligned firm)", "pollster_key": "slingshot-strategies", "id": "txgov-slingshot-strategies-2026-04-20" }, { "pollster": "Texas Southern University / YouGov", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-04-22", "field_end": "2026-05-05", "published": "2026-05-05", "sample_size": 1223, "population": "LV", "dem": 43, "rep": 49, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Texas_gubernatorial_election#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Texas Southern University)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "txgov-yougov-2026-05-05" }, { "pollster": "Public Policy Polling (D)", "sponsor": "Lone Star Rising PAC", "field_start": "2026-05-22", "field_end": "2026-05-23", "published": "2026-05-23", "sample_size": 643, "population": "RV", "dem": 44, "rep": 48, "source_url": "https://static.politico.com/c0/7c/2c2db3c14c74946fa393d9e485cc/texas-gen-results-ppp-5-26-1.pdf", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Politico-hosted PPP results)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Lone Star Rising PAC, pro-Talarico)", "pollster_key": "ppp", "id": "txgov-ppp-2026-05-23" }, { "pollster": "Texas Public Opinion Research (D)", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-05-27", "field_end": "2026-05-28", "published": "2026-05-28", "sample_size": 1670, "population": "LV", "dem": 41, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Texas_gubernatorial_election#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites TPOR release)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Texas Public Opinion Research, Democratic-aligned firm)", "pollster_key": "tpor", "id": "txgov-tpor-2026-05-28" }, { "pollster": "Texas A&M University / ReconMR", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-06-01", "field_end": "2026-06-04", "published": "2026-06-04", "sample_size": 807, "population": "LV", "dem": 43, "rep": 49, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Texas_gubernatorial_election#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites ReconMR)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "reconmr", "id": "txgov-reconmr-2026-06-04" }, { "pollster": "Quantus Insights", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-06-03", "field_end": "2026-06-04", "published": "2026-06-04", "sample_size": 800, "population": "LV", "dem": 41, "rep": 49, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Texas_gubernatorial_election#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Quantus Insights)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "quantus", "id": "txgov-quantus-2026-06-04" }, { "pollster": "University of Texas / Texas Politics Project", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-06-05", "field_end": "2026-06-12", "published": "2026-06-12", "sample_size": 1200, "population": "RV", "dem": 40, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Texas_gubernatorial_election#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites UT/Texas Politics Project)", "matchup_note": "Wikipedia lists other 3%; pollcheck.co.uk lists Dixon/other 1% (not reconciled)", "pollster_key": "ut-tpp", "id": "txgov-ut-tpp-2026-06-12" }, { "pollster": "SoCal Strategies (R)", "sponsor": "Red Eagle Politics", "field_start": "2026-06-21", "field_end": "2026-06-21", "published": "2026-06-21", "sample_size": 800, "population": "LV", "dem": 42, "rep": 54, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Texas_gubernatorial_election#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites SoCal Strategies Substack)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Red Eagle Politics, conservative content creator)", "pollster_key": "socal-strategies", "id": "txgov-socal-strategies-2026-06-21" }, { "pollster": "New York Times / Siena", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-06-19", "field_end": "2026-06-27", "published": "2026-06-27", "sample_size": 656, "population": "LV", "dem": 44, "rep": 51, "source_url": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/06/30/polls/times-siena-texas-poll-crosstabs.html", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites NYT/Siena crosstabs)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "nyt-siena", "id": "txgov-nyt-siena-2026-06-27" }, { "pollster": "Texas Public Opinion Research (D)", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-07-15", "field_end": "2026-07-17", "published": "2026-07-17", "sample_size": 1048, "population": "LV", "dem": 42, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/governor/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites Texas Tribune)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Texas Public Opinion Research, Democratic-aligned firm)", "pollster_key": "tpor", "id": "txgov-tpor-2026-07-17" }, { "pollster": "Fox News / Beacon–Shaw", "sponsor": "Fox News", "field_start": "2026-07-23", "field_end": "2026-07-27", "published": "2026-07-27", "sample_size": 1006, "population": "RV", "dem": 49, "rep": 50, "source_url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-gop-divisions-shape-texas-senate-race", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "Only RV figures published (49-50 confirmed in Fox's October topline trend