Final Call updated October 30, 2026 · Election Day is Tuesday, November 3
On October 29 we called this race for Roger Marshall by about 3. On October 30 we moved all of our final calls onto one published formula. That formula still leans Marshall, by +0.34 on a scale where ±3 means every signal agrees. That lean is smaller than the gap between the two main polling averages, and the newest polls both have Hamilton ahead, so our editors called it for Hamilton. Why we made our two boldest calls →
Our formula scores this race +0.34 toward Marshall, one of the two thinnest margins on our board. A Hamilton win would be the first Democratic Senate victory in Kansas since 1932.
No Democrat has won a Senate race in Kansas since 1932, and Trump carried the state by 16.1 points in 2024. Yet Sen. Roger Marshall heads into the final weekend trailing in the two newest polls. CNN/SSRS has Adam Hamilton, a Methodist megachurch pastor, ahead 49–45, and a Washington Post-Schar School poll released October 30 has him up 52–43. Libertarian David Graham is also on the ballot and drew 4% in the Post-Schar poll.
Republicans are treating Kansas as a must-hold. Trump rallied for Marshall on October 19, Vice President JD Vance campaigned in Topeka on October 26, and Republicans moved money out of North Carolina to defend the seat.
- Our call: Hamilton by about 2, a Democratic pickup. Confidence: toss-up. This is an editor’s call.
- Formula: +0.34 toward Marshall, driven mostly by prediction markets (about 57% Marshall) and Inside Elections’ Tilt R rating.
- Polls: the two newest have Hamilton up 4 and 9. Silver Bulletin’s average had Hamilton +1.1 on October 29; RealClearPolling’s (Marshall +0.3) stopped in mid-October.
- Money: about $71 million in ad commitments, a Kansas record, with Democrats slightly ahead.
The final polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Hamilton (D) | Marshall (R) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Post-Schar School New | Released Oct. 30 | 801 LV | 52 | 43 |
| CNN/SSRS New | Oct. 20–26 | 838 LV | 49 | 45 |
| RedBox Research | Oct. 20–23 | 1,301 LV | 45 | 46 |
| InsiderAdvantage R-leaning | Oct. 13–14 | 1,200 LV | 47 | 48 |
| InsiderAdvantage R-leaning | Oct. 9–10 | 1,200 LV | 48 | 47 |
| Trafalgar R-leaning | Sept. 29–Oct. 1 | 1,095 LV | 44 | 44 |
| YouGov | Sept. 24–Oct. 4 | 2,252 LV | 48 | 45 |
| NYT/Siena | Sept. 22–Oct. 1 | 605 LV | 46 | 47 |
| Emerson | Sept. 15–16 | 750 LV | 45 | 43 |
The Post-Schar poll has a margin of error of ±3.9 points; its sample size is as reported by 270toWin. RedBox Research, in the field over nearly the same days as CNN, had Marshall up a point. Our formula’s inputs were frozen on October 29, before the Post-Schar poll was released. We rerun every race with the newest polls on Monday.
What the forecasters and markets say
| Forecaster / market | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Toss-Up | Oct. 6 |
| Sabato’s Crystal Ball | Toss-Up | Oct. 14 |
| Inside Elections | Tilt R | By Oct. 28 |
| Decision Desk HQ | Marshall 65% | Late Oct. |
| Kalshi / Polymarket average | Marshall ~57% | Oct. 29 |
The forecasters call it a coin flip, and the markets lean Marshall. That is the gap our editors are betting on: the markets haven’t caught up with the newest polls.
Why we’re calling it for Hamilton
1. The newest polls point the same way
Every poll since mid-September had the race within three points until CNN’s and the Post’s. Both are nonpartisan media polls, both were released in the final week, and both have Hamilton ahead, by 4 and 9 points. One late poll can be noise. Two from different pollsters pointing the same way are harder to wave off.
2. The formula’s lean is smaller than the noise
The +0.34 toward Marshall comes mostly from market prices and one Tilt R rating. The two polling averages we track disagree with each other by 1.4 points, more than enough to flip that lean on their own. When the inputs disagree by more than the answer, we would rather call it on the freshest data and say so.
3. This electorate doesn’t look like 2024’s
Advance voting is running at more than double the last midterm’s pace. The same Kansas electorate rejected the Republican-backed Supreme Court amendment 62–38 on August 4. Democrats lead the national generic ballot by roughly 8 to 9 points, they have more than $38 million in ad commitments here to Republicans’ $32 million-plus, and Hamilton raised a reported $10.6 million in the third quarter.
Kansas has every structural reason to stay Republican. About 44% of its voters are registered Republicans and under 26% are Democrats, so late deciders in a tied race tend to break right. Kansas Senate polls flattered Democratic-aligned candidates in both 2014 and 2020, and Marshall himself won by 11.4 points in 2020. The markets still give him about 57%, the Senate Leadership Fund is reported to be spending $14 million here, and Republican ads are hammering Hamilton’s sermons and his handling of a church-camp abuse case. If the polls miss the way they have before, Marshall holds.
What to watch on election night
Most of Kansas closes at 8 p.m. Eastern (7 p.m. Central); a few far-western counties on Mountain time close an hour later. Watch the Kansas City suburbs in Johnson County, the state’s largest: Hamilton needs a big margin there to offset rural western Kansas. Graham’s final share also matters in a race this close.
Every Final Call starts from one published formula: independent race ratings, polling averages and prediction-market prices, each put on the same −3 to +3 scale and averaged. In Kansas and Iowa, where the formula’s lean was smaller than the disagreement between the polling averages, our editors made the call and label it as theirs. The margin is our best estimate of the final result; the confidence label says how sure the numbers let us be. See every call and the full method →
Frequently asked questions
Who will win the Kansas Senate race?
Our Final Call is Adam Hamilton by about 2 points, a Democratic pickup, with toss-up confidence. It is an editor’s call: our formula leans toward Roger Marshall by a hair.
What do the latest Kansas Senate polls show?
The two newest have Hamilton ahead: Washington Post-Schar School 52–43 (released Oct. 30) and CNN/SSRS 49–45 (Oct. 20–26). RedBox Research (Oct. 20–23) had Marshall up 46–45.
Why did you change your call?
On October 30 we moved every Final Call onto one published formula. Kansas was one of two races where the formula’s lean was smaller than the disagreement between the polling averages, so our editors made the call on the freshest polls.
When did Kansas last elect a Democratic senator?
1932. A Hamilton win would end a streak of more than nine decades.
Hamilton by 2. Kansas has history, registration and the markets on Marshall’s side. The two newest polls, the early vote and the national environment are on Hamilton’s. Our formula leans Marshall by less than its own inputs disagree, so we’re making the call on the freshest polls, labeling it as ours, and grading it on election night. Treat it as a coin flip.
Sources
- Political Wire: Washington Post-Schar School poll, Hamilton 52–43
- PollCheck: Kansas Senate polls (CNN/SSRS, RedBox Research)
- 270toWin: Kansas Senate polls
- RealClearPolling: Kansas Senate, Marshall vs. Hamilton
- Emerson College Polling: Kansas 2026
- AP via ClickOrlando: The GOP is on a rescue mission in Kansas
- HPPR: Trump rallies in Kansas for Marshall
- Action Network: Kansas Senate polls vs. betting odds
- dnyuz: Three Senate races shift toward Democrats in Cook ratings
- Wikipedia: 2024 presidential election in Kansas