North Carolina U.S. Senate 2026
A sourced guide to the major-party nominees, ballot context and where official voting and results information will appear. This is not an endorsement or a forecast.
Our Final Call · Oct 29 projectionCooper (D) by 11Read why →The North Carolina Senate race: history, data and the final week
The October 11 SurveyUSA/WRAL–WSOC likely-voter survey reported Cooper at 54% and Whatley at 40%. Elon University/YouGov (fieldwork ending October 8) reported 52% to 39%. These are different samples and field periods, not daily tracking; the October 26 research panel remains a screened subset, not a forecast.
How this state voted before
Republican Thom Tillis held the seat in 2020 by 1.8 percentage points. He is not seeking reelection, so 2026 is an open-seat contest, not an incumbent rematch.
Historic vote shares are descriptions of previous electorates, not a projection of the 2026 outcome. Senate and presidential voters may make different choices.
Meet the candidates
Roy Cooper
Roy Cooper served two terms as North Carolina governor before entering the 2026 Senate race.
Michael Whatley
Michael Whatley is a former Republican National Committee chair and North Carolina GOP leader.
Background: race and candidate reporting.
Issues and documented contrasts
The contest pits a former governor against a former national party chair.
North Carolina election rules and deadlines should be checked with the state elections board, not inferred from national guidance.
Issue descriptions summarize publicly documented campaign positions and debates. See source reporting for full context, statements and responses.
Race timeline
Tillis won the previous Senate general election for this seat.
Tillis retired; Cooper and Whatley became major-party nominees.
New likely-voter surveys released.
General election.
Polls and polling average
Every public poll of Roy Cooper vs. Michael Whatley we have tracked since Jan 7: 43 in all, 30 of them from independent pollsters that count toward the average. Updated October 31, 2026. Tap a dot for the poll’s details and source; switch to Margin for the clearest read on a phone. This is published polling, not a forecast.
Loading the interactive poll tracker… Every public poll we track for this race, newest first:
| Fielded | Pollster / source | Sample | Cooper (D) | Whatley (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24–Oct 25 | Quantus Insights | 722 LV | 51 | 43 | D+8 |
| Oct 8–Oct 20 | ActiVote Excluded | 400 LV | 56.9 | 43.1 | D+13.8 |
| Oct 18–Oct 20 | Harper Polling Partisan | 600 LV | 49.4 | 39.1 | D+10.3 |
| Oct 1–Oct 20 | High Point University / YouGov | 620 LV | 54 | 40 | D+14 |
| Oct 7–Oct 11 | SurveyUSA / WRAL–WSOC | 643 LV | 54 | 40 | D+14 |
| Oct 8–Oct 10 | The Trafalgar Group | 1,091 LV | 48.8 | 40.9 | D+7.9 |
| Sep 29–Oct 8 | Elon University / YouGov | LV | 52 | 39 | D+13 |
| Oct 1–Oct 7 | Change Research / Carolina Forward | 829 LV | 50 | 40 | D+10 |
| Sep 30–Oct 3 | East Carolina University | 810 LV | 50 | 43 | D+7 |
| Sep 27–Sep 29 | Big Data Poll | 642 LV | 47.4 | 35.2 | D+12.2 |
| Sep 21–Sep 22 | Quantus Insights | 686 LV | 48 | 43 | D+5 |
| Sep 22 | Rasmussen Reports | 1,047 LV | 48 | 41 | D+7 |
| Sep 17–Sep 20 | Opinion Diagnostics | 857 LV | 51.3 | 41.3 | D+10 |
| Sep 17–Sep 20 | Fabrizio Ward (R) / Impact Research (D) | 1,115 LV | 53 | 42 | D+11 |
| Sep 15–Sep 18 | YouGov | 3,742 LV | 53 | 41 | D+12 |
| Sep 16–Sep 17 | InsiderAdvantage | 1,200 LV | 48 | 43 | D+5 |
| Sep 9–Sep 16 | High Point University | 706 LV | 50 | 42 | D+8 |
| Sep 13–Sep 15 | Harper Polling Partisan | 608 LV | 49 | 34 | D+15 |
| Sep 4–Sep 15 | Catawba College / YouGov | 885 LV | 47 | 35 | D+12 |
