Maine U.S. Senate election, 2026
Candidates, November 3 election information, independent research links and where to find verified results. This is a candidate and context guide, not an endorsement or a prediction.
Our Final Call · Oct 29 projectionJackson (D) by 2Read why →The Maine Senate race: history, data and the final week
The publicly reported October surveys do not provide a consistent large margin: the October 16–20 Fox News likely-voter poll was tied 49–49, while the October 13–14 InsiderAdvantage and October 8–11 Suffolk surveys reported Jackson 49–47. A Trafalgar survey ending October 23 listed Collins 47 and Jackson 46.5 (unrounded), outside the frozen ElectionTracker sample. These are different organizations with different methods, not a single trajectory. The October 26 research panel remains a deliberately smaller curated subset.
How this state voted before
Collins won reelection in 2020 with 417,645 votes (51.0%) to Sara Gideon’s 347,223 (42.4%). RealClearPolling’s late 2020 survey list generally showed Gideon ahead. That historical miss cautions against treating a current survey average as a result.
Historic vote shares are descriptions of previous electorates, not a projection of the 2026 outcome. Senate and presidential voters may make different choices.
Meet the candidates
Troy Jackson
Troy Jackson is a fifth-generation logger, former state Senate president and longtime northern Maine legislator. He was selected by Democratic delegates July 25 after primary winner Graham Platner withdrew.
Susan Collins
Susan Collins has served in the Senate since January 1997 and chairs the Senate Appropriations Committee. She is seeking a sixth term and emphasizes her seniority and federal spending secured for Maine.
Background: race and candidate reporting.
Issues and documented contrasts
Jackson supports universal public health coverage; Collins opposes Medicare for All and points to legislation on rural health care.
The candidates debated Collins’s vote to confirm Justice Brett Kavanaugh and Jackson’s historical changes in positions on abortion.
Collins emphasizes her appropriations work; Jackson emphasizes affordability and the costs of utilities and essentials.
Issue descriptions summarize publicly documented campaign positions and debates. See source reporting for full context, statements and responses.
Race timeline
Collins first won election to the U.S. Senate.
Collins won 51.0% of the Senate vote; late survey averages had differed.
Democrats selected Jackson at a replacement-nominee convention.
The two major-party candidates participated in four debates.
New Fox News and Trafalgar likely-voter poll fieldwork completed.
Federal general election; ranked-choice procedures apply if legally triggered.
Ranked-choice voting: Maine uses ranked-choice voting in federal general elections when its legal trigger applies. First-round election-night totals and any later ranked-choice tabulation must not be conflated. Maine elections office.
Polls and polling average
Every public poll of Troy Jackson vs. Susan Collins we have tracked since Jul 7: 30 in all, 23 of them from independent pollsters that count toward the average. Updated October 31, 2026. Tap a dot for the poll’s details and source; switch to Margin for the clearest read on a phone. This is published polling, not a forecast.
Loading the interactive poll tracker… Every public poll we track for this race, newest first:
| Fielded | Pollster / source | Sample | Jackson (D) | Collins (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23–Oct 27 | Data for Progress | 652 LV | 50 | 45 | D+5 |
| Oct 20–Oct 26 | CNN / SSRS | 783 LV | 49 | 45 | D+4 |
| Oct 22–Oct 25 | Marist University | LV | 49 | 47 | D+2 |
| Oct 16–Oct 23 | Echelon Insights | 413 LV | 51 | 44 | D+7 |
| Oct 21–Oct 23 | Trafalgar Group | 1,077 LV | 46.5 | 47 | R+0.5 |
| Oct 16–Oct 20 | Fox News / Beacon–Shaw | 1,514 LV | 49 | 49 | Tie |
| Oct 13–Oct 14 | InsiderAdvantage | 1,200 LV | 49 | 47 | D+2 |
| Oct 8–Oct 11 | Suffolk University | 500 LV | 49 | 47 | D+2 |
| Oct 5–Oct 8 | Rasmussen Reports | 804 LV | 49 | 47 | D+2 |
| Sep 30–Oct 5 | Washington Post / GMU Schar | 800 LV | 50 | 46 | D+4 |
| Oct 1–Oct 4 | Marist Poll | 1,505 RV | 51 | 47 | D+4 |
| Sep 23–Oct 1 | CBS News / YouGov Excluded | 1,136 LV | 50 | 50 | Tie |
| Sep 29–Oct 1 | Trafalgar Group | 1,091 LV | 46 | 46 | Tie |
| Sep 28–Sep 30 | co/efficient | 1,240 LV | 46 | 48 | R+2 |
| Sep 25–Sep 29 | Maine People's Resource Center Partisan | 684 LV | 49 | 47 | D+2 |
| Sep 22–Sep 23 | InsiderAdvantage | 1,200 LV | 46 | 46 | Tie |
| Sep 15–Sep 22 | New York Times / Siena | 619 LV | 46 | 49 | R+3 |
| Sep 20–Sep 22 | Fabrizio Ward (R) / Impact Research (D) Excluded | 982 LV | 50 | 47 | D+3 |
| Sep 17–Sep 21 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 1,312 LV | 51 | 47 | D+4 |
| Sep 14–Sep 15 | Quantus Insights | 621 LV | 47.4 | 47.6 | R+0.2 |
| Aug 28–Sep 14 | UMass Lowell / YouGov | 650 LV | 48 | 43 | D+5 |
| Sep 8–Sep 10 | Rasmussen Reports | 1,033 LV | 46 | 45 | D+1 |
| Sep 2–Sep 8 | YouGov | 1,335 LV | 48 | 44 | D+4 |
| Aug 31–Sep 6 | CNN / SSRS | 880 LV | 48 | 45 | D+3 |
| Aug 26–Aug 28 | Abacus Data Excluded | 327 LV | 52 | 43 | D+9 |
| Aug 6–Aug 10 | Fox News / Beacon–Shaw | 1,000 RV | 48 | 46 | D+2 |
| Jul 27–Aug 1 | Hart Research (D) Partisan | 802 LV | 49 | 45 | D+4 |
| Jul 15–Jul 20 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 1,178 LV | 49 | 46 | D+3 |
| Jul 7–Jul 8 | Z to A Research (D) Partisan | 988 LV | 47 | 48 | R+1 |
| Jul 7 | Public Policy Polling (D) Partisan | 785 LV | 49 | 44 | D+5 |
Final-week research notes
The publicly reported October surveys do not provide a consistent large margin: the October 16–20 Fox News likely-voter poll was tied 49–49, while the October 13–14 InsiderAdvantage and October 8–11 Suffolk surveys reported Jackson 49–47. A Trafalgar survey ending October 23 listed Collins 47 and Jackson 46.5 (unrounded), outside the frozen ElectionTracker sample. These are different organizations with different methods, not a single trajectory. The October 26 research panel remains a deliberately smaller curated subset.
Polls measure surveyed respondents during specific field dates. Reported differences can reflect sampling, questionnaire design, sponsors or voter screens. They do not determine the November 3 outcome.
Source notebook
Selected sources for the editorial context and poll references. Survey source links also appear in the table and chart. Reviewed 2026-10-26.
Corrections welcome: corrections@electiontracker.live. This is independent informational coverage and does not endorse or forecast a candidate.
What to watch
Look for the first unofficial returns after polls close, where the votes are coming from, and whether a named decision desk has actually projected a winner. A projected winner and an official certified result are different things.
How certification works: U.S. Election Assistance Commission.
Election week tools
Poll-closing countdown · Editorial change log · Congress scenarios · All 14 race guides