Abbott’s TX-23 Stall: The Strategic Value of Not Calling a Special Election

On April 14, Rep. Tony Gonzales resigned from Congress amid a sexual misconduct scandal. The sprawling TX-23, stretching from San Antonio to El Paso, has been without a representative for 33 days. Gov. Greg Abbott has not called a special election, has not announced a timeline, and is under no legal obligation to do either.

Compare this to California. Rep. Eric Swalwell resigned the same day as Gonzales, under similar circumstances. Gov. Gavin Newsom issued a proclamation the same day setting a special election for August 18. Two governors, two vacancies, two entirely different responses.

The difference is math. TX-23 is an R+7 district where Democrats have been overperforming in special elections. A special election in the current environment — Trump at record-low approval, gas above $4, Democrats leading the generic ballot by 10 — would be a genuine toss-up. The likely matchup, Dem Katy Padilla Stout vs. Republican Brandon Herrera (a YouTuber and gun manufacturer), would draw national attention and money.

Every day Abbott delays is a day the GOP preserves its 217-212 advantage without risking a loss in a competitive district. The next uniform election date under Texas law is November 3 — the general election itself. If Abbott waits that long, TX-23 will have been unrepresented for nearly seven months.

The Legal Framework

Texas law gives the governor broad discretion in calling special elections. There is no statutory deadline. The governor may set the election for any uniform election date, or may call an emergency special election on a non-uniform date. The next uniform dates are May 26 (the primary runoff, but the Texas Election Code makes this impractical for a special election) and November 3.

Abbott has precedent for both approaches. When Rep. Blake Farenthold resigned in April 2018 amid an ethics scandal, Abbott called a special election for June 30 — roughly two months later. But Abbott has also shown a willingness to let seats sit vacant when the political calculus favors delay.

The Candidates

The Republican frontrunner is Brandon Herrera, a gun manufacturer and YouTube personality with 4 million subscribers. Herrera previously challenged Gonzales in the 2024 primary and forced a runoff, losing by just 407 votes. He entered the 2026 primary runoff as Gonzales’ main challenger before Gonzales withdrew and resigned.

The Democratic candidate is Katy Padilla Stout, who has demanded Abbott call a special election immediately. Stout has framed the vacancy as an example of Republican cynicism: a party that claims to represent the district’s 800,000 residents while deliberately leaving them without representation to protect a House majority margin.

Five Vacancies, One Majority

TX-23 is one of five current House vacancies. The others are CA-01 (LaMalfa, R), CA-14 (Swalwell, D — special Aug 18), FL-20 (Cherfilus-McCormick, D), and GA-13 (Scott, D — special Jul 28). The net effect of all five vacancies is roughly neutral: two Democratic seats and one Republican seat are unfilled (plus two safe seats that won’t change the balance).

But the functional impact is significant. With 430 voting members instead of 435, the threshold for a majority is effectively lower. Speaker Johnson can afford exactly one GOP defection on any party-line vote. Every vacancy on either side adjusts that margin.

Abbott’s delay in TX-23 is the clearest example of how the vacancy game is being played in 2026. The residents of the district — many of them in low-income, heavily Latino communities along the border — have no voice in Congress while the political class calculates.