Final Call updated October 30, 2026 · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3
On October 29 we called this race for Rick Jackson by about 1, weighting the polling average most heavily. On October 30 we moved all of our final calls onto one published formula that weighs race ratings, polling averages and prediction markets equally. All three major raters call it a Toss-Up, Jackson leads the polling average by 1.2 points, and the markets give Bottoms about 62%. On that formula the markets outweigh the polls, so the formula itself, not an editor, now calls it for Bottoms.
The closest governor’s call on our board. A Bottoms win would flip the governor’s office after Brian Kemp’s two terms.
Rick Jackson, a billionaire backed by Gov. Brian Kemp, won the Republican nomination by beating Lt. Gov. Burt Jones 52.6–47.4 in the June 16 runoff. His opponent is former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms. Trump carried Georgia by 2.2 points in 2024, and Kemp won re-election by 7.5 in 2022.
This race is the cleanest test in the country of whether Georgia voters will split their tickets again. In the same University of Georgia poll for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff led his race 48–40 while Jackson led Bottoms 46–45. That gap is the whole story.
- Our call: Bottoms by about 1, a Democratic pickup. Confidence: toss-up.
- Polls: both the 270toWin and RealClearPolling averages show Jackson up about 1.2 points, but the newest poll, from Echelon Insights, has Bottoms up 1.
- Markets: Polymarket and Kalshi both favor Bottoms, at roughly 62–63%.
- Money: pro-Jackson groups have spent or reserved about $76 million on general-election ads, against about $8 million for Bottoms. Jackson has put in more than $108 million of his own money.
The final polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Jackson (R) | Bottoms (D) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon Insights | Released Oct. 27 | 508 LV | 48 | 49 |
| Quantus Insights R-leaning | Released Oct. 19 | 755 LV | 49 | 48 |
| UGA SPIA / AJC | Oct. 7–15 | 1,000 LV | 46 | 45 |
| InsiderAdvantage R-leaning | Released Oct. 14 | 800 LV | 49 | 47 |
Averages: 270toWin has Jackson 48.8–47.6; RealClearPolling has Jackson 47.8–46.6. The newest poll, from Echelon Insights, is the only one in this set with Bottoms ahead, by a single point. We gave little weight to an ActiVote survey of 400 likely voters with irregular “other” figures.
What the forecasters and markets say
| Forecaster / market | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Toss-Up | Oct. 27 |
| Sabato’s Crystal Ball | Toss-Up | Oct. 22 |
| Inside Elections | Toss-Up | Sept. 17 |
| Polymarket | Bottoms ~63% | Late Oct. |
| Kalshi | Democrat ~62% | Late Oct. |
Every major handicapper calls this a pure toss-up. With the ratings neutral, the call comes down to a 1.2-point polling lead for Jackson against a market lean toward Bottoms, and on our formula the market lean is the bigger signal.
Why we’re calling it for Bottoms
1. The newest poll and the markets agree
Echelon Insights’ poll, released October 27, is the most recent in the race and the only one with Bottoms ahead, 49–48. Polymarket and Kalshi both put her at roughly 62–63%. A 1.2-point polling average is well inside the margin of error; a 12-point market lean is not nothing.
2. The early electorate leans her way
Georgia had cast a record 1.78 million early ballots by October 26, and TargetSmart’s modeling put that electorate at 54% Democratic-aligned to 41% Republican. If Tuesday’s turnout looks anything like that, Bottoms is favored.
3. The enthusiasm gap is wide
In the UGA poll, 68% of Democrats called themselves “very enthusiastic” about voting, against 48% of Republicans, and independents leaned Bottoms 43–38. Polls of likely voters can miss a turnout gap that size.
This was our call for Jackson a day ago, and those reasons still stand. Jackson has led most public polls by 1 to 2 points for months, including the nonpartisan UGA survey. Georgia split its ticket in 2022, when Kemp won by 7.5 points in the same election that sent the Senate race to a runoff, and the UGA poll shows the same pattern this year: Ossoff up 8, Jackson up 1. Kemp’s approval rating is about 70%, and he backed Jackson in the primary. And pro-Jackson groups have outspent Bottoms’s side about nine to one on general-election ads. If the Kemp-style split-ticket voters show up again, Jackson wins.
What to watch on election night
Georgia’s polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern, and the state usually reports early votes quickly. The key comparison is the gap between Ossoff and Bottoms in the suburban Atlanta counties: if Bottoms runs within a point or two of Ossoff there, she is likely to win. If Jackson is holding a sizable share of Ossoff voters, he likely holds on.
Georgia requires a majority to win outright. No Libertarian made the ballot this year, so a December runoff is unlikely.
Every Final Call starts from one published formula: independent race ratings, polling averages and prediction-market prices, each put on the same −3 to +3 scale and averaged. Georgia’s governor race is a formula call. Only in Kansas and Iowa, where the formula’s lean was smaller than the disagreement between the polling averages, our editors made the call and label it as theirs. The margin is our best estimate of the final result; the confidence label says how sure the numbers let us be. See every call and the full method →
Frequently asked questions
Who will win the Georgia governor race?
Our Final Call is Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) by about 1 point, a Democratic pickup, with toss-up confidence. The polling averages favor Rick Jackson by about a point; the markets, the newest poll and the early vote favor Bottoms.
Why is Jackson ahead in the polls when Ossoff leads the Senate race?
Georgia voters split their tickets in 2022, when Kemp won comfortably. In the UGA/AJC poll, Ossoff led 48–40 while Jackson led 46–45, suggesting a meaningful number of Ossoff voters also back the Kemp-endorsed Republican.
Why did you change your call?
On October 30 we moved every Final Call onto one published formula that weighs ratings, polling averages and prediction markets equally. Jackson’s 1.2-point polling lead is outweighed by the markets’ lean toward Bottoms, so the formula calls it for her.
Could the Georgia governor race go to a runoff?
Georgia requires 50% plus one. With no Libertarian on the ballot this year, a December runoff is unlikely.
Bottoms by 1. The polls say Jackson by a point; the markets, the newest poll and the early vote say Bottoms. On our formula the second set wins, barely. Kemp’s split-ticket voters are the reason this is still a coin flip.
Sources
- 270toWin: Georgia governor polls
- AJC: Jackson has outspent Bottoms, but Democratic enthusiasm has the race knotted
- AJC poll: Ossoff leads Collins in Georgia’s U.S. Senate race
- AJC: Libertarians won’t be on the ballot in Georgia
- FOX 5 Atlanta: Georgia enters final week of early voting
- MultiState: Georgia governor race 2026
- Epoch Times: Cook’s final governor ratings
- Wikipedia: 2026 Georgia gubernatorial election