Beyond the Toss-Ups: The Four Senate Races That Could Break the Map Open
The Senate majority will probably be decided among the seven Toss-Ups. But four races just outside that group shifted in September, in the ratings or the polls, and they are where a wave could turn into a landslide, or where Democrats could lose a seat they assumed was safe.
The math of the Senate majority runs through seven Toss-Ups. We cover those here. But a wave, or a failed one, shows up first in the races just beyond them. In September, raters moved two Republican-held seats outside the Toss-Up column toward Democrats, Kansas and South Carolina. In Nebraska, independent Dan Osborn led one poll. And Minnesota, a Democratic-held open seat, produced a tied poll. These are the races to watch if you want to know whether November is a close finish or a rout, in either direction.
| Race | Cook | Sabato | Inside Elections |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas · Marshall (R) vs. Hamilton (D) | Lean R | Leans R | Likely R |
| South Carolina · Graham (R) vs. Andrews (D) | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R |
| Nebraska · Ricketts (R) vs. Osborn (I) | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R |
| Minnesota · Flanagan (D) vs. Tafoya (R) | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D |
Kansas: the biggest mover
Sen. Roger Marshall (R) vs. Adam Hamilton (D)
Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932. In September, all three major raters moved the race toward Democrats. Hamilton, founding pastor of the largest United Methodist congregation in the country, won an 11-candidate primary in August and led Emerson’s September poll 45–43. Vice President JD Vance has campaigned for Marshall.
The warning sign for Republicans came in August. On the same primary ballot, Kansas voters rejected a Republican-backed constitutional amendment on the state Supreme Court, 62% to 38%. In 2022, Kansas voters also rejected an abortion amendment by a wide margin. Kansas has a record of Republican-leaning voters breaking from the party on specific questions.
South Carolina: an appointed senator without a cushion
Sen. Darline Graham (R) vs. Annie Andrews (D) · special election
Graham was appointed after her brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham, died in July. She then won an August 25 runoff over Rep. Ralph Norman, 52.4% to 47.6%, with Trump’s help. Her opponent, Charleston pediatrician Annie Andrews, has run close in the first general-election polls. Both show large undecided shares in a state Trump carried by about 18 points and where Democrats have not won a Senate race since 1998. More on the runoff.
Nebraska: the independent lane
Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) vs. Dan Osborn (I)
Osborn, a union leader, lost to Sen. Deb Fischer by about 6 points in 2024 in a state Trump carried by about 20. He is running again with no Democratic nominee on the ballot. SurveyUSA’s September poll had him ahead 46–42.
September also brought two leaked recordings. Politico reported one in which Osborn called the border wall a symbol of racism. In another, reported by CNN, he criticized Trump voters. He acknowledged that the second recording sounded like him. The two candidates met at the Nebraska State Fair on September 1, in what was billed as the only debate.
Minnesota: the Democrats’ soft spot
Peggy Flanagan (D) vs. Michele Tafoya (R) · open
Sen. Tina Smith is retiring. Minnesota has not elected a Republican senator since 2002, and Harris carried it by about four points in 2024. All three raters call it Likely D. But the two September polls are much closer than that rating suggests, with large shares of voters undecided. Flanagan, the lieutenant governor, beat Rep. Angie Craig by about 19 points in the August primary. Tafoya is a former sports broadcaster. Minnesota voters have been able to vote in person since September 18.
If Republicans are looking for an offensive opportunity beyond Michigan and New Hampshire, this is it. A Democratic loss here would raise the number of Republican seats Democrats need to flip from four to five.
Two long shots with a twist
Florida (special): Sen. Ashley Moody (R) vs. state Rep. Angie Nixon (D). Cook rates it Solid R, and Stetson had Moody up 51–40. But a St. Pete Polls survey released September 17 had it tied 45–45. Trump carried Florida by 13 points in 2024.
Montana (open): a three-way race. Republican Kurt Alme faces independent Seth Bodnar, the former University of Montana president, and Democrat Alani Bankhead, who has refused to withdraw despite pressure from some Democrats to consolidate behind Bodnar. With the anti-Alme vote split, Alme led American Pulse 45–26–19 and Quantus 44–24–23. Montana’s ballot shows what happens when a party does not step aside for an independent, as Nebraska Democrats did for Osborn.
None of these four is likely to decide the majority on its own. The seven Toss-Ups will do that. But they show how far the environment reaches. If Hamilton, Andrews or Osborn is within a couple of points on November 3, Democrats are probably having a very good night. If Flanagan is, Republicans are.
Sources
- Axios: Cook shifts Georgia, Kansas and South Carolina (Sept. 23)
- Raw Story: Sabato moves Kansas (Sept. 22)
- Roll Call: Inside Elections rating changes (Sept. 10)
- Nebraska Examiner: Ricketts–Osborn State Fair debate (Sept. 1)
- CNN via KEYT: Osborn responds to leaked audio (Sept. 16)
- Montana Public Radio: three-way Senate race set (Aug. 12)
- Cook Political Report: Senate race ratings