Trump’s Approval Hits a Term Low Five Weeks Out: The National Environment in Seven Numbers

Midterm elections are, more often than not, a verdict on the president. The president’s party has lost House seats in 18 of the last 20 midterms, and the size of the loss tends to track his standing and the public’s mood about prices. Five weeks before November 3, here is where the numbers that shape that verdict stand.

1. −22.4: Trump’s net approval

The Silver Bulletin average put Trump’s net approval at −22.4 on September 28, the low point of his second term. Individual September polls tell the same story:

The Journal described its 37% as the lowest approval recorded for any president heading into a midterm in its polling going back to 1990. Reuters/Ipsos called its 32% the lowest of Trump’s political career.

2. D+8: the generic ballot

The generic congressional ballot asks which party voters plan to support for Congress. On September 29, FiftyPlusOne’s average stood at Democrats 50.8%, Republicans 42.9%, and the Silver Bulletin’s at D+8.1. That is up from about D+5 in mid-August.

• Emerson (Sept. 21–22): Democrats 53, Republicans 42.
• Reuters/Ipsos (Sept. 9–12): Democrats 44, Republicans 37.
• Economist/YouGov (Sept. 25–28): Democrats +16 among likely voters, the high outlier.

For scale: in 2018, Democrats won the national House vote by about 8.6 points and gained roughly 40 seats. Averages this far out can still move, and midterm polls have missed in both directions before (why polls miss).

3. $4.46: the price at the pump

AAA’s national average for regular gas was $4.456 on September 29. That is about 37 cents above a month earlier ($4.08) and $1.32 above a year ago ($3.14). On September 24 it hit $4.48, which AAA called the highest national average it has recorded for this time of year. If September’s prices hold through the end of the month, AAA said, the monthly average will pass the previous September record of $3.83, set in 2023. The average has been flat to slightly lower this week.

4. 3.4%: inflation

The August Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% for the month and 3.4% from a year earlier. Energy was up 16.3% over the year and gasoline 27.4%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, was a more modest 2.4%. The September report is due October 14, about three weeks before Election Day.

The job market is holding up better. August payrolls grew by 162,000, well above expectations, and unemployment held at 4.1%. The September jobs report comes out October 2.

5. 3.75–4.00%: the Fed raises rates

On September 16 the Federal Reserve voted unanimously to raise its benchmark rate by a quarter point, to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%. It was the Fed’s first increase since July 2023. Higher rates mean pricier mortgages, car loans and credit-card balances in the final weeks of a campaign already dominated by cost of living. The next Fed meeting is October 27–28, one week before Election Day.

6. 34%: support for the Iran strikes

Only 34% of Americans approved of the U.S. strikes on Iran in Reuters/Ipsos polling released September 21. There is no ceasefire. The U.S. and Iran traded strikes in early September, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains sharply curtailed. On September 26, Trump rejected a seven-day plan from Iran’s foreign minister to reopen the strait in exchange for lifting the U.S. blockade and sanctions, saying Iran is “losing so badly.” The war, the price of oil and the price of gas are now one story for many voters.

7. $5,000: the Republican closing offer

At the first-ever Republican midterm convention, held in Dallas on September 9, Trump promised a $5,000 “Trump dividend” to every adult citizen if Republicans keep both chambers of Congress. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated the cost at more than $1.2 trillion. In Reuters/Ipsos polling, 63% disapproved of the idea.

What is not on the list

A shutdown. Congress passed a stopgap funding bill in early September, 370–48 in the House, that runs through December 11. There will be no pre-election shutdown fight. Mail-voting rules. On September 14 the Supreme Court blocked the administration’s U.S. Postal Service mail-ballot rules from taking effect for 2026, so this fall’s mail voting proceeds under existing procedures.

Forecasters have followed the numbers. Cook Political Report moved 15 House races toward Democrats on September 25. On September 29, prediction markets priced Democratic control of the House at about 92% and the Senate at about 63%. The backdrop does not decide individual races, and Republicans are outspending Democrats in most Senate battlegrounds. But it sets the terrain every candidate is running on.