2026 Midterm Elections

The marquee Senate race just blew up. Graham Platner formally withdrew from Maine’s U.S. Senate race on July 10, ending a campaign that had won the June 9 Democratic primary in a 77.7% landslide. His exit followed a sexual assault allegation from a former romantic partner, first reported by Politico and CNN in early July — an allegation Platner denies as “categorically false.” Support collapsed within days: Warren, Khanna, Gallego, and even Bernie Sanders — Platner’s political model — called for him to step aside, and Schumer and the DSCC warned the national party would not invest in Maine if he stayed on the ballot.

Because Platner filed before the July 13 statutory deadline, his name comes off the ballot and Maine Democrats may replace him. The state party is holding a nominating convention of roughly 600 delegates and must name a new nominee by July 27. Candidates had until July 15 to declare and gather signatures from at least 8 of Maine’s 16 counties. Declared or reported contenders include former Maine CDC director Nirav Shah, Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, former Senate President Troy Jackson (all three fresh off gubernatorial primary losses), Maine Beer Company co-founder Dan Kleban, and former CD-2 candidates Jordan Wood and Paige Loud.

Sen. Susan Collins, seeking a sixth term with ~$10M cash on hand, now waits to learn her opponent. Maine voted for Harris by 7 in 2024 and the seat remains central to any Democratic path to a Senate majority — but the party starts over with 99 days to Election Day. Ranked-choice voting in the general adds a further wildcard.

South Carolina Governor (R) Runoff — June 23: AG Alan Wilson routed Trump’s original pick, Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, roughly two-to-one (~66–34). Evette had finished first on June 9 with Trump’s sole endorsement, but Wilson consolidated the eliminated field — Mace, Norman, and Reddy all broke his way — and Trump hedged with a co-endorsement of Wilson on June 19, letting him claim a win either way. Evette conceded and endorsed Wilson. General set: Wilson (R) vs. state Rep. Jermaine Johnson (D), who won his primary outright June 9. South Carolina hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since 2003 — Safe R.

SC Attorney General (R) Runoff: Upstate Solicitor David Stumbo defeated state Sen. Stephen Goldfinch ~55–45 for the seat Wilson vacated; he faces Democrat Richard Hricik.

SC-01 (Mace’s vacated seat): Charleston County Councilwoman Jenny Costa Honeycutt won the GOP runoff over state Rep. Mark Smith, 54–46, and retired Navy Vice Adm. Nancy Lacore — fired by Pete Hegseth in 2025, with $1.6M raised — took the Dem runoff over Mac Deford, 52–48. General set: Honeycutt (R) vs. Lacore (D) in the state’s most competitive district (R+6); notably, Trump stayed out of this primary entirely, and the seat is guaranteed to remain represented by a woman. In SC-02, Air Force vet Zyon Khalifa won the Dem runoff 54–46 and challenges Rep. Joe Wilson.

Louisiana Senate Runoffs — June 27: Rep. Julia Letlow (Trump-endorsed) defeated state Treasurer John Fleming 56.9%–43.1% to claim the GOP nomination for the seat Bill Cassidy was ousted from in May — completing Trump’s revenge campaign against the last of the seven GOP senators who voted to convict him after Jan. 6. On the Dem side, Tensas Parish farmer Jamie Davis won with more than three-quarters of the vote. General: Letlow vs. Davis. Safe R — Letlow is all but certain to join the Senate.

The Trump scoreboard shifts: after GOP voters rejected his picks in the Iowa and Georgia governor primaries in June, Letlow’s decisive win handed Trump a needed rebound — while the SC co-endorsement maneuver shows the White House adapting to protect the streak.

By July 27: Maine Democrats’ nominating convention picks Platner’s replacement against Susan Collins.
July 28: South Dakota GOP governor runoff — Toby Doeden vs. Gov. Larry Rhoden, after Doeden led round one 31–25 and Rep. Dusty Johnson was eliminated.
August 4: CA-01 special election (LaMalfa vacancy, R+17); primaries in Michigan (open Senate + three-way governor chaos), Arizona (GOP field vs. Hobbs), and Kansas.
August 11: Minnesota (open Senate) and Wisconsin (open governor) primaries.
August 18: Alaska top-four Senate primary (Sullivan vs. Peltola), Florida primaries, and the CA-14 special election.
August 25: Oklahoma Dem Senate runoff (Thomas vs. Priest).
September 8: New Hampshire primaries — Sununu vs. Brown on the GOP side for the open Senate seat.

