Final Call updated October 30, 2026 · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3
On October 29 we called this race for Ashley Hinson by about 1. On October 30 we moved all of our final calls onto one published formula. It leans Hinson by +0.30, mostly on market prices. The two main polling averages point in opposite directions, 1.8 points apart, and that disagreement is bigger than the formula’s lean, so our editors made the call. Why we made our two boldest calls →
An open seat: Sen. Joni Ernst is retiring. A one-point call is a coin flip with a slight lean, and a Hinson win would not surprise us.
Sen. Joni Ernst is retiring, and the race to replace her has become one of the tightest in the country. Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D) in a state Trump carried by 13.2 points in 2024. A Libertarian, Thomas Laehn, a pipeline opponent, is also on the ballot and has drawn between 2% and 7% in recent polls.
The October polls split almost evenly, and almost none falls outside its margin of error. Republican-leaning firms mostly have Hinson ahead; Marist, YouGov, Fox News and Echelon Insights have had Turek narrowly ahead, while NYT/Siena and Emerson have had Hinson narrowly ahead.
- Our call: Turek by about 1, a Democratic pickup. Confidence: toss-up. This is an editor’s call.
- Formula: +0.30 toward Hinson. Kalshi gives Hinson about 54%.
- Averages disagree: RealClearPolling has Hinson +0.6; Silver Bulletin has Turek +1.2 (as of October 29).
- Down the ballot: Democrat Rob Sand leads the governor’s race, 54–42 among registered voters in Marist’s poll.
The final polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Turek (D) | Hinson (R) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient R-leaning New | Released Oct. 29 | 1,020 LV | 46 | 48 |
| Echelon Insights (for NetChoice) | Released Oct. 27 | 403 LV | 45 | 43 |
| InsiderAdvantage R-leaning | Oct. 21–22 | 1,200 LV | 45 | 47 |
| co/efficient R-leaning | Oct. 15–19 | 863 LV | 46 | 49 |
| National Public Affairs R-leaning | ~Oct. 19 | LV | 44 | 47 |
| Trafalgar R-leaning | Oct. 13–15 | 1,094 LV | 44 | 46 |
| Marist | Oct. 8–11 | 1,100 LV | 48 | 45 |
| YouGov | Oct. 6–12 | 2,245 LV | 47 | 46 |
| Emerson | Released Oct. 9 | 650 LV | 45 | 47 |
| NYT/Siena | Released Oct. 3 | 606 LV | 47 | 48 |
| Fox News (Beacon/Shaw) | Sept. 24–28 | LV | 49 | 47 |
Echelon Insights had Laehn at 7%, National Public Affairs at 4% and Emerson at 2%. The two most recent polls split: Echelon has Turek up 2, and co/efficient, a Republican-leaning firm, has Hinson up 2.
What the forecasters and markets say
| Forecaster / market | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Toss-Up | Late Oct. |
| Sabato’s Crystal Ball | Toss-Up | Oct. 14 |
| Inside Elections | Tilt R | By Oct. 28 |
| Decision Desk HQ | Toss-Up (Hinson +1) | Late Oct. |
| Kalshi | Hinson ~54% | Late Oct. |
Silver Bulletin rated the race Lean D on September 23, the most Democratic-leaning forecast we found.
Why we’re calling it for Turek
1. The averages disagree by more than the formula leans
Our formula’s +0.30 toward Hinson comes mostly from the markets and one Tilt R rating. The two polling averages we track are 1.8 points apart and point in opposite directions. Swap Silver Bulletin’s average in for RealClearPolling’s and the formula itself flips to Turek by a hair. A call that hinges on which average you pick is a coin flip, and we chose.
2. Hinson needs a lot of ticket-splitters
Rob Sand leads the governor’s race on the same ballot, 54–42 among registered voters in Marist’s poll. For Hinson to win, a meaningful share of Sand voters has to come back to her, at a time when Trump’s approval in Iowa is underwater (44/53 in Marist, 42/57 in Fox News) and Hinson’s own favorability is underwater too (42/50 in Fox News). Splits that large are uncommon.
3. The early vote and the Libertarian
ABC News found Iowa’s early vote running about 18 points more Democratic than in 2024. Laehn, a pipeline opponent, is drawing up to 7%, and his voters are more likely to come from the right. On the money side, Senate Majority PAC’s $13.4 million reservation and $17 million fall buy against Hinson roughly match One Nation’s planned $11 million for her.
This was our call for Hinson a day ago, and the reasons still stand. Iowa polls underestimated Republicans in 2020, when Ernst won by 6.5 points. Trump won the state by 13.2 points two years ago, and a 1–2 point Turek lead is smaller than a typical miss in that direction. Most of the latest polls come from Republican-leaning firms and have Hinson ahead, including co/efficient’s new one, and the markets agree with them. And the ticket-splitting may be real: co/efficient, the same firm with Hinson ahead, has Sand up 4 in the governor’s race. Trump rallied for Hinson on October 22 and plans to return to Iowa on November 1.
What to watch on election night
Iowa’s polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern (8 p.m. Central). Compare Turek’s numbers with Rob Sand’s as results come in: if Turek runs close to Sand, he probably wins. Laehn’s final share is the other number to watch. Anything near 4% likely costs Hinson more than Turek.
Every Final Call starts from one published formula: independent race ratings, polling averages and prediction-market prices, each put on the same −3 to +3 scale and averaged. In Kansas and Iowa, where the formula’s lean was smaller than the disagreement between the polling averages, our editors made the call and label it as theirs. The margin is our best estimate of the final result; the confidence label says how sure the numbers let us be. See every call and the full method →
Frequently asked questions
Who will win the Iowa Senate race?
Our Final Call is Josh Turek by about 1 point, a Democratic pickup, with toss-up confidence. It is an editor’s call: our formula leans toward Ashley Hinson by a hair, and a Hinson win would not surprise us.
What do the latest Iowa Senate polls show?
They split. Echelon Insights (released Oct. 27) has Turek ahead 45–43; co/efficient, a Republican-leaning firm (released Oct. 29), has Hinson ahead 48–46. RealClearPolling’s average is Hinson +0.6 and Silver Bulletin’s is Turek +1.2.
Why did you change your call?
On October 30 we moved every Final Call onto one published formula. Iowa was one of two races where the formula’s lean was smaller than the disagreement between the polling averages, so our editors made the call.
Is Joni Ernst running for re-election?
No. Ernst is retiring, making this an open seat.
Turek by 1. This is the closest call on our board, and we made it against our own formula. The formula’s lean depends on which polling average you trust; the governor’s race on the same ballot, the early vote and the Libertarian on the ballot tip us to Turek. We’ve labeled it as ours and will grade it on election night. Treat it as a coin flip.
Sources
- 270toWin: Iowa Senate polls (co/efficient Oct. 29, Echelon Insights, Emerson, NYT/Siena)
- RealClearPolling: Iowa Senate, Hinson vs. Turek
- Fox News poll: Turek, Hinson close in Iowa Senate race
- Newsweek: Trump’s Iowa rally and the Hinson–Turek polls
- Political Wire: Iowa voters lean toward a split ticket
- Bleeding Heartland: outside spending and the Libertarian candidate
- Carroll Times Herald: $17M Democratic fall ad buy against Hinson
- Political Wire: Five Senate races are now Toss-Ups (Sabato)
- DeFi Rate: Senate race market odds