Michigan U.S. Senate election, 2026
Candidates, November 3 election information, independent research links and where to find verified results. This is a candidate and context guide, not an endorsement or a prediction.
Our Final Call · Oct 29 projectionEl-Sayed (D) by 3Read why →The Michigan Senate race: history, data and the final week
The published October 21 Marist likely-voter figures were 50% El-Sayed and 48% Rogers. Newer third-party survey listings exist; the October 26 frozen aggregate does not automatically admit them before the original poll release is reviewed.
How this state voted before
In the 2024 Senate contest, Elissa Slotkin narrowly defeated Mike Rogers, 48.6% to 48.3%. Rogers is again the Republican nominee in 2026, but his opponent, the Democratic nominee and the presidential-year electorate are different.
Historic vote shares are descriptions of previous electorates, not a projection of the 2026 outcome. Senate and presidential voters may make different choices.
Meet the candidates
Abdul El-Sayed
Abdul El-Sayed is a physician and former Detroit health director who won the Democratic nomination for the open seat.
Mike Rogers
Mike Rogers is a former U.S. representative and the 2024 Republican Senate nominee, returning for a second statewide Senate contest.
Background: race and candidate reporting.
Issues and documented contrasts
Compare the candidates’ documented health care and cost-of-living plans, distinguishing legislative proposals from campaign statements.
2024 statewide Senate voting was close. Watch reporting by county rather than treating statewide polling as uniform.
Issue descriptions summarize publicly documented campaign positions and debates. See source reporting for full context, statements and responses.
Race timeline
Slotkin defeated Rogers in a close open-seat Senate race.
Gary Peters did not seek another term; El-Sayed and Rogers became nominees.
Marist published a new likely-voter poll.
General election.
Polls and polling average
Every public poll of Abdul El-Sayed vs. Mike Rogers we have tracked since Jan 6: 59 in all, 40 of them from independent pollsters that count toward the average. Updated October 31, 2026. Tap a dot for the poll’s details and source; switch to Margin for the clearest read on a phone. This is published polling, not a forecast.
Loading the interactive poll tracker… Every public poll we track for this race, newest first:
| Fielded | Pollster / source | Sample | El-Sayed (D) | Rogers (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28–Oct 29 | Rasmussen Reports | 745 LV | 49 | 44 | D+5 |
| Oct 24–Oct 28 | Upswing Research (D) Partisan | 505 LV | 50 | 45 | D+5 |
| Oct 20–Oct 27 | CNN / SSRS | 768 LV | 49 | 42 | D+7 |
| Oct 26–Oct 27 | Mitchell Research & Communications | 636 LV | 51 | 44 | D+7 |
| Oct 23–Oct 25 | Data for Progress | 622 LV | 50 | 46 | D+4 |
| Oct 8–Oct 23 | Michigan State University / Verasight Excluded | 1,383 LV | 51 | 43 | D+8 |
| Oct 20–Oct 23 | RedBox Research (D) Partisan | 2,696 LV | 49 | 44 | D+5 |
| Oct 19–Oct 22 | Glengariff Group | 600 LV | 51 | 45 | D+6 |
| Oct 21–Oct 22 | InsiderAdvantage Excluded | 1,200 LV | 47 | 46 | D+1 |
| Oct 2–Oct 19 | Michigan State University / YouGov | 836 LV | 48 | 45.5 | D+2.5 |
| Oct 15–Oct 18 | Marist Poll | LV | 50 | 48 | D+2 |
| Oct 12–Oct 14 | Rasmussen Reports | 798 LV | 46 | 44 | D+2 |
| Oct 9–Oct 10 | InsiderAdvantage | 1,200 LV | 48 | 46 | D+2 |
| Oct 6–Oct 8 | The Tyson Group (R) Partisan | 600 LV | 44 | 46 | R+2 |
| Oct 6 | Quantus Insights | 762 LV | 48 | 47 | D+1 |
| Sep 28–Oct 5 | YouGov | 3,949 LV | 49 | 48 | D+1 |
| Sep 28–Oct 1 | Z to A Research (D) Partisan | 483 LV | 49 | 42 | D+7 |
| Oct 1 | Mitchell Research & Communications | 682 LV | 45.6 | 41.4 | D+4.2 |
| Sep 28–Sep 30 | Trafalgar Group | 1,085 LV | 47 | 45 | D+2 |
| Sep 24–Sep 28 | Fox News / Beacon–Shaw | LV | 50 | 49 | D+1 |