Georgia Governor (R) Runoff: In a major upset, billionaire healthcare executive Rick Jackson narrowly defeated Trump-endorsed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones — another Trump endorsement loss. Jackson overcame a late Trump endorsement for Jones, joining Iowa (Feenstra) as a June race where Trump’s pick faltered — though Trump recovered ground later in the month with Letlow’s Louisiana win and a hedged co-endorsement of the winner in South Carolina. General election set: Jackson (R) vs. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) in one of November’s marquee governor races.

Georgia Senate (R) Runoff: Rep. Mike Collins won handily over former football coach Derek Dooley. Trump gave Collins a last-minute endorsement. General election set: Collins (R) vs. Sen. Jon Ossoff (D). Cook rates this Lean D — Ossoff has $25M+ cash on hand and enters untouched while Collins limped through a bruising primary season.

Georgia Redistricting — SCRAPPED. The Georgia legislature convened its special session on June 17 — the day after the runoffs — but both chambers immediately refused to redraw maps. House Speaker Jon Burns and Senate Pro Tem Larry Walker sent letters to Gov. Kemp declining to take up redistricting, citing pending litigation in other states. Protesters chanted “Black voters matter!” inside the Capitol. Kemp expressed disappointment but said the decision belongs to the legislature. Georgia will use existing maps for both 2026 and 2028 — for now. The session pivoted to tax relief and ratifying the gas tax suspension instead.

Alabama Senate (R) Runoff: Trump-endorsed Rep. Barry Moore defeated former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson, securing the GOP nomination for the seat vacated by Tommy Tuberville (running for governor). Safe R in November. A separate Dem runoff was also held.

Oklahoma Senate: Rep. Kevin Hern (Trump-endorsed) won the GOP primary with 67.6% — a dominant showing for the seat vacated by DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin. On the Dem side, no candidate reached 50%; N’Kiyla Thomas and Jim Priest advance to an August 25 runoff. Deep red Oklahoma — Safe R.

Oklahoma Governor: The large GOP field triggered a crowded primary to succeed term-limited Gov. Kevin Stitt. Trump-endorsed Mike Mazzei and AG Gentner Drummond led in polling. The winner will face Dem Nick Coffey in Safe R territory.

OK-01 (Hern’s vacated seat): Crowded GOP primary for the Tulsa-area seat. Trump endorsed pastor Jackson Lahmeyer. Runoff likely if no one clears 50%. Safe R.

CA-14 Special Primary (Jun 16): Top-two primary for the seat vacated by Eric Swalwell. Wahab (D) and Hernandez were the expected leaders heading in. D+20 district — safe Dem hold. Special election set for August 18.

Maine Senate: Graham Platner (D) won the Democratic primary in a landslide, 77.7% to Gov. Janet Mills’ 16.7% (Costello 5.6%). He has since withdrawn from the race (July 10) following a sexual assault allegation he denies — see the breaking card above. Maine Democrats will name a replacement nominee to face Susan Collins by July 27.

Maine Governor (RCV) — DECIDED: After five days of ranked-choice tabulation, Hannah Pingree won the Democratic nomination on June 19, overcoming Nirav Shah’s first-round lead (26.8% to her 23.3%) on the strength of backup-choice transfers from the Bellows and Jackson cross-endorsement alliance. She finished with 111,750 votes — the most of any Democratic nominee for governor in Maine history, on record Dem primary turnout. On the GOP side, Bobby Charles won his RCV tabulation with 60%. Independent Rick Bennett, a former Republican, is also on the November ballot. General: Pingree (D) vs. Charles (R) vs. Bennett (I). ME CD-2 (Dem): Matt Dunlap won the RCV tabulation with 52%.

South Carolina Governor (R): Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette (~29%) and AG Alan Wilson (~26%) advanced to the June 23 runoff after no candidate cleared 50% — Wilson won the runoff decisively (see Late-June Runoff Results above). Reps. Nancy Mace and Ralph Norman were eliminated June 9 — Mace conceded and endorsed Wilson, writing “I chose to stand on principle and stand against the Epstein cover-up.” On the Dem side, state Rep. Jermaine Johnson won (~60%). Cook rates this Safe R in November.

South Carolina Senate: Lindsey Graham (R) won his primary easily (~57.7%), fending off Mark Lynch (28.1%). Trump endorsed Graham days before the vote. Pediatrician Annie Andrews (D) won with ~61.1% — Andrews previously lost to Mace in SC-01 in 2022. General: Graham vs. Andrews.

