Iowa U.S. Senate 2026
A sourced guide to the major-party nominees, ballot context and where official voting and results information will appear. This is not an endorsement or a forecast.
Our Final Call · Oct 29 projectionHinson (R) by 1Read why →The Iowa Senate race: history, data and the final week
The October 11 Marist likely-voter survey reported Turek at 48% and Hinson at 45%, while Emerson (fieldwork ending October 6) reported 45% to 47%. That contrast illustrates poll-to-poll variation, not necessarily voter movement. The chart documents surveys by field dates and does not claim a day-by-day trend.
How this state voted before
Joni Ernst held this seat in 2020, winning by 6.5 points. With Ernst not running in 2026, the November ballot is an open-seat contest.
Historic vote shares are descriptions of previous electorates, not a projection of the 2026 outcome. Senate and presidential voters may make different choices.
Meet the candidates
Josh Turek
Josh Turek is a Democratic state legislator and former Paralympic wheelchair basketball player.
Ashley Hinson
Ashley Hinson is a Republican U.S. representative seeking the open Senate seat.
Background: race and candidate reporting.
Issues and documented contrasts
Unlike the last election for this seat, no incumbent is running.
Iowa public polls in early and mid-October use different samples and candidate-question formats.
Issue descriptions summarize publicly documented campaign positions and debates. See source reporting for full context, statements and responses.
Race timeline
Ernst won reelection.
Hinson and Turek became the major-party nominees.
Several new Senate polls released.
General election.
Polls and polling average
Every public poll of Josh Turek vs. Ashley Hinson we have tracked since Jan 11: 36 in all, 29 of them from independent pollsters that count toward the average. Updated October 31, 2026. Tap a dot for the poll’s details and source; switch to Margin for the clearest read on a phone. This is published polling, not a forecast.
Loading the interactive poll tracker… Every public poll we track for this race, newest first:
| Fielded | Pollster / source | Sample | Turek (D) | Hinson (R) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | co/efficient | 1,020 LV | 46 | 48 | R+2 |
| Oct 16–Oct 23 | Echelon Insights | 403 LV | 45 | 43 | D+2 |
| Oct 21–Oct 22 | InsiderAdvantage | 1,200 LV | 45 | 47 | R+2 |
| Oct 15–Oct 19 | co/efficient | 863 LV | 45 | 48 | R+3 |
| Oct 13–Oct 15 | The Trafalgar Group | 1,094 LV | 44.2 | 45.9 | R+1.7 |
| Oct 9–Oct 13 | GS Strategy Group (R) / New River Strategies (D) | 602 LV | 46 | 44 | D+2 |
| Oct 6–Oct 12 | YouGov | 2,245 LV | 47 | 46 | D+1 |
| Oct 8–Oct 12 | NPA Polling | 678 LV | 44 | 47 | R+3 |
| Oct 8–Oct 11 | Marist Poll | LV | 48 | 45 | D+3 |
| Oct 5–Oct 6 | Emerson College / Nexstar | 650 LV | 45 | 47 | R+2 |
| Sep 29–Oct 5 | CNN / SSRS | 801 LV | 43 | 45 | R+2 |
| Oct 1–Oct 4 | Suffolk University | 500 LV | 48 | 43.6 | D+4.4 |
| Sep 24–Oct 1 | New York Times / Siena | LV | 47 | 48 | R+1 |
| Sep 28–Sep 30 | Rasmussen Reports | 1,048 LV | 47 | 43 | D+4 |
| Sep 28–Sep 29 | Quantus Insights | 738 LV | 46 | 47 | R+1 |
| Sep 24–Sep 28 | Fox News / Beacon–Shaw | 1,008 LV | 49 | 47 | D+2 |
| Sep 22–Sep 23 | InsiderAdvantage | 1,200 LV | 47 | 46 | D+1 |
| Sep 17–Sep 20 | Marist University | 1,050 RV | 50 | 42 | D+8 |
| Sep 16–Sep 18 | The Trafalgar Group | 1,089 LV | 42.1 | 44 | R+1.9 |
| Sep 14–Sep 16 | co/efficient | 831 LV | 42 | 46 | R+4 |
| Sep 9–Sep 11 | Cygnal Partisan | 500 LV | 42.9 | 42.9 | Tie |
| Sep 8–Sep 10 | Rasmussen Reports | 1,031 LV | 45 | 40 | D+5 |
| Sep 3–Sep 8 | YouGov | 2,127 LV | 45 | 43 | D+2 |
| Aug 31–Sep 1 | Emerson College | 750 LV | 45 | 50 | R+5 |
| Aug 27–Aug 31 | Global Strategy Group Partisan | 800 LV | 46 | 42 | D+4 |
| Aug 26–Aug 28 | Abacus Data | 323 LV | 54 | 45 | D+9 |
| Aug 20–Aug 23 | Suffolk University | 500 LV | 41 | 45 | R+4 |
| Aug 2–Aug 4 | Emerson College | 712 LV | 45 | 48 | R+3 |
| Jun 15–Jun 27 | New York Times / Siena University | 600 LV | 46 | 48 | R+2 |
| Jun 23–Jun 27 | Fox News / Beacon–Shaw | 1,003 RV | 50 | 46 | D+4 |
| Jun 16–Jun 19 | Cygnal Partisan | 600 LV | 44 | 46 | R+2 |
| Jun 8–Jun 11 | Global Strategy Group Partisan | 1,000 LV | 47 | 45 | D+2 |
| Jun 3–Jun 4 | Public Policy Polling Partisan | 557 RV | 46 | 46 | Tie |
| Apr 3–Apr 9 | Echelon Insights | 377 LV | 46 | 45 | D+1 |
| Mar 10–Mar 16 | GQR Partisan | 1,200 LV | 43 | 47 | R+4 |
| Jan 8–Jan 11 | Change Research Partisan | 1,108 LV | 41 | 44 | R+3 |
Final-week research notes
The October 11 Marist likely-voter survey reported Turek at 48% and Hinson at 45%, while Emerson (fieldwork ending October 6) reported 45% to 47%. That contrast illustrates poll-to-poll variation, not necessarily voter movement. The chart documents surveys by field dates and does not claim a day-by-day trend.
Polls measure surveyed respondents during specific field dates. Reported differences can reflect sampling, questionnaire design, sponsors or voter screens. They do not determine the November 3 outcome.
Source notebook
Selected sources for the editorial context and poll references. Survey source links also appear in the table and chart. Reviewed 2026-10-26.
Corrections welcome: corrections@electiontracker.live. This is independent informational coverage and does not endorse or forecast a candidate.
Race background
Rep. Ashley Hinson and state Rep. Josh Turek are the Republican and Democratic nominees for the seat held by retiring Sen. Joni Ernst. The University of Iowa voter guide also lists Thomas Laehn as the Libertarian candidate.
What to watch on November 3
Iowa polls normally close at 8 p.m. Central (9 p.m. Eastern) on Election Day. County tabulation and canvassing are separate from media projections.
Reading a race call: Preliminary totals are unofficial. Media projections must name the projecting outlet; certification comes from authorized election officials.
Sources and election resources
Nominee and contextual information checked October 26, 2026. Follow these primary and independent resources to confirm changes after this review date.
Related coverage
ElectionTracker analysis of this race (check the article date) · Election-week update log · Official voting tools.
Any ballot or nomination change after October 26 should be checked against the state election authority before being reflected on this page.