table); n=1,006 per Fox's Senate write-up of the same survey (aggregator lists 1,005)", "pollster_key": "fox", "id": "txgov-fox-2026-07-27" }, { "pollster": "Texas Southern University", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-07-27", "field_end": "2026-07-30", "published": "2026-07-30", "sample_size": 1200, "population": "LV", "dem": 43, "rep": 49, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/governor/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites TSU release)", "matchup_note": "other = Libertarian Dixon/other share as listed by aggregator", "pollster_key": "tsu", "id": "txgov-tsu-2026-07-30" }, { "pollster": "Texas A&M University / ReconMR / Siena", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-07-27", "field_end": "2026-07-30", "published": "2026-07-30", "sample_size": 619, "population": "LV", "dem": 45, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/governor/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites ReconMR release)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "nyt-siena", "id": "txgov-nyt-siena-2026-07-30" }, { "pollster": "Cygnal (R)", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-07-29", "field_end": "2026-07-31", "published": "2026-08-04", "sample_size": 800, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 49, "source_url": "https://www.cygn.al/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Abbott-Data-Center-Plan-Memo.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Memo to 'Interested Parties', no client named; memo reports Abbott 49% vs 46% for his opponent", "pollster_key": "cygnal", "id": "txgov-cygnal-2026-07-31" }, { "pollster": "GBAO (D)", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-08-04", "field_end": "2026-08-09", "published": "2026-08-09", "sample_size": 1000, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 49, "source_url": "https://x.com/XochitlHinojosa/status/2087874324963205404", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites post on X)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (GBAO, the Hinojosa campaign's pollster; released via an X post, sponsor not stated)", "pollster_key": "gbao", "id": "txgov-gbao-2026-08-09" }, { "pollster": "Emerson College", "sponsor": "Nexstar Media", "field_start": "2026-08-09", "field_end": "2026-08-10", "published": "2026-08-10", "sample_size": 1000, "population": "LV", "dem": 45, "rep": 49, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/governor/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites Emerson College release)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "emerson", "id": "txgov-emerson-2026-08-10" }, { "pollster": "University of Texas / Texas Politics Project", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-08-05", "field_end": "2026-08-13", "published": "2026-08-13", "sample_size": 1200, "population": "RV", "dem": 40, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/governor/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites UT/Texas Politics Project topline)", "matchup_note": "other = Libertarian Dixon/other share as listed by aggregator", "pollster_key": "ut-tpp", "id": "txgov-ut-tpp-2026-08-13" }, { "pollster": "Texas Public Opinion Research (D)", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-08-21", "field_end": "2026-08-24", "published": "2026-08-24", "sample_size": 1000, "population": "LV", "dem": 42, "rep": 49, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/governor/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites TPOR Substack)", "matchup_note": "other = Libertarian Dixon/other share as listed by aggregator", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Texas Public Opinion Research, Democratic-aligned firm)", "pollster_key": "tpor", "id": "txgov-tpor-2026-08-24" }, { "pollster": "Overton Insights (R)", "sponsor": "Texas Public Policy Foundation", "field_start": "2026-08-24", "field_end": "2026-08-26", "published": "2026-08-26", "sample_size": 1167, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 51, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/governor/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites Overton Insights toplines)", "matchup_note": "Forced-choice version listed by aggregator; alternate version 47-46 (Abbott-Hinojosa) not used", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Texas Public Policy Foundation, conservative think tank)", "pollster_key": "overton-insights", "id": "txgov-overton-insights-2026-08-26" }, { "pollster": "Fabrizio Ward (R) / Impact Research (D)", "sponsor": "AARP", "field_start": "2026-08-30", "field_end": "2026-09-01", "published": "2026-09-01", "sample_size": 895, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 49, "source_url": "https://www.aarp.org/press/releases/2026-09-10-new-aarp-texas-poll-highly-motivated-older-voters-could-shape-close-senate-governor-races/", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites AARP press release)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Little-known pollster whose original release we could not inspect; listed for context, not averaged", "pollster_key": "fabrizio-ward", "id": "txgov-fabrizio-ward-2026-09-01" }, { "pollster": "Univision / YouGov", "sponsor": "Univision News", "field_start": "2026-08-27", "field_end": "2026-09-04", "published": "2026-09-04", "sample_size": 1000, "population": "RV", "dem": 47, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/governor/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites Univision)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "txgov-yougov-2026-09-04" }, { "pollster": "Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy", "sponsor": "Telemundo", "field_start": "2026-09-08", "field_end": "2026-09-10", "published": "2026-09-10", "sample_size": 625, "population": "LV", "dem": 41, "rep": 48, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/governor/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites Mason-Dixon results (DocumentCloud))", "matchup_note": "other = Libertarian Dixon/other share as listed by aggregator", "pollster_key": "mason-dixon", "id": "txgov-mason-dixon-2026-09-10" }, { "pollster": "ReconMR / Siena", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-08", "field_end": "2026-09-11", "published": "2026-09-11", "sample_size": 614, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/governor/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites ReconMR release)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "nyt-siena", "id": "txgov-nyt-siena-2026-09-11" }, { "pollster": "SoCal Strategies", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-12", "field_end": "2026-09-13", "published": "2026-09-13", "sample_size": 649, "population": "LV", "dem": 44, "rep": 52, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/governor/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites SoCal Strategies Substack)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Little-known pollster whose original release we could not inspect; listed for context, not averaged", "pollster_key": "socal-strategies", "id": "txgov-socal-strategies-2026-09-13" }, { "pollster": "Emerson College", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-12", "field_end": "2026-09-14", "published": "2026-09-14", "sample_size": 1000, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 49, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/governor/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites Emerson College release)", "matchup_note": "other = Libertarian Dixon/other share as listed by aggregator", "pollster_key": "emerson", "id": "txgov-emerson-2026-09-14" }, { "pollster": "Texas Southern University", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-15", "field_end": "2026-09-19", "published": "2026-09-19", "sample_size": 1800, "population": "LV", "dem": 45, "rep": 49, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/governor/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites TSU release)", "matchup_note": "other = Libertarian Dixon/other share as listed by aggregator", "pollster_key": "tsu", "id": "txgov-tsu-2026-09-19" }, { "pollster": "Marist University", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-17", "field_end": "2026-09-20", "published": "2026-09-20", "sample_size": 1139, "population": "RV", "dem": 49, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/governor/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites Marist release)", "matchup_note": "Only RV figures listed by aggregator", "pollster_key": "marist", "id": "txgov-marist-2026-09-20" }, { "pollster": "Texas Public Opinion Research (D)", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-19", "field_end": "2026-09-22", "published": "2026-09-22", "sample_size": 1007, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 50, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/governor/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites TPOR Substack)", "matchup_note": "other = Libertarian Dixon/other share as listed by aggregator", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Texas Public Opinion Research, Democratic-aligned firm)", "pollster_key": "tpor", "id": "txgov-tpor-2026-09-22" }, { "pollster": "Stratus Intelligence (R)", "sponsor": "Texans for a Conservative Majority", "field_start": "2026-09-22", "field_end": "2026-09-24", "published": "2026-09-24", "sample_size": 865, "population": "LV", "dem": 45, "rep": 50, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/governor/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites Politico-hosted memo)", "matchup_note": "Sponsor per the Senate-race listing of the same Politico-hosted memo; ElectionTracker's Senate file lists n=856, governor listing n=865", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Texans for a Conservative Majority, Republican PAC)", "pollster_key": "stratus-intelligence", "id": "txgov-stratus-intelligence-2026-09-24" }, { "pollster": "Big Data Poll", "sponsor": "Public Polling Project", "field_start": "2026-09-24", "field_end": "2026-09-26", "published": "2026-09-26", "sample_size": 698, "population": "LV", "dem": 44, "rep": 49, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/governor/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites Big Data Poll blog)", "matchup_note": "Version used in aggregator average; alternate LV version 47-44 not