SC-01 (Mace’s vacated seat): Both runoffs were decided June 23 — Honeycutt (R) defeated Smith 54–46, and Lacore (D) beat Deford 52–48 (see Late-June Runoff Results above). General: Honeycutt vs. Lacore in the R+6 district.

SC-05 (Norman’s vacated seat): Dem primary: Dittmer led with 54.3%. GOP: state Sen. Wes Climer ran unopposed.

Nevada: AG Aaron Ford (D) was effectively uncontested. General set: Ford vs. Gov. Joe Lombardo (R). In NV-02 (open, Amodei retiring), Trump-endorsed David Flippo faced James Settelmeyer (backed by Amodei and Lombardo).

Iowa Senate: Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) cruised to the GOP nomination (50+ pt margin over Jim Carlin). Paralympian state Rep. Josh Turek (D) defeated Zach Wahls, 62.6%–37.4%. One of the cycle’s marquee Senate races is now set.

Iowa Governor: Zach Lahn (R) edged Trump-endorsed Rep. Randy Feenstra by less than 1 pt (37.8%–37.0%) — Feenstra conceded. Lahn faces Dem Auditor Rob Sand, who ran uncontested.

Montana Senate: Trump-endorsed former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme (R) dominated at 76.2%. Air Force vet Alani Bankhead (D) won (43.7%) despite $1M+ in GOP super PAC interference in the Dem primary. First open Montana Senate seat since 1976.

California Governor — SET: Steve Hilton (R) and Xavier Becerra (D) advanced from the top-two primary — a rare R-vs-D general in deep blue California. Tom Steyer finished third and faded. Trump endorsed Hilton late.

NJ-07: Former Navy helicopter pilot Rebecca Bennett (D) won 46% in a 4-way race, overcoming GOP-linked super PAC attack ads. She’ll face Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R), who has been absent from Congress since March (100+ missed votes, citing a “personal medical issue”). A top House battleground.

NJ-12: Dr. Adam Hamawy (D) — progressive, Bernie-endorsed, born in Egypt — won 28.1% in a crowded 13-way race. Faces Greg Mele (R) to succeed retiring Bonnie Watson Coleman.

South Dakota Governor: No candidate hit the 35% runoff threshold. Toby Doeden (31%) and Gov. Larry Rhoden (25%) advance to a July 28 runoff. Rep. Dusty Johnson fell to third (23%). Rhoden replaced Kristi Noem when she joined Trump’s cabinet.

New Mexico Governor: Former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland (D) won the Dem nomination — could become the first Native American woman governor. She faces former Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull (R, 47.0%).

CA House: CA-06: Rep. Kiley* (R) advances with Stansfield (D). CA-07: Rep. Matsui* (D) advances with Vang (D) or Wooden (D). CA-14 (vacant): Wahab (D) and Hernandez lead. CA-22: Rep. Valadao* (R, 44.5%) advances with Bains.

Iowa CD-2: Hinson’s vacated seat — Mitchell (R, 61.4%) vs James (D, 57.3%) set for November.

Texas GOP Senate: Ken Paxton crushed four-term incumbent John Cornyn, 62.8% to 37.2% (536,356 to 318,159 votes) — a 25.6-point blowout that wasn’t remotely close. Trump’s May 19 endorsement supercharged a result that exceeded every public poll. Cornyn, the longest-serving Texas senator in state history, becomes the highest-profile victim of Trump’s party purge. Paxton now faces Dem nominee James Talarico in November — and Paxton’s baggage (securities fraud indictment settled 2024, 2023 impeachment acquittal, pending divorce) could make Texas genuinely competitive. Early general election surveys showed Talarico within single digits of both Republicans; expect a rating reassessment.

Texas GOP Attorney General: Middleton defeated Roy, 55.8% to 44.2% (469,864 to 372,289).

House Runoff Results (May 26):
• TX Dem District 14: Bartie 50.2% vs Davis 49.8% — razor-thin margin, recount possible.
• TX Dem District 18: Menefee won 68.6% to Green’s 31.4%.
• TX GOP District 19: Sell won 65.5% to Enriquez’s 34.5%.
• TX Dem District 33: Allred 54.9% vs Johnson 45.1%.
• TX GOP District 35: De La Cruz 54.5% vs Lujan 45.5%.
• TX Dem District 35: Garcia 59.2% vs Galindo 40.8%.

