Alaska’s Ranked-Choice Math: Two Dan Sullivans, One Heikes, and Peltola’s Path

Alaska is the only state that pairs a top-four primary with a ranked-choice general election, and in 2026 the method may matter as much as the candidates. All candidates run on a single top-four primary ballot. The four highest finishers advance to a November general election decided by ranked-choice voting. In August, former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) took 49.5% of the Senate primary vote to Sen. Dan Sullivan’s 41.4%. November’s count will run through several rounds.

How the count works

Voters rank as many candidates as they like. In the first round, only first choices count. If no one has a majority of the ballots still in play, the last-place candidate is eliminated, and each of those ballots moves to its next-ranked candidate who is still in the race. The process repeats until someone has a majority. A ballot that ranks no remaining candidate is “exhausted” and drops out of the count, which shrinks the number a candidate needs to win.

Alaska adopted the system through a 2020 ballot measure. Peltola is its best-known beneficiary. She won the 2022 special House election with about 40% of first-choice votes, after enough third-place Republican Nick Begich’s voters ranked her second or ranked no one else. A 2024 measure to repeal the system failed by fewer than 1,000 votes. Peltola lost her House seat narrowly that same year.

November’s Senate ballot

Two details make this ballot unusual. First, there will be two Dan Sullivans on it. Daniel J. Sullivan of Petersburg, a Republican whom state party leaders tried to keep off the ballot, finished third and said after the primary that he is staying in. Republicans have called him a “Decoy Dan” who could pull votes from the senator. Second, the fourth-place finisher, Democrat David Leslie, withdrew at the August 31 deadline, citing pressure from Democratic leadership. That moved fifth-place Republican Gerald Heikes onto the ballot. The November lineup is one Democrat and three Republicans.

Where the polls put it

Start with AARP’s first round. Peltola has 46%. Sullivan has 41%, and the two minor Republicans have 7% between them. If every one of those voters ranked the senator second, he would reach 48% before undecided voters are counted, two points ahead of Peltola. AARP’s own ranked-choice tabulation of the same poll instead ended at Peltola 53, Sullivan 47.

The distance between those two outcomes is the race. It comes down to three things:

• Transfer rates. What share of Daniel J. Sullivan and Heikes voters rank the incumbent next, rank Peltola, or rank no one?
• Exhausted ballots. Every minor-Republican ballot that ranks no one else leaves the count and lowers the majority threshold. That helps whoever leads the first round.
• The first-round gap. Peltola’s eight-point primary lead gives her room to absorb transfers. A smaller lead, like Trafalgar’s one-point Sullivan edge, makes the minor Republicans decisive.

Forecasters are split roughly the same way. Cook and Sabato rate the race a Toss-Up. Inside Elections moved it from Lean R to Tilt R on September 10. Money is pouring in on both sides: the Senate Leadership Fund has committed $17 million for Sullivan and Senate Majority PAC $12 million for Peltola. The candidates have debated twice, on energy in August and on fisheries in Kodiak on September 12.

The governor’s race: the same math, reversed

Alaska’s open governor’s race runs on the same system, and the parties have swapped positions. Gov. Mike Dunleavy is term-limited. In the primary, Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, a former state House member, finished first with 22.5%. Fellow Democrat Tom Begich was less than two points behind. On August 28, ahead of the August 31 deadline, Begich announced he would withdraw, saying he realized “there was really no path forward.”

His exit consolidated the Democratic vote behind Kreiss-Tomkins and moved a third Republican, Treg Taylor, into the top four alongside Bernadette Wilson and Dave Bronson. There is one wrinkle: Alaska Public Media reported that the Alaska Public Offices Commission recommended against certifying Taylor’s candidacy, and that Republican Click Bishop would advance if Taylor withdrew.

With three Republicans splitting first-choice votes, Kreiss-Tomkins led the first round with 40%. He was ahead 55–45 after ranked-choice tabulation, as reported by Cook. Cook moved the race from Likely R to Lean R on September 10, then to Toss-Up on September 17. Sabato has also moved it to Toss-Up. Inside Elections rates it Lean R.

What to watch

• Early voting begins October 19.
• Party guidance on rankings. Whether Republicans push voters to rank all three GOP Senate candidates, and whether the two minor Republicans ask their voters to rank the senator second.
• The count takes time. Alaska accepts absentee ballots that arrive after Election Day and runs the ranked-choice tabulation once they are in. In recent cycles the final tabulation came roughly two weeks after Election Day. If the Senate majority comes down to Alaska, the country may wait.