It wasn’t close. It wasn’t even competitive.
Ken Paxton obliterated four-term incumbent John Cornyn in the Texas GOP Senate runoff on Monday, winning 62.8% to 37.2% — a 25.6-point margin that exceeded every public poll, every prediction model, and every private survey leaked to the press. The man who was impeached by his own party’s state House in 2023 and settled a securities fraud indictment in 2024 just ended the career of the second-most powerful Republican in the United States Senate.
Cornyn, who has served in the Senate since 2002 — longer than any Texas senator in state history — conceded within an hour of polls closing. His defeat makes him the highest-profile victim of Donald Trump’s ongoing purge of the Republican establishment, a campaign that has now claimed Bill Cassidy in Louisiana, Thomas Massie in Kentucky, and five Indiana state senators in the span of three weeks.
Trump’s Endorsement Was the Kill Shot
When Trump endorsed Paxton on May 19 — exactly one week before the runoff — calling him a “true MAGA Warrior” and saying Cornyn “was not supportive of me when times were tough,” the race effectively ended. Senate GOP leaders had spent months lobbying Trump to back Cornyn, arguing that Paxton’s legal baggage made him a liability in a general election environment this hostile to Republicans.
Trump didn’t care. And the base followed him.
The final University of Houston Hobby School poll, conducted May 5, had Paxton leading Cornyn just 48% to 45% — within the margin of error. The actual margin was nearly 26 points. Either the polling was catastrophically wrong, or Trump’s endorsement moved the race by 20+ points in seven days. Both explanations are extraordinary.
What Happened to Cornyn?
Cornyn’s loss was a convergence of forces that have been building since 2021. He voted for the bipartisan infrastructure bill. He led the gun safety negotiations after Uvalde. He worked with Democrats on the Electoral Count Reform Act. Each of these was defensible on substance — and each was a death sentence in a closed Republican primary in 2026.
The Wesley Hunt factor proved decisive. When Trump-endorsed Rep. Wesley Hunt was eliminated in the March primary (finishing third), the question became: where would his voters go? The UH Hobby poll found that among Hunt’s primary voters, 54% broke for Paxton vs. just 35% for Cornyn. The MAGA lane consolidated perfectly behind Paxton.
The $125M+ in total ad spending — making this the most expensive Senate primary in American history — didn’t save Cornyn. His $45M war chest, his endorsements from virtually every GOP senator, his decades of seniority and committee assignments — none of it mattered against a single Trump truth social post.
The General Election: Paxton vs. Talarico
The November matchup is now set: Ken Paxton (R) vs. James Talarico (D). And this is where the result gets genuinely interesting for the national map.
Paxton carries baggage that no amount of Trump rallies can erase. A securities fraud indictment (settled in 2024 after nearly a decade of delays). An impeachment by the Texas House in 2023, with 60 Republicans voting to remove him from office as Attorney General. A pending divorce. Federal whistleblower lawsuits from former aides who accused him of bribery and abuse of office.
Early general election polling showed Talarico within single digits of both Paxton and Cornyn. With Paxton as the nominee instead of the more broadly palatable Cornyn, the Democratic path in Texas narrows from “reach” to “competitive.” Expect Cook, Sabato, and Inside Elections to reassess their Lean R rating in the coming days.
Talarico, a 33-year-old state representative from Round Rock, won the Democratic primary uncontested and has spent months building a general election operation while Republicans burned $125M attacking each other. He’s running on education, healthcare, and economic populism — a profile designed to win crossover Cornyn voters who are now politically homeless.
In a national environment where Trump sits at 31–39% approval, gas is $4.55/gallon, and the Iran war remains deeply unpopular, Texas is closer to flipping than at any point since 2018. Paxton’s nomination is the best thing that could have happened to Democrats’ Senate map.
Texas Attorney General: Middleton Wins
In the other statewide runoff, Middleton defeated Roy 55.8% to 44.2% in the GOP Attorney General race, with 469,864 votes to Roy’s 372,289. The race to succeed Paxton as AG drew less national attention than the Senate blockbuster but will determine the direction of one of the most powerful state AG offices in the country.
House Runoff Results
Six congressional district runoffs were also decided on May 26. The results:
| Race | Winner | % | Runner-Up | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TX Dem Dist. 14 | Bartie | 50.2% | Davis | 49.8% |
| TX Dem Dist. 18 | Menefee | 68.6% | Green | 31.4% |
| TX GOP Dist. 19 | Sell | 65.5% | Enriquez | 34.5% |
| TX Dem Dist. 33 | Allred | 54.9% | Johnson | 45.1% |
| TX GOP Dist. 35 | De La Cruz | 54.5% | Lujan | 45.5% |
| TX Dem Dist. 35 | Garcia | 59.2% | Galindo | 40.8% |
The tightest race of the night was TX Dem District 14, where Bartie edged Davis by just 0.4 points (4,341 to 4,299 votes with 58% reporting) — a margin narrow enough that a recount is possible depending on where outstanding ballots land.
Menefee’s dominant 68.6% win in TX-18 was the most decisive House result of the night. In TX Dem District 33, Allred defeated Johnson by nearly 10 points, a comfortable margin in what had been expected to be a competitive runoff.
The Bigger Picture
Tonight’s results cap a devastating three-week stretch for the Republican establishment. Since May 5:
Bill Cassidy — ousted in Louisiana (May 16). The last of the seven Republican senators who voted to convict Trump after January 6.
Thomas Massie — defeated in Kentucky (May 19). The libertarian icon couldn’t survive a Trump-endorsed challenger and $32.6M in primary spending.
Five Indiana state senators — purged by Trump-backed challengers (May 5) for blocking his redistricting push.
John Cornyn — destroyed in Texas (May 26). The former Senate Majority Whip, the longest-serving Texas senator, humiliated by 26 points.
The pattern is unmistakable. There is no safe harbor in the Republican Party for anyone who has ever crossed, questioned, or insufficiently celebrated Donald Trump. The purge is complete.
The question for November is whether this ideological purity comes at an electoral cost. In Louisiana and Kentucky, it doesn’t matter — those seats are safe regardless. But in Texas, with a polarizing nominee carrying active legal baggage into a hostile national environment, Republicans may have just traded electability for loyalty.
James Talarico is counting on it.
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