Full analysis →

Georgia GOP Governor: Lt. Gov. Burt Jones (38.7%) and billionaire Rick Jackson (33.2%) advanced to June 16 runoff — Jackson won (see June 16 results above). Carr and Raffensperger eliminated. Over $100M in ad spending. Dem Governor: Keisha Lance Bottoms won outright at 57.5%.

Georgia GOP Senate: Rep. Mike Collins (41.2%) vs Derek Dooley (28.6%) — Collins won the June 16 runoff (see above). Trump gave last-minute endorsement.

GA-13: Former state Rep. Jasmine Clark won Dem primary at 58.7%.

Kentucky KY-04: Thomas Massie is out. Trump-endorsed Ed Gallrein won 54.9% to 45.1% — the most expensive House primary in U.S. history ($32.6M).

Kentucky Senate: Andy Barr (R) crushed Daniel Cameron 60.4% to 30.9%. Dem: Charles Booker won 46.8% to McGrath’s 35.8%.

Alabama Senate: Trump-endorsed Rep. Barry Moore (40%) and former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson (26%) advanced to June 16 runoff — Moore won (see above). AG Steve Marshall eliminated (25%). Tuberville dominated the governor’s race (85.8%).

Full results & analysis →

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R), a two-term incumbent, was knocked out of Louisiana’s May 16 primary — the last of the seven Republican senators who voted to convict Trump after Jan. 6 to face electoral consequences. In his concession, Cassidy took a veiled swipe at Trump: “You don’t pout, you don’t whine. You don’t claim the election was stolen.”

June 27 runoff: Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow defeated state Treasurer John Fleming 56.9%–43.1%. In her victory speech she called Trump “the greatest president this country has ever had.” Letlow, a former university administrator who came to Congress in 2021 after her husband Luke died of Covid weeks after winning the seat, now faces Democratic farmer Jamie Davis, who won his runoff with more than 75% of the vote. The seat remains Safe R — and Letlow’s win gave Trump a rebound after GOP voters rejected his picks in the Iowa and Georgia governor races.

Twelve states have now actively redrawn or are redrawing congressional maps mid-decade. Cook moved 12 House races on May 8 due to redistricting in FL, VA, and TN — 11 of those moves favored Republicans. On May 13, Cook moved MO-05 from Safe D to Safe R after Missouri’s Supreme Court locked in the GOP gerrymander targeting Rep. Emanuel Cleaver.

Georgia — SCRAPPED. The legislature convened its special session on June 17 — the day after the runoffs — and immediately refused to redraw maps. House Speaker Jon Burns and Senate Pro Tem Larry Walker sent letters to Gov. Kemp declining to take up congressional or legislative redistricting, citing pending litigation in other states and the need for “ample opportunity” for public input. Protesters chanted “Black voters matter!” inside the Capitol. Kemp expressed disappointment but said the decision belongs to the legislature. The session pivoted to tax relief and ratifying the gas tax suspension. Georgia will use existing maps for 2026 — and potentially 2028 — unless the legislature reconvenes on the issue.

South Carolina — DEAD. On May 27, the SC Senate killed the Trump-backed redistricting bill. Twelve Republicans crossed party lines to block cloture, ending the effort to eliminate Rep. James Clyburn’s SC-06. The House had passed a 7-0 Republican map, but early voting for the June 9 primary had already begun on May 26, and several GOP senators said it was too late to change maps. Gov. McMaster expressed disappointment but the session is over. SC redistricting could be revisited for 2028, but it is dead for 2026.

Virginia — OVER. The U.S. Supreme Court rejected Virginia Democrats’ emergency application on May 16, leaving the SCOVA ruling intact. The voter-approved redistricting amendment was struck down 4–3 by the Virginia Supreme Court on May 8, which held the General Assembly violated constitutional procedures. Virginia will use the existing 2021 court-drawn maps for 2026. Cook’s May 8 rating moves (VA-01 Likely D → Lean R, VA-02 Lean D → Toss-Up, VA-05 Likely D → Likely R, VA-06 Lean D → Safe R) remain in effect.

Florida’s new map (projected 24R-4D) is signed but still being litigated. SCOTUS gutted the VRA in Louisiana v. Callais (6-3, Apr 29). Tennessee signed a map splitting Rep. Steve Cohen’s Memphis district into three. Louisiana has paused its House primaries to pursue redistricting. Inside Elections moved NJ-07 and PA-10 from Tilt R to Toss-Up, VA-07 from Lean D to Likely D, and WA-03 from Tilt D to Toss-Up on May 21. GOP-led states now hold a ~17-seat redistricting advantage vs. ~6 for Democrats.

