Trump at -20: The Approval Freefall That Could Flip Congress
As of today, Donald Trump's net approval rating in the Silver Bulletin average has hit -20.1, a new second-term low. One week ago it was -19.1. The week before that, -18.6. The decline is not only persistent; it is accelerating. And the numbers on specific issues are even worse: net approval of Trump's handling of inflation and the cost of living is now -41.8. On the economy broadly, -27.4. On the Iran war, 65% of voters disapprove, and fewer than a quarter say the conflict has been worth its cost.
These are not numbers that sustain a governing majority. They are numbers that historically precede the kind of wave election that flips chambers, ends careers, and reshapes the political landscape for a generation.
The Trajectory
When Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, 50% of Americans approved of his handling of the economy. By Liberation Day in April 2025, when he imposed global tariffs, that had dropped to 40%. By January 2026, it was in the mid-30s. The Iran war, which began on February 28, 2026, accelerated a decline that was already well underway.
Pew Research conducted a survey of 5,103 adults in late April and found Trump's overall approval at 34%, down from 47% in late January 2025. That represents a net swing of 26 points in roughly 15 months, one of the steepest sustained declines in modern presidential polling.
The CBS News/YouGov poll paints an even grimmer picture from Trump's perspective: 65% say his policies are making the economy worse in the short term. Among Republicans, 37% now disapprove of his handling of inflation, up 11 points since March alone. The erosion within his own party, while still modest, is exactly the kind of base fracture that historically presages midterm catastrophe.
What History Says
Presidential approval is the single strongest predictor of midterm outcomes. Presidents with net negative approval consistently lose seats. The question is how many. George W. Bush's approval was around 38% heading into the 2006 midterms; Republicans lost 30 House seats and 6 Senate seats. Barack Obama was at roughly 44% before the 2010 wave; Democrats lost 63 House seats. Trump himself was at approximately 42% before the 2018 midterms; Republicans lost 40 House seats.
At 37% approval and -20 net, Trump is in significantly worse shape than any of those predecessors. The question is no longer whether Republicans will lose seats. It is whether the losses will be contained enough to preserve at least one chamber, or whether 2026 will produce a unified Democratic government for the first time since 2021.
The Independent Collapse
The most dangerous number for Republicans is not Trump's overall approval but his standing with independent voters. The NYT/Siena poll found 69% of independents disapprove of Trump, up from 62% in January. This is the voting bloc that will decide competitive House districts in suburban Philadelphia, Phoenix, Atlanta, and Michigan. Sixty-four percent of Americans say going to war with Iran was the wrong decision, including 73% of independents.
Republican candidates in swing districts face an impossible dilemma: embrace Trump and lose independents, or distance themselves from Trump and lose the base. There is no middle path when the president's approval is this low. The result, in race after race, will be candidates who try to thread a needle that does not exist.