| Sep 8–Sep 10 | The Trafalgar Group | 1,084 LV | 48 | 42 | D+6 |
| Aug 31–Sep 3 | East Carolina University | 675 LV | 46 | 39 | D+7 |
| Aug 21–Aug 31 | Elon University / YouGov | 565 LV | 49 | 38 | D+11 |
| Aug 3–Aug 12 | High Point University / YouGov | 660 LV | 50 | 45 | D+5 |
| Aug 9–Aug 10 | Harper Polling Partisan | 600 LV | 52 | 39 | D+13 |
| Aug 3–Aug 6 | Change Research Partisan | 915 LV | 50 | 43 | D+7 |
| Jul 29–Aug 1 | Change Research Partisan | 967 | 50 | 41 | D+9 |
| Jul 23–Jul 31 | Elon University / YouGov | 466 LV | 53 | 42 | D+11 |
| Jul 23–Jul 27 | Fox News / Beacon–Shaw | 1,005 RV | 53 | 44 | D+9 |
| Jul 10–Jul 11 | Public Policy Polling | 759 LV | 48 | 44 | D+4 |
| Jun 15–Jun 27 | New York Times / Siena University | 601 LV | 50 | 43 | D+7 |
| Jun 1–Jun 10 | Catawba College / YouGov | 905 LV | 48 | 34 | D+14 |
| May 10–May 11 | Harper Polling Partisan | 600 LV | 50 | 39 | D+11 |
| May 4–May 8 | Change Research Partisan | 957 LV | 49 | 42 | D+7 |
| Apr 21–Apr 24 | Opinion Diagnostics Partisan | 830 | 50 | 41 | D+9 |
| Mar 26–Apr 6 | High Point University / YouGov | 703 LV | 50 | 42 | D+8 |
| Mar 31–Apr 1 | Quantus Insights | 987 LV | 49 | 44 | D+5 |
| Mar 22–Mar 23 | Harper Polling Partisan | 600 LV | 49 | 41 | D+8 |
| Mar 9–Mar 18 | Catawba College / YouGov | 1,000 LV | 48 | 34 | D+14 |
| Mar 13–Mar 14 | Public Policy Polling | 556 | 47 | 44 | D+3 |
| Mar 8–Mar 9 | Nexus Strategies / Strategic Partners Solutions | 800 RV | 50 | 32 | D+18 |
| Jan 31–Feb 4 | Change Research Partisan | 1,069 RV | 50 | 40 | D+10 |
| Jan 12–Jan 15 | TIPP Insights Partisan | 1,512 RV | 48 | 24 | D+24 |
| Jan 5–Jan 7 | Change Research Partisan | 1,105 LV | 47 | 42 | D+5 |
Final-week research notes
The October 11 SurveyUSA/WRAL–WSOC likely-voter survey reported Cooper at 54% and Whatley at 40%. Elon University/YouGov (fieldwork ending October 8) reported 52% to 39%. These are different samples and field periods, not daily tracking; the October 26 research panel remains a screened subset, not a forecast.
Polls measure surveyed respondents during specific field dates. Reported differences can reflect sampling, questionnaire design, sponsors or voter screens. They do not determine the November 3 outcome.
Source notebook
Selected sources for the editorial context and poll references. Survey source links also appear in the table and chart. Reviewed 2026-10-26.
Corrections welcome: corrections@electiontracker.live. This is independent informational coverage and does not endorse or forecast a candidate.
Race background
Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is not seeking another term. Former Gov. Roy Cooper and Michael Whatley are the Democratic and Republican nominees, respectively. The election also includes additional minor-party candidates.
What to watch on November 3
North Carolina polling locations normally close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern. Results can arrive county by county, and election-night numbers remain unofficial.
Reading a race call: Preliminary totals are unofficial. Media projections must name the projecting outlet; certification comes from authorized election officials.
Sources and election resources
Nominee and contextual information checked October 26, 2026. Follow these primary and independent resources to confirm changes after this review date.
Related coverage
ElectionTracker analysis of this race (check the article date) · Election-week update log · Official voting tools.
Any ballot or nomination change after October 26 should be checked against the state election authority before being reflected on this page.