*Includes 1 Independent caucusing with GOP. 5 seats currently vacant (CA-01, CA-14, TX-23, FL-20, GA-13). The president’s party has lost House seats in 18 of the last 20 midterms. Democrats have overperformed in every special election since January 2025 — including a Michigan state Senate pickup on May 5. Generic ballot: Dems +6 (FiftyPlusOne, May 23); Data for Progress had Dems +8 (May 18). As of May 2026, 56 House members had announced their retirement — 36 Republicans vs. 22 Democrats — the second-most House retirements in a single cycle since 1992. Including 14 Senate retirements, the total congressional departure count of 71 is the highest this century. Cook House summary (May 13): 184 Solid D, 188 Solid R, 23 Likely/Lean D, 22 Likely/Lean R. Polymarket traders gave Democrats an 81–83% chance of taking the House and Republicans a 56% chance of holding the Senate as of mid-June.

Trump’s net approval sits at −17 (Silver Bulletin, Jul 15) — roughly 39–40% approve, ~57% disapprove. That’s a modest rebound from his second-term low of around −20 in mid-to-late May and his best reading since mid-April, though part of the uptick is driven by outlier polls; the influential pollsters (Quinnipiac, TIPP, Echelon, Independent Center) cluster right around −16 to −17. It’s also still several points worse than the −13 he held before launching attacks on Iran. Among independents, approval remains in the low-to-mid 30s. His weakest issue remains inflation and the cost of living — just 26% give him high marks on it (I&I/TIPP, July).

Gas prices have reversed course and started rising again: after an eight-week slide from the May 21 peak of $4.55, the national average bottomed out near $3.79 in early July, then climbed back to $3.86 (AAA, Jul 14) as the U.S.–Iran ceasefire’s future turned uncertain and WTI crude pushed back above $73/barrel. Prices are still up more than 20% year-over-year, and Hawaii, California, and Washington remain above $5/gal. If ceasefire volatility lingers along the Strait of Hormuz, expect further increases heading into the fall.

Generic ballot: Dems +6 (FiftyPlusOne, May 23); Data for Progress had Dems +8 (May 18). Polymarket traders gave Democrats an 81–83% chance of taking the House and Republicans a 56% chance of keeping the Senate as of mid-June — the latter now clouded by Maine’s nominee vacancy. The July NYT/Siena battleground series found Trump underwater in all six states with key Democratic Senate targets (AK, IA, ME, NC, OH, TX), including a 47–47 tie in the Texas Senate race. The wildcard for both parties: whether the fragile Iran ceasefire holds through the fall.

Nebraska Senate: Pete Ricketts (R) defeated four primary challengers. Cindy Burbank won the Dem nomination, but the Nebraska Democratic Party has endorsed independent Dan Osborn for November. Osborn lost to Sen. Fischer by only 6 pts in 2024 in a state Trump won by 20+.

NE-02 (Open — Top Dem Target): Denise Powell (D) won a razor-thin primary over State Sen. John Cavanaugh (~2 pts). Powell, a political organizer and first Latina to file for federal office in Nebraska, will face Trump-endorsed Brinker Harding (R). The “blue dot” district voted for Harris in 2024 and Biden in 2020. The primary drew $5.6M in outside spending — the most expensive Dem primary in the district’s history.

West Virginia Senate: Shelley Moore Capito (R) fended off five primary challengers. Rachel Anderson won the Dem nomination. Safe R (Trump +39 in 2024).

Ohio: Sherrod Brown (D) and Jon Husted (R) won their Senate primaries — setting up the cycle’s marquee Senate race. Vivek Ramaswamy (R) and Amy Acton (D) won governor primaries. Derek Merrin (R) won OH-9 and will face Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D).

Indiana: Trump-backed challengers defeated 5 of 6 targeted GOP state senators who had blocked Trump’s redistricting push — a dramatic display of Trump’s grip on the party. Only Greg Goode (R) survived. Sen. Jim Banks declared it a “big night for MAGA.” The results may revive Indiana redistricting efforts ahead of November.

The Ohio Coalition to End Qualified Immunity needed 413,488 valid signatures from at least 44 of Ohio’s 88 counties by July 1, 2026 — the statutory deadline of 125 days before the general election — to place its constitutional amendment on the November ballot. The amendment would strip qualified immunity, sovereign immunity, and prosecutorial immunity from government officials who violate Ohioans’ constitutional rights.