used", "pollster_key": "big-data", "id": "txgov-big-data-2026-09-26" }, { "pollster": "UMass Lowell / YouGov", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-18", "field_end": "2026-09-28", "published": "2026-09-28", "sample_size": 850, "population": "LV", "dem": 44, "rep": 48, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/governor/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites UMass Lowell release)", "matchup_note": "other = Libertarian Dixon/other share as listed by aggregator", "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "txgov-yougov-2026-09-28" }, { "pollster": "Guidant Polling & Strategy (R)", "sponsor": "Public First Action", "field_start": "2026-09-20", "field_end": "2026-09-28", "published": "2026-09-28", "sample_size": 800, "population": "LV", "dem": 44, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/governor/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites NYT-hosted memo)", "matchup_note": "other = Libertarian Dixon/other share as listed by aggregator", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Public First Action, political advocacy group)", "pollster_key": "guidant-polling-strategy", "id": "txgov-guidant-polling-strategy-2026-09-28" }, { "pollster": "Fox News / Beacon–Shaw", "sponsor": "Fox News", "field_start": "2026-09-24", "field_end": "2026-09-28", "published": "2026-10-01", "sample_size": 881, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 52, "source_url": "https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2026/10/fox_september-24-28-2026_texas_topline_october-1-release.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "LV n=881 per Fox topline (aggregator lists 1,005); RV version (n=1,203) 49-50 Hinojosa-Abbott not used", "pollster_key": "fox", "id": "txgov-fox-2026-09-28" }, { "pollster": "New York Times / Siena", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-22", "field_end": "2026-10-01", "published": "2026-10-01", "sample_size": 615, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/10/03/polls/times-siena-texas-poll-toplines.html", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites NYT/Siena toplines)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "nyt-siena", "id": "txgov-nyt-siena-2026-10-01" }, { "pollster": "University of Texas / Texas Politics Project", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-25", "field_end": "2026-10-05", "published": "2026-10-05", "sample_size": 861, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 48, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/governor/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites UT/Texas Politics Project blog)", "matchup_note": "other = Libertarian Dixon/other share as listed by aggregator", "pollster_key": "ut-tpp", "id": "txgov-ut-tpp-2026-10-05" }, { "pollster": "YouGov", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-28", "field_end": "2026-10-05", "published": "2026-10-05", "sample_size": 3625, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 47, "source_url": "https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_tx_20260921_lv.pdf", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites YouGov document)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "txgov-yougov-2026-10-05" }, { "pollster": "GBAO (D)", "sponsor": "Hinojosa campaign", "field_start": "2026-10-05", "field_end": "2026-10-08", "published": "2026-10-08", "sample_size": 800, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 45, "source_url": "https://ginafortexas.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/TX-Gov-Poll-Memo-101226.pdf", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites Hinojosa campaign memo)", "matchup_note": "other = Libertarian Dixon/other share as listed by aggregator", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Hinojosa campaign internal)", "pollster_key": "gbao", "id": "txgov-gbao-2026-10-08" }, { "pollster": "ReconMR / Siena", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-05", "field_end": "2026-10-08", "published": "2026-10-08", "sample_size": 617, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 48, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/governor/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites ReconMR release)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "nyt-siena", "id": "txgov-nyt-siena-2026-10-08" }, { "pollster": "Marist University", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-08", "field_end": "2026-10-11", "published": "2026-10-11", "sample_size": null, "population": "LV", "dem": 45, "rep": 49, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/governor/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites Marist release)", "matchup_note": "LV n not published (1,196 is the RV sample); RV version 48-47 (Abbott-Hinojosa) not used", "pollster_key": "marist", "id": "txgov-marist-2026-10-11" }, { "pollster": "GS Strategy Group (R) / New River Strategies (D)", "sponsor": "Cook Political Report", "field_start": "2026-10-09", "field_end": "2026-10-13", "published": "2026-10-13", "sample_size": 934, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 48, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/governor/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites Cook Political Report)", "matchup_note": "other = Libertarian Dixon/other share as listed by aggregator", "pollster_key": "cook-gs", "id": "txgov-cook-gs-2026-10-13" }, { "pollster": "ActiVote", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-30", "field_end": "2026-10-14", "published": "2026-10-14", "sample_size": 400, "population": "LV", "dem": 49.1, "rep": 50.9, "source_url": "https://www.activote.net/polls/2026/tx-governor/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Field start per pollcheck.co.uk; ActiVote page gives only publish date", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Forced-choice result (undecided voters pushed, totals near 100%); listed but excluded from first-choice averages", "pollster_key": "activote", "id": "txgov-activote-2026-10-14" }, { "pollster": "University of Houston Hobby School", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-10", "field_end": "2026-10-14", "published": "2026-10-14", "sample_size": 2000, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 49, "source_url": "https://www.uh.edu/hobby/texas2026/index.php", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites UH Hobby School)", "matchup_note": "other = Libertarian Dixon/other share as listed by aggregator", "pollster_key": "uh-hobby", "id": "txgov-uh-hobby-2026-10-14" }, { "pollster": "CBS News / YouGov", "sponsor": "CBS News", "field_start": "2026-10-08", "field_end": "2026-10-16", "published": "2026-10-16", "sample_size": null, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 52, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/governor/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites CBS News)", "matchup_note": "Aggregator lists n=1,492 LV, but CBS reports 1,492 as the registered-voter total; LV n not confirmed", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Forced-choice result (undecided voters pushed, totals near 100%); listed but excluded from first-choice averages", "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "txgov-yougov-2026-10-16" }, { "pollster": "Texas Public Opinion Research (D)", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-15", "field_end": "2026-10-18", "published": "2026-10-18", "sample_size": 969, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 51, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/governor/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites TPOR Substack)", "matchup_note": "other = Libertarian Dixon/other share as listed by aggregator", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (Texas Public Opinion Research, Democratic-aligned firm)", "pollster_key": "tpor", "id": "txgov-tpor-2026-10-18" }, { "pollster": "Pollfinity Research", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-15", "field_end": "2026-10-18", "published": "2026-10-18", "sample_size": 278, "population": "RV", "dem": 45, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/governor/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites Pollfinity release)", "matchup_note": "other = Libertarian Dixon/other share as listed by aggregator", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Little-known pollster whose original release we could not inspect; listed for context, not averaged", "pollster_key": "pollfinity-research", "id": "txgov-pollfinity-research-2026-10-18" }, { "pollster": "Fox News / Beacon–Shaw", "sponsor": "Fox News", "field_start": "2026-10-15", "field_end": "2026-10-19", "published": "2026-10-21", "sample_size": 1398, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 52, "source_url": "https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2026/10/fox_october-15-19-2026_texas_topline_october-21-release.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Other <0.5%; RV version (n=2,011) 49-50 Hinojosa-Abbott not used", "pollster_key": "fox", "id": "txgov-fox-2026-10-19" }, { "pollster": "Emerson College", "sponsor": "Nexstar Media", "field_start": "2026-10-17", "field_end": "2026-10-19", "published": "2026-10-22", "sample_size": 1000, "population": "LV", "dem": 45, "rep": 49, "source_url": "https://emersoncollegepolling.com/texas-2026-poll-toss-up/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Initial ballot without leaners: Libertarian Pat Dixon 1%, undecided 4%; with leaners 51-47-2 (Abbott-Hinojosa-Dixon) not used", "pollster_key": "emerson", "id": "txgov-emerson-2026-10-19" }, { "pollster": "Verasight / VoteHub", "sponsor": "VoteHub", "field_start": "2026-10-01", "field_end": "2026-10-20", "published": "2026-10-20", "sample_size": 509, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 48, "source_url": "https://cdn.votehub.com/pdfs/VoteHub_Verasight_Oct_2026_Texas_Report_D8A925D0.pdf", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites VoteHub report)", "matchup_note": "LV version used in aggregator average; alternate versions not used", "pollster_key": "votehub", "id": "txgov-votehub-2026-10-20" }, { "pollster": "Univision / YouGov", "sponsor": "Univision News", "field_start": "2026-10-13", "field_end": "2026-10-21", "published": "2026-10-21", "sample_size": 1000, "population": "RV", "dem": 46, "rep": 48, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/governor/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites Univision)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "txgov-yougov-2026-10-21" }, { "pollster": "ActiVote", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-17", "field_end": "2026-10-21", "published": "2026-10-21", "sample_size": 400, "population": "LV", "dem": 47.5, "rep": 52.5, "source_url": "https://www.activote.net/polls/2026/tx-governor/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Field dates per pollcheck.co.uk (which rounds to 53-48); ActiVote page gives only publish date", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Forced-choice result (undecided voters pushed, totals near 100%); listed but excluded from first-choice averages", "pollster_key": "activote", "id": "txgov-activote-2026-10-21" }, { "pollster": "Texas Southern University", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-21", "field_end": "2026-10-25", "published": "2026-10-25", "sample_size": 2000, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 50, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/governor/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites TSU release via WFAA)", "matchup_note": "other = Libertarian Dixon/other share as listed by aggregator", "pollster_key": "tsu", "id": "txgov-tsu-2026-10-25" }, { "pollster": "YouGov Blue (D)", "sponsor": "254 Labs", "field_start": "2026-10-21", "field_end": "2026-10-26", "published": "2026-10-26", "sample_size": 1000, "population": "RV", "dem": 49, "rep": 46, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/governor/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites 254 Labs release)", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Partisan or campaign-sponsored release (254 Labs / YouGov Blue, Democratic-aligned)", "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "txgov-yougov-2026-10-26" }, { "pollster": "CNN / SSRS", "sponsor": "CNN", "field_start": "2026-10-20", "field_end": "2026-10-27", "published": "2026-10-29", "sample_size": 923, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 48, "source_url": "https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/28856724-cnn-poll-conducted-by-ssrs-texas-october/", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites CNN/SSRS document; original could not be opened)", "matchup_note": null, "pollster_key": "cnn-ssrs", "id": "txgov-cnn-ssrs-2026-10-27" }, { "pollster": "Data for Progress", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-23", "field_end": "2026-10-27", "published": "2026-10-30", "sample_size": 712, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 48, "source_url": "https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/10/30/democratic-senate-candidates-lead-in-maine-michigan-and-texas", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Field window Oct 23-27 is for DFP's 3-state batch; n=712 LV is the aggregator's figure for the same Texas survey (Senate listing); not in pollcheck's governor table", "pollster_key": "dfp", "id": "txgov-dfp-2026-10-27" }, { "pollster": "Quantus Insights", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-26", "field_end": "2026-10-28", "published": "2026-10-28", "sample_size": 1221, "population": "LV", "dem": 46, "rep": 51, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/governor/texas", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites Quantus Insights release)", "matchup_note": "other = Libertarian Dixon/other share as listed by aggregator; Quantus release page could not be opened (server error)", "pollster_key": "quantus", "id": "txgov-quantus-2026-10-28" }, { "pollster": "ActiVote", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-23", "field_end": "2026-10-29", "published": "2026-10-29", "sample_size": 400, "population": "LV", "dem": 47.9, "rep": 52.1, "source_url": "https://www.activote.net/polls/2026/tx-governor/", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": null, "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Forced-choice result (undecided voters pushed, totals near 100%); listed but excluded from first-choice averages", "pollster_key": "activote", "id": "txgov-activote-2026-10-29" } ], "office": "governor", "page": "/races/governor/texas-2026.html" }, { "id": "me-governor", "state": "Maine", "code": "MEGOV", "race_name": "Maine Governor", "slug": "maine-2026", "candidates": { "dem": "Hannah Pingree", "rep": "Bobby Charles" }, "polls": [ { "pollster": "New York Times / Siena", "sponsor": "Portland Press Herald", "field_start": "2026-06-19", "field_end": "2026-06-26", "published": "2026-06-26", "sample_size": 608, "population": "LV", "dem": 50, "rep": 36, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Maine_gubernatorial_election#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites NYT/Portland Press Herald/Siena crosstabs)", "matchup_note": "Bennett (I) 8%; two-way version 55-40 not used", "pollster_key": "nyt-siena", "id": "megov-nyt-siena-2026-06-26" }, { "pollster": "Fox News / Beacon–Shaw", "sponsor": "Fox News", "field_start": "2026-06-23", "field_end": "2026-06-27", "published": "2026-06-27", "sample_size": 1003, "population": "RV", "dem": 53, "rep": 42, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Maine_gubernatorial_election#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Fox News)", "matchup_note": "Bennett not offered", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Two-way Pingree-Charles question without independent Bennett, not the three-way ballot", "pollster_key": "fox", "id": "megov-fox-2026-06-27" }, { "pollster": "University of New Hampshire Survey Center", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-07-15", "field_end": "2026-07-20", "published": "2026-07-20", "sample_size": 1178, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 35, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Maine_gubernatorial_election#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites UNH Survey Center)", "matchup_note": "Bennett (I) 6%, other 1% (other = both)", "pollster_key": "unh", "id": "megov-unh-2026-07-20" }, { "pollster": "Fox News / Beacon–Shaw", "sponsor": "Fox News", "field_start": "2026-08-06", "field_end": "2026-08-10", "published": "2026-08-10", "sample_size": 1000, "population": "RV", "dem": 49, "rep": 38, "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Maine_gubernatorial_election#Polling", "source_kind": "Wikipedia polling table (cites Fox News)", "matchup_note": "Bennett (I) 9%; RV only", "pollster_key": "fox", "id": "megov-fox-2026-08-10" }, { "pollster": "CNN / SSRS", "sponsor": "CNN", "field_start": "2026-08-31", "field_end": "2026-09-06", "published": "2026-09-06", "sample_size": 880, "population": null, "dem": 52, "rep": 39, "source_url": "https://www.wabi.tv/2026/09/09/senate-race-maine-is-neck-and-neck-cnn-poll-finds-reasons-support-vary/", "source_kind": "news report", "matchup_note": "WABI says the poll did not include Bennett and surveyed 880 registered voters; aggregator lists 880 LV", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Two-way Pingree-Charles question without independent Bennett, not the three-way ballot", "pollster_key": "cnn-ssrs", "id": "megov-cnn-ssrs-2026-09-06" }, { "pollster": "YouGov", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-02", "field_end": "2026-09-08", "published": "2026-09-08", "sample_size": 1335, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 36, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/governor/maine", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites YouGov document)", "matchup_note": "Bennett (I) 2% as listed by aggregator; RV version 44-35-3 not used", "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "megov-yougov-2026-09-08" }, { "pollster": "UMass Lowell / YouGov", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-08-28", "field_end": "2026-09-14", "published": "2026-09-24", "sample_size": 650, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 38, "source_url": "https://www.uml.edu/news/press-releases/2026/09242026-maine-poll.aspx", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Release names no Bennett share: other 1%, undecided 10%, won't vote 2%", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Two-way Pingree-Charles question without independent Bennett, not the three-way ballot", "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "megov-yougov-2026-09-14" }, { "pollster": "University of New Hampshire Survey Center", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-17", "field_end": "2026-09-21", "published": "2026-09-21", "sample_size": 1312, "population": "LV", "dem": 48, "rep": 40, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/governor/maine", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites UNH Survey Center)", "matchup_note": "Bennett (I) 5%", "pollster_key": "unh", "id": "megov-unh-2026-09-21" }, { "pollster": "New York Times / Siena", "sponsor": "Portland Press Herald", "field_start": "2026-09-15", "field_end": "2026-09-22", "published": "2026-09-22", "sample_size": 619, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 34, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/governor/maine", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites NYT toplines)", "matchup_note": "Bennett (I) 8%; two-way version 53-39 not used", "pollster_key": "nyt-siena", "id": "megov-nyt-siena-2026-09-22" }, { "pollster": "Fabrizio Ward (R) / Impact Research (D)", "sponsor": "AARP", "field_start": "2026-09-20", "field_end": "2026-09-22", "published": "2026-09-22", "sample_size": 982, "population": "LV", "dem": 52, "rep": 39, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/governor/maine", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites AARP report)", "matchup_note": "Bennett (I) 6%", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Little-known pollster whose original release we could not inspect; listed for context, not averaged", "pollster_key": "fabrizio-ward", "id": "megov-fabrizio-ward-2026-09-22" }, { "pollster": "co/efficient", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-09-28", "field_end": "2026-09-30", "published": "2026-09-30", "sample_size": 1240, "population": "LV", "dem": 47, "rep": 38, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/governor/maine", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites co/efficient)", "matchup_note": "Bennett (I) 6%; Republican-leaning firm, self-released", "pollster_key": "coefficient", "id": "megov-coefficient-2026-09-30" }, { "pollster": "CBS News / YouGov", "sponsor": "CBS News", "field_start": "2026-09-23", "field_end": "2026-10-01", "published": "2026-10-01", "sample_size": 1133, "population": "LV", "dem": 56, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/governor/maine", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites CBS News)", "matchup_note": "Aggregator lists no Bennett share and 56-44 sums to 100", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Two-way Pingree-Charles question without independent Bennett, not the three-way ballot", "pollster_key": "yougov", "id": "megov-yougov-2026-10-01" }, { "pollster": "Marist University", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-01", "field_end": "2026-10-04", "published": "2026-10-04", "sample_size": 1505, "population": "RV", "dem": 52, "rep": 40, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/governor/maine", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites Marist release)", "matchup_note": "Bennett (I) 6%; only RV figures listed", "pollster_key": "marist", "id": "megov-marist-2026-10-04" }, { "pollster": "Washington Post / George Mason", "sponsor": "Washington Post", "field_start": "2026-09-30", "field_end": "2026-10-05", "published": "2026-10-05", "sample_size": 800, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 36, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/governor/maine", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites Washington Post document)", "matchup_note": "Bennett (I) 11%", "pollster_key": "wapo-gmu", "id": "megov-wapo-gmu-2026-10-05" }, { "pollster": "Suffolk University", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-08", "field_end": "2026-10-11", "published": "2026-10-11", "sample_size": 500, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 38, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/governor/maine", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites Suffolk release)", "matchup_note": "Bennett (I) 8%", "pollster_key": "suffolk", "id": "megov-suffolk-2026-10-11" }, { "pollster": "Fox News / Beacon–Shaw", "sponsor": "Fox News", "field_start": "2026-10-16", "field_end": "2026-10-20", "published": "2026-10-22", "sample_size": 1514, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 39, "source_url": "https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2026/10/fox_october-16-20-2026_maine_topline_october-22-release.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Bennett (I) 9%, other <0.5%; RV (n=1,689) identical", "pollster_key": "fox", "id": "megov-fox-2026-10-20" }, { "pollster": "Echelon Insights", "sponsor": "NetChoice", "field_start": "2026-10-16", "field_end": "2026-10-23", "published": "2026-10-23", "sample_size": 413, "population": "LV", "dem": 51, "rep": 38, "source_url": "https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/governor/maine", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites NetChoice topline)", "matchup_note": "Bennett (I) 7%; sponsor is a tech-industry trade group", "pollster_key": "echelon", "id": "megov-echelon-2026-10-23" }, { "pollster": "Marist University", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-22", "field_end": "2026-10-25", "published": "2026-10-25", "sample_size": null, "population": "LV", "dem": 44, "rep": 44, "source_url": "https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/Marist-Poll_Maine-NOS-and-Tables_202610261228-3_43sjl2.pdf", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Bennett (I) 6%, another party 1% (other = both); LV n not published (1,449 RV total); RV version 51-40-7 not used", "pollster_key": "marist", "id": "megov-marist-2026-10-25" }, { "pollster": "CNN / SSRS", "sponsor": "CNN", "field_start": "2026-10-20", "field_end": "2026-10-26", "published": "2026-10-26", "sample_size": 783, "population": "LV", "dem": 53, "rep": 39, "source_url": "https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/28856725-cnn-poll-conducted-by-ssrs-maine-october/", "source_kind": "Aggregator table (pollcheck.co.uk; cites CNN/SSRS document; original could not be opened)", "matchup_note": "Aggregator lists no Bennett share; CNN's September Maine poll did not include Bennett", "included": false, "exclusion_reason": "Two-way Pingree-Charles question without independent Bennett, not the three-way ballot", "pollster_key": "cnn-ssrs", "id": "megov-cnn-ssrs-2026-10-26" }, { "pollster": "Data for Progress", "sponsor": null, "field_start": "2026-10-23", "field_end": "2026-10-27", "published": "2026-10-30", "sample_size": 652, "population": "LV", "dem": 49, "rep": 37, "source_url": "https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2026/10/30/democratic-senate-candidates-lead-in-maine-michigan-and-texas", "source_kind": "pollster original release", "matchup_note": "Bennett (I) 7%; n per pollcheck.co.uk (aggregator omits Charles's 37%)", "pollster_key": "dfp", "id": "megov-dfp-2026-10-27" } ], "office": "governor", "page": "/races/governor/maine-2026.html", "editorial_note": "Three-way race: independent Rick Bennett's share is listed in each poll's note, not charted." } ] }