| Sep 20–Sep 27 | Guidant Polling & Strategy Partisan | 800 LV | 48 | 43 | D+5 |
| Sep 24–Sep 27 | Marist University | 1,235 RV | 51 | 44 | D+7 |
| Sep 24–Sep 27 | The Tyson Group (R) Partisan | 600 LV | 44 | 43 | D+1 |
| Sep 22–Sep 24 | Big Data Poll | 678 LV | 47 | 42 | D+5 |
| Sep 21–Sep 23 | co/efficient | 843 LV | 45 | 45 | Tie |
| Sep 15–Sep 22 | New York Times / Siena | 605 LV | 49 | 44 | D+5 |
| Sep 19–Sep 22 | GBAO (D) Partisan | 800 LV | 48 | 44 | D+4 |
| Sep 22 | Rasmussen Reports | 1,099 LV | 47 | 44 | D+3 |
| Sep 18–Sep 21 | Cygnal / Beacon Research | 600 LV | 45 | 40 | D+5 |
| Sep 16–Sep 20 | Suffolk University | 500 LV | 47 | 40 | D+7 |
| Sep 15–Sep 19 | Torchlight Strategies (R) Partisan | 643 LV | 43 | 44 | R+1 |
| Sep 16–Sep 17 | InsiderAdvantage | 1,200 LV | 47 | 45 | D+2 |
| Sep 10–Sep 14 | Washington Post / George Mason | 803 LV | 48 | 45 | D+3 |
| Sep 12–Sep 14 | Emerson College | 1,000 LV | 48 | 46 | D+2 |
| Sep 7–Sep 9 | Trafalgar Group | 1,079 LV | 46 | 45 | D+1 |
| Aug 31–Sep 6 | CNN / SSRS | 843 LV | 47 | 44 | D+3 |
| Aug 31–Sep 3 | Glengariff Group | 600 LV | 44 | 46 | R+2 |
| Aug 22–Aug 28 | EPIC-MRA | 600 LV | 47 | 43 | D+4 |
| Aug 26–Aug 28 | Abacus Data Excluded | 332 LV | 49 | 45 | D+4 |
| Aug 10–Aug 20 | Michigan State University / YouGov | 779 LV | 50 | 45 | D+5 |
| Aug 11–Aug 17 | Susquehanna Polling & Research | 800 LV | 46 | 39 | D+7 |
| Aug 9–Aug 11 | Fabrizio Ward (R) / Impact Research (D) Excluded | 877 LV | 48 | 47 | D+1 |
| Aug 6–Aug 10 | GBAO (D) Partisan | 800 LV | 50 | 44 | D+6 |
| Aug 6–Aug 10 | TIPP Insights Partisan | 1,215 LV | 45 | 42 | D+3 |
| Aug 6–Aug 10 | Fox News / Beacon–Shaw | 1,006 RV | 47 | 51 | R+4 |
| Jul 24–Jul 31 | EPIC-MRA | 600 LV | 43 | 46 | R+3 |
| Jul 28–Jul 30 | SoCal Strategies (R) Partisan | 640 LV | 41 | 42 | R+1 |
| Jul 28–Jul 29 | Mitchell Research & Communications | 672 LV | 45 | 45 | Tie |
| Jul 22–Jul 24 | Glengariff Group | 600 LV | 39 | 49 | R+10 |
| Jun 29–Jun 30 | Quantus Insights | 947 LV | 45 | 44 | D+1 |
| Jun 15–Jun 22 | Data for Progress (D) Partisan | 709 LV | 47 | 46 | D+1 |
| Jun 11–Jun 14 | Zenith Research (D) Partisan | 602 LV | 45 | 42 | D+3 |
| Jun 11–Jun 13 | Mitchell Research & Communications | 827 LV | 47 | 42 | D+5 |
| Jun 2–Jun 4 | Tulchin Research (D) Partisan | 500 LV | 46 | 41 | D+5 |
| May 20–May 23 | TIPP Insights Partisan | 1,154 LV | 43 | 42 | D+1 |
| May 1–May 7 | Mitchell Research & Communications | 607 LV | 41 | 42 | R+1 |
| Apr 28–May 1 | Glengariff Group | 600 LV | 40 | 45 | R+5 |
| Jan 24–Jan 25 | Emerson College | 1,000 LV | 43 | 43 | Tie |
| Jan 2–Jan 6 | Glengariff Group | 600 LV | 41.6 | 48 | R+6.4 |
Final-week research notes
The published October 21 Marist likely-voter figures were 50% El-Sayed and 48% Rogers. Newer third-party survey listings exist; the October 26 frozen aggregate does not automatically admit them before the original poll release is reviewed.
Polls measure surveyed respondents during specific field dates. Reported differences can reflect sampling, questionnaire design, sponsors or voter screens. They do not determine the November 3 outcome.
Source notebook
Selected sources for the editorial context and poll references. Survey source links also appear in the table and chart. Reviewed 2026-10-26.
Corrections welcome: corrections@electiontracker.live. This is independent informational coverage and does not endorse or forecast a candidate.
What to watch
Look for the first unofficial returns after polls close, where the votes are coming from, and whether a named decision desk has actually projected a winner. A projected winner and an official certified result are different things.
How certification works: U.S. Election Assistance Commission.
Election week tools
Poll-closing countdown · Editorial change log · Congress scenarios · All 14 race guides