As of July 15, no signature submission has been publicly reported, and no statewide measures have yet been certified for Ohio’s 2026 ballot. Barring official confirmation from the Secretary of State, the amendment appears unlikely to be before voters this November. The campaign’s road here was extraordinary regardless: AG Dave Yost rejected the petition eight times before a federal court ruled he had exceeded his authority and the U.S. Supreme Court declined to intervene in April 2025 — a rare grassroots win over a sitting attorney general. Ohio petitions may circulate indefinitely, so the effort could target a future ballot. National polling shows 63% support for ending QI (Cato/YouGov); an Ohio-specific Campaign Zero poll found 53% support elimination outright and 87% believe officers should face consequences for rights violations. We’ll update this card when the outcome is confirmed. Full analysis →

Democrat Chedrick Greene won the Michigan state Senate District 35 special election, giving Democrats another overperformance data point. The win keeps Dems in control of the Michigan state Senate — a critical backstop heading into a gubernatorial transition year.

Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R) died January 6. R+17 district — safe Republican hold. Special election is August 4 — less than three weeks away — following the June 2 primary. One of five current House vacancies reducing the GOP’s functional majority margin.

Rep. David Scott (D), the first Black chairman of the House Agriculture Committee, died at age 80 after 23 years in Congress. Special election date still TBD. May 19 primary (final): Former state Rep. Jasmine Clark won the Dem primary for the full term at 58.7%, well ahead of state Sen. Emanuel Jones (7.8%). D+26 district — safe Democratic hold.

Rep. Tony Gonzales (R) resigned amid a sexual misconduct scandal. Gov. Abbott has still not called a special election — now three months after the vacancy. Texas law gives the governor broad discretion; Abbott is under no deadline. The next uniform election date under Texas law is November 3. Dem Katy Padilla Stout has demanded he act immediately. The likely matchup is Stout vs. Republican Brandon Herrera (YouTuber/gun manufacturer). R+7 district under new maps, but Dem special election overperformances make this competitive. The delay benefits the GOP by preserving their slim House majority margin.

Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) resigned the same day as Gonzales, also facing sexual misconduct allegations and a pending expulsion vote. D+20 district — safe Democratic hold. June 16 top-two primary completed. Wahab (D) and Hernandez advanced. Special election set for August 18.

Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D) resigned April 21, minutes before the House Ethics Committee was set to recommend expulsion. Found guilty of 25 ethics violations; faces a 15-count federal indictment for allegedly stealing $5M in FEMA disaster relief. D+12 district — safe Democratic hold. Gov. DeSantis to call special election.

Democrat Analilia Mejia won the NJ-11 special election on April 16, filling the seat vacated by Gov. Mikie Sherrill. Progressive platform (abolish ICE, universal health care). Mejia faces a June primary for the full term.

The Supreme Court (6-3) struck down Louisiana’s majority-Black congressional district as an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, severely weakening Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. The ruling could put at least 15 House seats held by Black members at risk nationwide. Justice Kagan wrote in dissent that the majority rendered Section 2 “all but a dead letter.” The cascade: Tennessee signed a map splitting Rep. Steve Cohen’s Memphis district (May 7). Missouri’s Supreme Court locked in its gerrymander; Cook moved MO-05 Safe D → Safe R (May 13). The SC House passed a 7-0 R map targeting Rep. Clyburn, but on May 27 the SC Senate killed the bill — 12 Republicans crossed party lines, citing early voting already underway. The U.S. Supreme Court rejected Virginia Democrats’ emergency appeal on May 16, ending their bid to use new Dem-drawn maps in 2026. On June 2, SCOTUS allowed Alabama to use its new GOP-friendly congressional map that eliminated a majority-Black district, dealing another blow to VRA protections. Alabama’s May 19 primary was the first election under the post-Callais redrawn map. Georgia’s legislature scrapped planned redistricting on June 17 — House Speaker Burns and Senate Pro Tem Walker refused to redraw maps during a special session, citing pending litigation. Louisiana has paused its House primaries to pursue redistricting. Cook moved 12 House races on May 8 — 11 favoring Republicans. Inside Elections moved NJ-07, PA-10, VA-07, and WA-03 on May 21.

The Iran war, gas prices ($3.86/gal and climbing again after an eight-week slide), and Trump’s still-underwater approval are dominating political ad spending. The Texas Senate primary alone consumed $125M+ (AdImpact) — the most expensive Senate primary in U.S. history. The Georgia governor’s race saw $100M+ in primary ad spending — third-most expensive gubernatorial primary on record. GOP candidates in competitive districts continue to run on Trump alignment, while Democrats lean into economic pain and war opposition.