Gas at $4.55 and Climbing: The Iran War’s Electoral Shockwave, Three Months In
Prices have risen 62% since January. The Strait of Hormuz is still disrupted. US stockpiles have fallen for 13 consecutive weeks. And summer driving season hasn’t even started.
Three months ago, the United States launched Operation Epic Fury. Three months later, the most tangible domestic consequence is not geopolitical — it’s the number on the sign at every gas station in America. The national average hit $4.55 per gallon on May 21 (AAA), the highest of 2026 and the most expensive gas Americans have faced since August 2022. In California, drivers are paying $6.13. In Washington state, $5.78. Even in the cheapest markets — Indiana, Mississippi, Georgia — prices hover above $4.00.
The trajectory is unambiguous: prices have risen every week since the war began. The annual average for 2026 is already $3.54 — and that includes three months of pre-war prices in the low $2s that are dragging the average down. The real-time cost of driving in America right now is the highest it has been in four years.
Why Prices Keep Rising
The Strait of Hormuz — which handles roughly 20% of global oil flows — remains effectively disrupted. Energy exports from the region have been at a standstill since early March. The IEA has called it “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.” An estimated 14 million barrels per day have been taken offline, with cumulative losses exceeding 850 million barrels in the first two months.
US gasoline stockpiles have fallen for 13 consecutive weeks as of early May, despite refineries operating near full capacity and drawing on SPR crude to sustain output. Gasoline futures briefly touched $3.75/gallon on May 18 — a four-year high — before pulling back slightly as Trump hinted at a possible negotiated resolution. But energy analysts are skeptical: even with a ceasefire, infrastructure damage in the Gulf would take months to repair, and prices may not return to pre-war levels.
The Electoral Math
Gas prices are the single most visible economic indicator in American politics. Unlike CPI reports or GDP figures, gas prices are displayed in 4-foot-tall numbers on every street corner. Voters see them every day. They feel them every week. And they blame the president.
Trump’s net approval on inflation and cost of living has fallen to −41.8 (Silver Bulletin) — the worst issue-specific rating of his career. The March CPI showed a 21.2% monthly increase in gasoline prices — the largest since the Consumer Price Index was first published in 1967. Overall inflation hit 3.4% in March, with PCE inflation reaching 4.5% in Q1, raising stagflation concerns.
The political damage is compounding. Every week that gas prices rise, another cohort of voters who gave Trump the benefit of the doubt moves into the “disapprove” column. The FiftyPlusOne aggregate shows Trump’s approval tracking almost perfectly with the inverse of gas prices since February — a correlation that political scientists call the “pump price penalty.”
What’s Coming
Summer driving season begins Memorial Day weekend. Historically, gas demand surges 5–10% between May and August, pushing prices higher. In a normal year, that means a 15–30 cent seasonal increase. In a year where supply is already constrained by the largest disruption in oil market history, the ceiling is unknown.
ING forecasts Brent crude at $104/barrel for Q2 and $92/barrel for Q4 in their base case. Their downside scenario — prolonged Strait disruption through the summer — projects $140+ crude and $6+ national average gas. Wall Street has modeled $200/barrel scenarios. Amazon, FedEx, and USPS have all imposed fuel surcharges.
If gas prices are at $4.55 in May and the seasonal pattern holds, $5.00+ by July is plausible. $5.50+ by August is not out of the question. For a president at 31% approval, with a war he started and gas prices he cannot control, the summer of 2026 may be the most politically toxic stretch any incumbent has faced since Jimmy Carter’s 1979–80 energy crisis.
The pump doesn’t lie. And right now, it’s screaming.