Senate race guide / verified October 26 / November 3, 2026

Texas U.S. Senate election, 2026

2026 election week   Read our final predictions →   ·   Follow results →
Forecasts are opinions; election-night calls are separately sourced from named decision desks.

Candidates, November 3 election information, independent research links and where to find verified results. This is a candidate and context guide, not an endorsement or a prediction.

Our Final Call · Oct 29 projectionTalarico (D) by 1Read why →
ElectionTracker / Race dossier / reviewed Oct 26

The Texas Senate race: history, data and the final week

Fox News reported a 49–49 likely-voter tie; Emerson and the University of Houston published somewhat different figures on differently worded questionnaires. The ElectionTracker dataset uses the original first-choice measurement where identifiable.

2026 U.S. SenateNov 3 electionIncumbent not runningResearch snapshot · Oct 26

How this state voted before

Prior seat / related contest2020 Senate: Republican Cornyn won by 9.6 pointsHistorical data and context ↗
Last presidential election2024 presidential: Republican +13.6 points2024 statewide presidential margin ↗
2026 contextIncumbent not runningElection Day: Tuesday, November 3

John Cornyn won the preceding election for this seat in 2020 by 9.6 percentage points. In 2026, he lost the Republican primary runoff, so neither major-party candidate is the incumbent.

Historic vote shares are descriptions of previous electorates, not a projection of the 2026 outcome. Senate and presidential voters may make different choices.

Meet the candidates

DEMOCRATIC

James Talarico

James Talarico is a Democratic state representative who won his party’s Senate nomination.

REPUBLICAN

Ken Paxton

Ken Paxton, the Texas attorney general, defeated incumbent Senator John Cornyn for the Republican nomination.

Background: race and candidate reporting.

Issues and documented contrasts

Open challenger matchup

The sitting senator is not on the November ballot, making the historical incumbent advantage less directly comparable.

Survey questionnaire

Some October Texas polls ask a first-choice matchup and a forced-lean follow-up; these cannot be treated as the same result.

Issue descriptions summarize publicly documented campaign positions and debates. See source reporting for full context, statements and responses.

Race timeline

2020

Cornyn won the seat.

2026 Republican runoff

Paxton defeated Cornyn for the nomination.

Oct 15–19

Fox News conducted likely-voter polling.

Nov 3

General election.

Polls and polling average

Every public poll of James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton we have tracked since Jan 12: 71 in all, 43 of them from independent pollsters that count toward the average. Updated October 31, 2026. Tap a dot for the poll’s details and source; switch to Margin for the clearest read on a phone. This is published polling, not a forecast.

Loading the interactive poll tracker… Every public poll we track for this race, newest first:

FieldedPollster / sourceSampleTalarico (D)Paxton (R)Margin
Oct 27–Oct 30KStrat Excluded900 LV4845D+3
Oct 26–Oct 28Quantus Insights1,207 LV48.449.4R+1
Oct 22–Oct 28ActiVote Excluded400 LV52.147.9D+4.2
Oct 20–Oct 27CNN / SSRS923 LV4943D+6
Oct 23–Oct 27A2 Insights Excluded631 LV5047D+3
Oct 21–Oct 26YouGov Blue (D) Partisan1,000 RV5143D+8
Oct 23–Oct 26Data for Progress712 LV4945D+4
Oct 21–Oct 25Texas Southern University2,000 LV4947D+2
Oct 13–Oct 21Univision / YouGov1,000 RV5045D+5
Oct 17–Oct 21ActiVote Excluded400 LV5149D+2
Oct 20–Oct 21Rasmussen Reports965 LV4545Tie
Oct 1–Oct 20Verasight / VoteHub509 LV47.645.2D+2.4
Oct 15–Oct 19Fox News / Beacon–Shaw1,398 LV4949Tie
Oct 17–Oct 19Emerson College / Nexstar1,000 LV4846D+2
Oct 15–Oct 18Texas Public Opinion Research (D) Partisan969 LV5147D+4
Oct 15–Oct 18Pollfinity Research Excluded278 RV4843D+5
Oct 8–Oct 16CBS News / YouGov Excluded1,458 LV5149D+2
Oct 10–Oct 15Cor Strategies (R) Partisan1,409 LV4440D+4
Oct 10–Oct 15University of Houston / Hobby School2,000 LV4846D+2
Sep 30–Oct 14ActiVote Excluded400 LV51.948.1D+3.8
Oct 13–Oct 14InsiderAdvantage1,200 LV4849R+1
Oct 9–Oct 13GS Strategy Group (R) / New River Strategies (D)934 LV4944D+5
Oct 8–Oct 11Marist UniversityLV4745D+2
Oct 9–Oct 11Quantus Insights854 LV4747Tie
Oct 5–Oct 8ReconMR / Siena617 LV4844D+4
Oct 6–Oct 8Trafalgar Group1,086 LV4744D+3
Sep 25–Oct 5University of Texas / Texas Politics Project861 LV5047D+3
Sep 28–Oct 5YouGov3,625 LV5044D+6
Sep 21–Sep 30New York Times / Siena615 LV5145D+6
Sep 28–Sep 29Rasmussen Reports1,128 LV4645D+1
Sep 18–Sep 28UMass Lowell / YouGov850 LV4545Tie
Sep 20–Sep 28Guidant Polling & Strategy (R) Partisan800 LV4744D+3
Sep 24–Sep 28Fox News / Beacon–Shaw Excluded881 LV5149D+2
Sep 24–Sep 27Pulse Decision Science (R) Partisan800 LV4548R+3
Sep 24–Sep 26Big Data Poll698 LV4745D+2
Sep 22–Sep 24Stratus Intelligence (R) Partisan856 LV4848Tie
Sep 19–Sep 22Texas Public Opinion Research (D) Partisan1,007 LV4944D+5
Sep 17–Sep 20Marist University1,139 RV5044D+6
Sep 15–Sep 19Texas Southern University1,800 LV4746D+1
Sep 15–Sep 17Trafalgar Group1,079 LV4645D+1
Sep 12–Sep 14Emerson College1,000 LV4746D+1
Sep 12–Sep 13SoCal Strategies Excluded649 LV5045D+5
Sep 8–Sep 11ReconMR / Siena614 LV4943D+6
Sep 8–Sep 10Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy625 RV4643D+3
Sep 8–Sep 9InsiderAdvantage1,200 LV4746D+1
Aug 27–Sep 4Univision / YouGov1,000 RV4843D+5
Aug 30–Sep 1Fabrizio Ward (R) / Impact Research (D) Excluded895 LV4844D+4
Aug 24–Aug 26Overton Insights (R) Partisan1,167 LV5050Tie
Aug 21–Aug 24Texas Public Opinion Research (D) Partisan1,000 LV4842D+6
Aug 5–Aug 13University of Texas / Texas Politics Project1,200 RV4239D+3
Aug 9–Aug 10Emerson College1,000 LV4647R+1
Jul 15–Jul 31YouGov Blue (D) Partisan1,001 RV4845D+3
Jul 27–Jul 30Texas Southern University1,200 LV4745D+2
Jul 27–Jul 30Texas A&M University / ReconMR / Siena619 LV4743D+4
Jul 23–Jul 27Fox News / Beacon–Shaw1,006 RV5148D+3
Jul 15–Jul 17Texas Public Opinion Research (D) Partisan1,048 LV4540D+5
Jun 23–Jun 28A2 Insights Excluded618 LV4846D+2
Jun 19–Jun 27New York Times / Siena656 LV4747Tie
Jun 21SoCal Strategies (R) Partisan800 LV4749R+2
Jun 5–Jun 12University of Texas / Texas Politics Project1,200 RV4243R+1
Jun 1–Jun 4Texas A&M University / ReconMR / Siena807 LV4646Tie
Jun 3–Jun 4Quantus Insights800 LV4345R+2
May 27–May 28Texas Public Opinion Research (D) Partisan1,670 LV4744D+3
May 22–May 23Public Policy Polling (D) Partisan643 RV4538D+7
Apr 22–May 6Texas Southern University1,223 LV4545Tie
Apr 10–Apr 20University of Texas / Texas Politics Project1,200 RV4234D+8
Apr 17–Apr 20Texas Public Opinion Research (D) Partisan1,018 LV4641D+5
Mar 12–Mar 17Impact Research (D) Partisan900 LV4443D+1
Mar 4–Mar 5Public Policy Polling (D) Partisan576 4745D+2
Jan 20–Jan 31University of Houston Hobby School / YouGov1,502 LV4446R+2
Jan 10–Jan 12Emerson College1,165 RV4646Tie

Final-week research notes

Fox News reported a 49–49 likely-voter tie; Emerson and the University of Houston published somewhat different figures on differently worded questionnaires. The ElectionTracker dataset uses the original first-choice measurement where identifiable.

Polls measure surveyed respondents during specific field dates. Reported differences can reflect sampling, questionnaire design, sponsors or voter screens. They do not determine the November 3 outcome.

Open interactive polling analysisElection-night results centerPoll-closing schedule

Source notebook

Selected sources for the editorial context and poll references. Survey source links also appear in the table and chart. Reviewed 2026-10-26.

2026 Texas Senate candidate guideOriginal Fox pollOriginal Emerson release

Corrections welcome: corrections@electiontracker.live. This is independent informational coverage and does not endorse or forecast a candidate.

What to watch

Look for the first unofficial returns after polls close, where the votes are coming from, and whether a named decision desk has actually projected a winner. A projected winner and an official certified result are different things.

How certification works: U.S. Election Assistance Commission.

Election week tools

Poll-closing countdown · Editorial change log · Congress scenarios · All 14 race guides

New: independently calculated polling research
Inspect the dated Texas Senate survey inputs, field dates, publication links, and interactive aggregation choices in ElectionTracker Intelligence →. This is not a forecast or live result.